Hail in Pennsylvania, June 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in severe weather east of I-71 has increased for this
afternoon, with an SPC slight risk expected. The probability for
areawide rainfall and QPF > 1" has increased Friday evening into
Friday night. Confidence is increasing in a significant and long
duration heat wave next week, with heat indices likely near or
exceeding 100 degrees for multiple days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms east of I-71
between 3 and 7 PM today.

2) Areawide rain expected Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Heavy rain is possible south of US-30.

2) Significant heat and humidity builds next week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees, especially in Northwest
Ohio.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
Great Lakes region (noted on water vapor satellite imagery), with
its attendant surface low into west-central lower Michigan.

Morning convection still lingers near Youngstown area (as of ~18Z)
but should exit shortly. This morning's convection left behind
a slightly worked over environment, but broad southwest flow
should yield quick recovery of the atmosphere. Latest
mesoanalysis reveals pooling of low-level moisture and surface
convergence along and in the vicinity of the I-71 corridor,
which is confirmed by a building cumulus field on satellite,
especially the area south of Mansfield. This is likely where we
see convective initiation over the next hour or two (by 4 PM).
Convection will initially begin as a broken line and shear
vector angled around 45 degree to the forcing mechanism (pre-
frontal trough) may actually favor keeping things
clustered/multicellular initially instead of growing upscale
quickly. We are also seeing additional convection developing
farther west near the I-75 corridor and that may also continue
to develop further.

The combination of strong deep-layer shear and modest instability
expected will favor strong to severe thunderstorms with this cluster
of storms. Primary weather hazard will be strong to damaging winds
within the strongest storms, but large hail and a few tornado are
also possible, especially if storm mode can remain a bit more
discrete.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front swings through tonight, stalling just south of
the forecast area tonight. Low pressure that develops over the
southern Great Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley moves east-
northeast along this boundary and across Ohio Friday night into
Saturday morning. Overall trends in synoptic features has
trended just a bit farther north, with this forecast package
increasing the PoP and QPF forecast, with a slightly greater
risk of heavy rain and localized flooding for areas south of
US-30. We'll have to monitor trends in the system because a
further northward trend could yield greater impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper-level ridge builds into the eastern CONUS next week as
ensembles key in on location and strength of this feature. The
594 dam 500mb heights will be centered over the Ohio Valley, but
500mb heights will actually be most anomalous over lower Great
Lakes. This will result in significant build up of heat and
humidity through all of next week (at least Monday-Friday).
There is high confidence in most of the area reaching multiple
days of temperatures > 90 and heat indices > 100, with >50%
chance of temperatures > 95 and heat indices > 105 especially
along and west of I-71 (particularly the Toledo-Findlay area).

Sometimes confidence is a bit lower due to thunderstorm chances
but with the positioning of the upper-level ridge, it's
becoming less and less likely that storms develop at least
through Wednesday.

One thing to point out is that the impacts of heat tend to
increase with duration. Heat impacts will likely be at their
great Wednesday onward as we see consecutive days of extreme
heat and very little relief overnight (with lows in the low to
mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The initial round of showers/storms has exited the area. A few
showers with isolated embedded lightning are moving southeast of
KTOL. The best chance of showers this evening will be at inland
terminals early in the TAF period, but do not anticipate
significant or prolonged impacts to cigs/vsbys. Will need to
keep an eye on a cluster of thunderstorms that are moving into
the Canadian waters of Lake Erie that may clip KERI after about
03Z. If they hold together, they may produce a period of non-VFR
conditions and gusty winds. Expect a period of non-VFR
conditions in patchy fog/mist generally at inland terminals late
tonight into early Friday morning with MVFR stratus possible at
KERI during the same timeframe. Confidence in how low vsbys get
is somewhat low at this point, but generally think vsbys will
largely be MVFR with localized pockets of IFR. VFR will return
after diurnal mixing develops by mid-morning, although
conditions will slowly deteriorate as rain lifts northeast into
the area Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Southern
terminals will likely experience MVFR conditions towards the end
of the TAF period.

Winds will diminish and become light and variable tonight with
more easterly flow developing at western terminals late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR becoming more likely in
showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern into this evening will be the threat for some stronger
wind gusts associated with thunderstorms. Otherwise, generally quiet
marine conditions are expected through the weekend and into early
next week, though we will need to monitor wind trends on Saturday as
a low pressure system slides east through the Ohio Valley. At this
point, not anticipating northeast winds to exceed 15 knots.
Following Saturday, mainly light east to southeast flow around 10
knots is expected through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-262345-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
743 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ006-008-018-252300-
Seneca OH-Wood OH-Sandusky OH-
612 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SENECA...
SOUTHWESTERN SANDUSKY AND SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

At 611 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Gibsonburg, or 10 miles east of Bowling Green,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Fremont, Gibsonburg, Ballville, Pemberville, Bradner, Wayne,
Bettsville, Risingsun, Helena, West Millgrove, Burgoon, Kansas, and
Stony Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4129 8365 4144 8351 4139 8304 4126 8307
      4113 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 281DEG 23KT 4135 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
613 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             2 NE Bainbridge         41.41N 81.31W
06/25/2026  E1.00 Inch       Geauga             OH   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ023-033-252300-
Mahoning OH-Trumbull OH-
630 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TRUMBULL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MAHONING COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lordstown, or near Warren, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Niles, Cortland, Newton Falls, Lordstown, Kinsman, Vienna
Center, Hilltop, Leavittsburg, Austintown, Girard, Vienna, McDonald,
Johnston, Orangeville, Yankee Lake, North Jackson, Churchill, Howland
Center, and West Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 8088 4121 8100 4124 8100 4150 8053
      4149 8052 4121 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 238DEG 30KT 4119 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
758 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ018-028-260045-
Seneca OH-Crawford OH-
758 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SENECA AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tiffin, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, New Washington, Bloomville, New Riegel, Chatfield, Attica,
Republic, and Bascom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8330 4114 8283 4102 8283 4089 8292
      4097 8311 4099 8311 4099 8317 4107 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 290DEG 24KT 4112 8325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
840 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OHZ017-027-028-260115-
Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Hancock OH-
840 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WYANDOT...WEST CENTRAL CRAWFORD
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 840 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arlington, or 8 miles south of Findlay, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Upper Sandusky, Bluffton, Forest, Arlington, Sycamore,
Rawson, Morral, Vanlue, Marseilles, Carey, Benton, Nevada, Mount
Blanchard, Wharton, Benton Ridge, Jenera, Mount Cory, Harpster, and
Kirby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 8388 4092 8305 4070 8311 4069 8343
      4070 8344 4071 8349 4082 8351 4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 295DEG 25KT 4093 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

PAZ001-002-260300-
Northern Erie PA-Southern Erie PA-
1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY THROUGH
1100 PM EDT...

At 1023 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North East, or 10 miles east of Erie, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Erie, North East, Northwest Harborcreek, Harborcreek, Lawrence Park,
Wesleyville, and Northwest Harborcr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7976 4200 7976 4213 8010 4214 8008
      4217 8009 4217 8008 4215 8007 4220 7994
      4227 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 276DEG 30KT 4217 7990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04