Hail and Damaging Wind in Michigan, June 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
139 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning showers with isolated thunderstorms dissipate, then
thunderstorm chances rises again this afternoon; potential exists
for isolated damaging wind gusts.

- Mostly dry Friday with a chance for a few evening showers near the
Ohio border.

- Warmer and dry this weekend.

- Very hot and humid conditions are likely through the first half of
the next week as heat indices could exceed 100F; some opportunities
exist for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...

Broad troughing over the Great Lakes region will bring synoptic
scale lift to the area this afternoon. Daytime heating has resulted
in boundary layer destabilization and cumulus development this
afternoon. Weak convergence below midlevel dry air push may bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Michigan this afternoon
between 19-22z. The likelihood and potential decreases with southern
extent over Southeast Michigan. Kept Prob30 for the Detroit
terminals with a TEMPO for KMBS. Cold advection and nocturnal
cooling is expected to result in MVFR ceilings for the first part of
Friday.

D21/DTW Convection... The potential exists for -TSRA at DTW between
19-21z this afternoon with the greater potential across northern
portions of the airspace.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. High Friday.

* Low for thunderstorms early afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

Updrafts within nocturnal convective showers positioned along the
elevated instability gradient have largely failed to intensify early
this morning. This has led to very limited lightning activity with
both the initial and secondary loosely organized shower lines. Low-
end potential still exists for a few more rumbles of thunder through
the first half of the morning given antecedent conditions.

For the daylight hours, a mature surface low reorganizes as it comes
ashore over eastern Lake Michigan, tracking across central Lower
Michigan throughout the day. Meanwhile, sustained moisture transport
leads to rising instability as the day progresses, at least for
portions of the forecast area. Weak residual capping should erode
between 17Z and 19Z, and once it does, equilibrium levels could
extend all the way to the tropopause. Latest HREF, RRFS, and local
probabilistic data support instability metrics nearing 1 kJ/kg
during the diurnal maximum this afternoon, although moisture quality
issues may develop along/south of I-94. Highest 0-6 km bulk shear
located south of M-59 still appears displaced from the better
instability to the north. Regardless, expect a better convective
response from the Tri-Cities, across The Thumb, and southward toward
Metro Detroit. Overall coverage with this marginal event will be
isolated to scattered, but some organized storms still pose a low-
end isolated severe wind threat. Latest SPC Convective Outlook did
include a small Marginal Risk area tied to the potential for a few
discrete stronger cells, but the bulk of Southeast Michigan that
sees storms later today should be sub-severe. High temperatures will
vary from north to south, with better chances to end a 12-day streak
of sub-80F MaxTs across the southern portion of the area. This
occurs, in part, due to lower cloud cover and increasingly sparse
convective coverage. The system's cold front should be departing
between 21Z and 00Z, so subsidence should take over and quickly
suppress late evening activity after the boundary-layer decouples.
Upper Midwest high pressure builds in behind the low overnight with
mainly dry conditions expected.

Damping shortwave ridge works over the Great Lakes on Friday while a
low amplitude embedded trough originating from the Four Corners
lifts into the Ohio Valley. Most guidance now keeps all of Southeast
Michigan dry as the cyclonic wave's rain shield approaches the
Michigan/Ohio border, attributed to extensive column dryness and
weak ENE flow in the lowest 3 kft. Cannot fully rule out parts of
Lenawee and Monroe Counties getting clipped by some brief showers
(or perhaps just virga) Friday evening (see NAM 3 km and 12 km). Dry
across the rest of the forecast area with temperatures slightly
below normal with Lake Huron modification.

High pressure influence persists over the weekend with mainly dry
conditions and thermal moderation as height rises commence within
the backdrop of major longwave pattern changes for central and
eastern CONUS. Continental ridge amplification becomes much more
pronounced by early next week as the 500 mb geopotential height
center spikes above 597 dam near the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio Rivers. The composite ridge axis will drift slightly
eastward mid-week making Tuesday and Wednesday the hottest days of
next week. Air temperatures should have no trouble reaching 90+
degrees, and with a positively tilted progressive Pacific Northwest
wave getting steered back into southwestern Canada, a confluent low-
level jet tracing back to the Gulf will usher 70F dewpoints into
southern Lower Michigan. Expect heat indices to easily break 100F if
current trends hold as expected; therefore, heat-related headlines
will probably be needed. Convective potential persists in both the
possibility for MCS longevity and perhaps surface-based free-
convection.

MARINE...

A weak low pressure system will continue it's slow trek across
central Lower Michigan through this afternoon. This brings the
potential for some rain showers, potentially even some
thunderstorms, throughout this period. Winds are expected to be
relatively calm due to the overall weak pressure gradient of this
low pressure system. If any thunderstorms were to develop during
this time period they would be capable of locally higher wind gusts.
After this system departs to the east, a high pressure system is
expected to develop over our region throughout the weekend, bringing
warmer and calmer weather along with it.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......ZB/DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-260815-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Morning showers with isolated thunderstorms dissipate.

Thunderstorm chances rises again this afternoon, more so for the
Tri-Cities, The Thumb, and southward toward Metro Detroit. Overall
coverage with this marginal event will be isolated to scattered, but
some organized storms still pose a low-end isolated severe wind
threat. Latest SPC Convective Outlook did include a small Marginal
Risk area tied to the potential for a few discrete stronger cells,
but the bulk of Southeast Michigan that sees storms later today
should be sub-severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Very hot and humid conditions are likely through the first half of
the next week as heat indices could exceed 100F. Additional
thunderstorm chances exist during the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-260815-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Morning showers with isolated thunderstorms dissipate.

Thunderstorm chances rises again this afternoon, more so for the
Tri-Cities, The Thumb, and southward toward Metro Detroit. Overall
coverage with this marginal event will be isolated to scattered, but
some organized storms still pose a low-end isolated severe wind
threat. Latest SPC Convective Outlook did include a small Marginal
Risk area tied to the potential for a few discrete stronger cells,
but the bulk of Southeast Michigan that sees storms later today
should be sub-severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorm chances exist during the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

KGK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
235 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ063-251900-
St. Clair MI-
235 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emmett, or 7 miles southeast of Yale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lakeport around 245 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Fort Gratiot, North
Street, Avoca, Blaine, Fargo, Goodells, Ruby, Wadhams, and Brockway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4301 8240 4300 8242 4299 8242 4295 8274
      4306 8280 4317 8253 4317 8250 4318 8251
      4318 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 244DEG 32KT 4305 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Mann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ048-251915-
Bay MI-
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pinconning, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pinconning around 250 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 8391 4380 8411 4391 8408 4391 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 287DEG 11KT 4384 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Mann