What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 12:43 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue areawide.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week mainly interior and southwest.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 12:43 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue
areawide.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
remainder of the week mainly interior and southwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
A little extra moisture today, thanks to a stationary front draped
across north Florida, has lead to a little earlier development of
showers and storms today. Highest chances for the remainder of the
day will likely be over the interior and SWFL. Developing storms
could have the potential for strong, gusty winds as well as frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. Conditions clear overnight. By Friday
the stationary boundary washes out, replaced by high pressure
dominating the pattern once again. Friday conditions will still
favor showers and storms over the interior and swfl. However, winds
are expected to shift more easterly by Saturday as the high pressure
center pushes north of the area. With the wind shift, some relief
for the west coast could arrive, as rain chances increase towards
the coast in the afternoons. Luckily this pattern is expected to
stick around into the first half of next week.
Temperatures and humidity levels will remain high. With heat indices
reaching into the triple digits each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Overall VFR conditions expected. Only exception will be the
development of showers and storms near TAF sites. Storms will likely
remain east of most sites, however a few storms could move into the
vicinity of LAL, and SWFL terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Mostly pleasant boating conditions persist into the weekend with
winds less than 10kts and seas around 2 ft or less.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Though conditions remain hot, and mostly dry, fire weather concerns
remain low. RH values will stay above critical values.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 93 79 93 / 20 30 20 40
FMY 76 95 77 95 / 30 40 30 70
GIF 74 95 76 95 / 40 50 40 60
SRQ 77 94 78 94 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 73 95 73 95 / 10 40 20 30
SPG 79 93 80 94 / 20 30 20 30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...ShiveleyIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 25, 11:48 AM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
FLZ043-242-251715-
Inland Citrus FL-Sumter FL-
1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN CITRUS AND SUMTER
COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...
At 1247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Inverness Highlands South to
Bushnell to 11 miles southwest of Mascotte. Movement was northeast at
20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Inverness, Wildwood, Bushnell, Inverness Highlands South, Inverness
Airport, Lake Panasoffkee, Center Hill, Webster, Coleman, Suburban
Acres, Inverness Highlands, Rutland, Wahoo, Adamsville, Tarrytown,
Withlapopka Isle, Sumterville, Heatherwood, Gospel Island, and Floral
City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2896 8231 2896 8225 2888 8198 2882 8195
2855 8196 2851 8205 2853 8206 2852 8209
2857 8215 2857 8217 2858 8219 2857 8221
2866 8227 2867 8227 2867 8241 2898 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 209DEG 15KT 2871 8232 2865 8214 2848 8205
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TBWSpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 1:03 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
203 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
FLZ052-251-251845-
Polk FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
203 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Medulla, or 11 miles east of Fish Hawk, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Fish Hawk, Lakeland Linder Airport, Medulla, Greater Sun
Center, Mulberry, Bradley Junction, Alafia River State Park, Fort
Lonesome, Wimauma, Sun City Center, Willow Oak, Lakeland Highlands,
Boyette, and Winston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2766 8233 2774 8238 2778 8234 2803 8199
2773 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 230DEG 10KT 2780 8204
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TBWSpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 1:16 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
FLZ061-255-260-251900-
DeSoto FL-Inland Manatee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE AND
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Myakka City, or 15 miles west of Arcadia. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Myakka City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2735 8219 2739 8216 2734 8206 2734 8205
2733 8203 2726 8194 2719 8203 2717 8213
2728 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 229DEG 3KT 2728 8211
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TBWSpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 1:26 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
FLZ052-251-251900-
Polk FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL POLK AND
NORTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medulla, or 10 miles southeast of Plant City, moving north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Plant City, Bartow, Auburndale, Fish Hawk, Lakeland Linder
Airport, Fussels Corner, Medulla, Jan Phyl Village, Combee
Settlement, Mulberry, Inwood, Highland City, Gibsonia, Plant City
Airport, Winston, Crystal Lake, Lakeland Highlands, Willow Oak, and
Kathleen.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2780 8198 2781 8217 2791 8218 2812 8216
2817 8203 2813 8184 2804 8176 2787 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 193DEG 10KT 2790 8201
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TBWSpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 1:26 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
FLZ251-255-251900-
Inland Manatee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
226 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MANATEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Fish Hawk to 7 miles
southeast of Greater Sun Center to 7 miles east of Parrish. Movement
was south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Manatee and south central Hillsborough Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2760 8212 2755 8220 2751 8228 2760 8235
2771 8229 2774 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 347DEG 12KT 2770 8225 2764 8227 2760 8230
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TBW