Broad forcing for ascent in the left exit region of a 60 knot mid-level jet allowed for scattered thunderstorms in an environment with upper 70s temperatures and low 60s dew points. A sufficiently unstable airmass with 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-60 knots of effective shear beneath the core of the jet supported some storm organization with an all hazards day in discrete cells.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
Broad forcing for ascent in the left exit region of a 60 knot mid-level jet allowed for scattered thunderstorms in an environment with upper 70s temperatures and low 60s dew points. A sufficiently unstable airmass with 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-60 knots of effective shear beneath the core of the jet supported some storm organization with an all hazards day in discrete cells.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 12:50 PM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in localized severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind gusts has increased for the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area, and SPC has issued a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms accordingly for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. 2) A stalled boundary keeps rain chances in the forecast Friday and Saturday, with some potential for isolated heavy rainfall totals and instances of flooding. 3) High confidence in the development of hot and humid conditions next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level troughing swings across the Great Lakes into the northeast CONUS through tonight. Coincident with this, surface low pressure tracks across Michigan towards the Saint Lawrence River by 12Z Friday. This will push a surface boundary towards the Upper Ohio VAlley by this evening. Lift will also be supported by the left exit region of a 65 knot 500mb jet streak. 0-8km shear is in the 60-70 knot range creating long straight hodographs that are favorable for splitting supercells with large hail. There is broad model agreement on the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Ohio and far northwest Pennsylvania by mid- afternoon, with activity spreading east and southeast through the late afternoon and evening. Shear in the 0-6km layer is certainly supportive of organized convection, with HREF/REFS means of 40-50 knots during peak heating. However, there are limiting factors that should temper the severe weather threat somewhat. Surface dewpoints mainly in the lower 60s are forecast, which will inhibit CAPE levels somewhat. HREF probabilities of 1000 J/kg or greater are 30 percent or less across a good portion of the CWA, save for potentially portions of far NW PA/eastern OH where buoyancy could be a bit greater. MLCAPE of 500-1,000 j/kg along with the shear support marginally severe hail up to 1.25 to 1.50". Low level shear will be marginal for strong tornadoes, mainly in the 10-15 knot range during the daylight hours and increasing a bit to 15-20 knots in the evening. Steep 0-3km lapse rates and relatively high LCLs should limit tornado potential to 1 or 2 weak brief events at most. DCAPE values of 500-800 j/kg are marginally supportive of damaging winds, which would be more likely later in the event as merging cold pools provide more concentrated wind threat. What seems more certain is that heavy rain/flooding threats will remain largely squashed by sufficient storm motion and non- remarkable precipitable water values. KEY MESSAGE 2... As the front loses much of its upper support and becomes parallel to quasi-zonal mid-level flow, much of its forward speed will be lost, and it should eventually ooze to a nearly stationary position either in or just south of the forecast area, where it would likely remain through at least Saturday. Additional shortwave energy should provide support for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially Friday night and Saturday, with best coverage generally south of US-422. Severe weather risk from this activity appears relatively low given the daytime heating issues this pattern could provide. However, building precipitable water south of the boundary (1.7-1.8 inch values eventually) and the potential for training thunderstorms supports the notion of a risk for at least isolated flooding issues across the southern CWA into Saturday. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall covers much of the forecast area south of I-80 for Friday and Friday night. By Sunday, the front may more decisively nudge to our south, bringing an end to the heavy rain threat. KEY MESSAGE 3... The boundary is set to lift back north of the region Monday. There is broad model agreement on a strong 500mb upper high on the order of 597 dm forming over the Ohio Valley in the vicinity of southern Indiana. The main impact of this pattern is likely to be the season's first sustained run of heat and humidity, with the NBM indicating 70 percent or greater chance of 90+ high temperatures over most of the non- ridge areas Tuesday through Thursday. Accordingly, probabilistic Heat Risk guidance shows 70% or greater chance of Major (level 3 of 4) or higher impacts over most of the CWA. We have deterministic Heat Indices in the lowlands of 100 to 105 both Tuesday and Wednesday which are representative. Looking at the NBM Wednesday July 1st 21z Apparent Temperature percentiles, the 10th and 90th range from 93F-104F at KPIT, but for Downtown Pittsburgh the values are 100-115F. Those large spreads are typical and during heat waves the daily cloud cover and thunderstorms chances also cause uncertainty but the main message is hot and humid next week. Secondary to the heat will be the eventual reintroduction of some level of severe weather risk. Most likely, given the abundant buoyancy potential and weak flow, this would come in the form of typical mid-summer wet downburst wind threats. There is a lower-end potential for a suppressed ridge by the end of the week, which could create a upper level northwest flow setup, a pattern which has been responsible for notable severe weather events in the past. Of course, there is plenty of time to monitor for that potential. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued broken to overcast VFR decks remain most likely through the afternoon and overnight period in any area that is not imminently experiencing a storm. At the most recent update, timing for storms remain generally unchanged. A brief prevailing group was added this afternoon in the 18Z to 21Z window for storms at BVI, FKL, and DUJ, tracking upstream development and an anticipated upward trend in intensity. The main development window in eastern Ohio and northwest PA around the 20Z to 22Z hour, with chances drawing southeast, and ending for most by 04Z, save MGW were chances may linger longer. Gusty and erratic winds remain possible in any storm that might occur, with temporary MVFR/IFR restrictions. Where it does rain today, the chances of low fog and low cigs will increase overnight. Visibility restrictions are most likely and denoted at only FKL/DUJ for now, where locally dense fog will be possible. Elsewhere, there a 75% chance of a MVFR deck for Friday morning and a 25% chance of an IFR deck, with chances maximizing from 12Z to 18Z. Lifting is expected thereafter until restriction chances increase overnight Friday. Outlook... Starting Friday night, an active pattern is favored through the weekend featuring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms within quasi-zonal flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && DISCUSSION...Craven AVIATION...Milcarek
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-073- 074-077-078-WVZ001>003-261200- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence- Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington- Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio- 102 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the threats for large hail and damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the area, with the most likely area being along and south of I-70 Friday night into Saturday. Heat will begin to build in the lowlands by Tuesday and Wednesday with Highs in the lower 90s and heat indices of 100 to 105 possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. OHZ069-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ004-012-021-509>514-261200- Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 102 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. While thunderstorms are possible tonight, the severe weather threat is expected to remain north of the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Friday night into Saturday with local amounts of 2 to 3 inches and flash flooding possible. Heat will begin to build in the lowlands by Tuesday and Wednesday with Highs in the lower 90s and heat indices of 100 to 105 possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Craven
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1138 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-251745- Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion- Jefferson PA-Beaver-Armstrong- Including the cities of East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Kittanning, and Ford City 1138 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 While current showers moving through the area are not severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop around 3 pm in the Columbiana and New Castle areas and move along the I-80 corridor into the Butler/Franklin areas around 4 pm and over to Clarion and Punxsutawney by 5 to 6 pm. Large hail up to quarter to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along with brief torrential downpours. OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-WVZ001-002-251745- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum- Guernsey-Belmont-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Weirton, Follansbee, and Wellsburg 1138 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Ohio between 3 and 4 pm this afternoon and then move into east central Ohio by 5 to 7 pm. Large hail up to quarter to ping pong size and damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along with brief torrential downpours. OHZ068-069-PAZ021-029-073-074-077-078-WVZ003-004-251745- Noble-Monroe-Allegheny-Washington-Westmoreland- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Ohio-Marshall- Including the cities of Caldwell, Woodsfield, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Indiana, Armagh, Wheeling, and Moundsville 1138 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Ohio between 3 and 4 pm this afternoon and then move into southeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania including the Pittsburgh area by 6 to 8 pm this evening. Large hail up to quarter to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along with brief torrential downpours. Craven
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 135 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:22 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree down near intersection of Savage Road and Claysville Road.
Tree down along Corduroy Road.
Tree down on a home in Lashley.
NWS Storm Survey confirms an EF-0 with max wind of 75 mph.
Snapped tree knocked down a power line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Ohio, 2026Warnings in Ohio, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1353605, 1353583, 1353607, 1353608, 1353603, 1353609, 1353587.