Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, June 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
107 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Severe thunderstorm chances continue for most of the Panhandles
  on this afternoon and Friday. Higher confidence today.

- Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon is in effect today with
  highs around 105 degrees.

- Triple digit high temperatures expected Saturday through Monday
  for many locations, with potential heat products needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Quasi-zonal flow aloft currently over the combined Panhandles is
progged to get disrupted this afternoon with a shortwave. A
surface low will set up over the combined Panhandles bringing some
changes to the surface winds and Tds across the area. Leading to
subtle boundaries and increased surface helicity in the
northeastern combined Panhandles. As this low travels over the
area, surface winds are expected to shift to the north as a
subtle boundary (likely outflow from storms in KS this morning)
moves in. Another boundary (subtle surface trough) is expected to
divide part of the Panhandle between Tds in the upper 40s to lower
50s on the west side and upper 50s to 60s on the eastern. Also,
with subtle west/east difference in southerly surface winds.

Abundant mid level moisture is progged to exist across the entire
combined Panhandles this afternoon. Storms may first iniate off of
surface convergence along the northern outflow boundary while
picking up later from upper level support. However, some areas in
the central to southwestern TX Panhandle may still need to wait
on the potential arrival of this boundary moving south to initiate
as instability and Tds are expected to follow behind the
boundary.

Higher CAPE values are expected to exist north of the outflow
boundary and east of the surface trough. Instability around
1000-1500 J/Kg MUCAPE may still exist across the southwestern part
of the Panhandles behind the trough and ahead of the outflow.
Enough to get a good updraft and produce damaging winds with DCAPE
values above 1000 J/Kg. Higher confidence for hail will be north
or east of the two aforementioned boundaries wherever they may lie
as the upper level support comes across with better instability
and better shear. The best low level shear is expected to the
northeast of the surface low where the two boundaries meet,
leaving a 2-5% prob for tors mainly in Beaver County at this time.
Once storms get going will have to watch for interactions of new
outflow boundaries which can locally change the environment for a
new storm.

Although severe storms should end by 11 PM tonight, some lingering
showers and thunderstorms may last well into the morning for the
eastern combined Panhandles. Going into Friday, surface winds
shift to the north behind all the thunderstorm activity and
gradually turn easterly. Although speeds are not expected to be
very high, maybe 10 mph until the evening, the upslope nature of
the winds will help temperatures be held back a few degrees
compared to today. This should hold PDC floor temperatures to
around 100 and not 105. Mid level moisture around H7 is expected
to hang around and could lead to some scattered thunderstorms once
again Friday evening. The question is how much lift will be
present as suggested shortwaves are not anticipated to be nearly
as strong as today's. Will be monitoring for a severe potential
once again late tomorrow afternoon/evening. There is a bit of
uncertainty to the amount of effective CAPE that will be available
as models are showing some CIN and storms could potentially be
more elevated. The severe risk may be conditional with how much
the atmosphere recovers from tonight. If storms are elevated, they
are likely to not get very strong. However, damaging winds could
still be a threat as some onion shape forecast soundings are
showing after storms start.

Storms may start in the later afternoon in the northwest Friday,
with most of the area not seeing thunderstorms until after 7 PM
and lasting through the overnight. As the storms exit to the east
early Sat morning surface winds are expected to become
southwesterly and potentially pick up to the 15 to 20 mph before
sunrise. Overnight lows going into Sat are not expected to be that
cool with some lower 70s across the central to southeastern TX
Panhandle and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Upper level high pressure that has been dominating much of northern
Mexico and south to central Texas will begin to shift eastward
with southwest flow aloft beginning to move in over the FA
Saturday. During this time dry southwest winds will begin to move
in at the surface. This will create warm temperatures with much
more of the combined Panhandles reaching the lower 100s. PDC is
likely to need a Heat Advisory once again with temperatures
reaching 105 or greater. Although the NBM is not excited about
precipitation chances Sat night, H7 theta-e advection remains
elevated along a moisture plume extending from the southwest
corner of the TX Panhandle to the northeast corner. This moisture
may lead to potential isolated pop-up thunderstorm late Sat into
Sat evening. Therefore, have introduced a slight chance pop for
this area. If slouds form early enough in the afternoon from
rising air, afternoon highs could be held back ever so slightly.

This pattern is expected to persist through much of the extended
period. With temperatures only slightly cooling a couple to few
degrees Tuesday onward. This may be because of the increase chances
for showers and thunderstorms as southwest flow aloft pumps Pacific
moisture into the area increasing cloud cover at a minimum. The NBM
did introduce some 10-15 PoPs Sunday night slightly and have
expanded this just a bit more into the central to northeastern TX
Panhandle. This pattern of PoPs across a corridor of the southwest
to northeastern Panhandles is continued for Mon evening into Wed
evening.

Sticking with the NBM for the afternoon highs through the extended
period at this time. However, these values may be overdone just
slightly and will depend on the timing of cu fields forming and
potentially some thin high clouds as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of thunderstorm
chances through about 06Z. KGUY and KAMA have prob30 groups.
however, KDHT has lower confidence but may need to be amended if
thunder threatens the terminal. Southerly winds around 10-15 kts
may eventually turn to the north behind a surface boundary. These
winds are what is expected outside the influence of thunderstorms,
as there will be a severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon into
evening. There is a bit of uncertainty to the extent of potential
MVFR to LIFR CIGs heading into 12Z, but KGUY does have MVFR CIGs
progged at 11Z at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ005.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ003.

&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
108 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-260615-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
108 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for
portions of the combined Panhandles. These thunderstorms have a
chance to be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the
main threats.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon with high
temperatures reaching 105 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible on Friday, and again on Monday through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Friday could reach severe limits with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

Temperatures at or above 105 degrees are possible for portions of
the Panhandles on Saturday and Sunday, where heat headlines may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.