Difluence ahead of an incoming shortwave interacted with ample moisture across west Texas and southeast New Mexico, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area during the morning of the 26th. The biggest issue during the morning was training thunderstorms which, combined with heavy rainfall, yielded flash flooding for numerous locations.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Difluence ahead of an incoming shortwave interacted with ample moisture across west Texas and southeast New Mexico, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area during the morning of the 26th. The biggest issue during the morning was training thunderstorms which, combined with heavy rainfall, yielded flash flooding for numerous locations. Later that evening, storms redeveloped in southeast New Mexico and moved into portions of west Texas. Large hail and strong winds were observed with these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 10:13 PM MST, 21 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1213 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 - An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday. - A few storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with damaging winds over our western areas late this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region on Tuesday with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding tonight into Tuesday. - Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough continuing to deepen over the Desert Southwest while an upper-level low was located over the vicinity of east and southeast Texas. A remnant MCV was also moving across portions of west-central Texas to the south of Abilene early this afternoon, with scattered storms developing along this feature near San Angelo to our east. A warm and relatively moist easterly to southeasterly surface flow is in place over west Texas and southeast New Mexico with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees over our western zones and in the mid 50s to mid 60s over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to to develop over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in the upslope flow regime as of 130 PM CDT. Isolated to scattered convection will generally remain confined to areas west of the Pecos River and into portions of the southeast New Mexico plains this afternoon. Convective coverage should increase over western portions of our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening along and ahead of a shortwave impulse lifting into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico ahead of the upper-level trough over the vicinity of Arizona and the Four Corners. Will maintain scattered to numerous (40-80%) coverage of showers/storms over locations especially along and west of a Tatum-Pecos-Alpine/ Marathon-Big Bend NP line this evening, while generally dry conditions persist over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Can't entirely rule out an isolated storm over the far eastern Basin this evening on the western fringe of the MCV to our east, but confidence remained low enough to keep mention out of the forecast for now. Steep mid-level lapse rates, plentiful DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/KG, and modest surface-based instability will support a marginal severe threat with storms over western portions of our forecast area this evening with potential for strong gusts in excess of 50-60 mph with the strongest storms that develop. Precipitable water values also increase above 1" over our western areas this evening, so there will also be potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to spotty flooding/flash flooding of low-lying areas. An increasingly diffluent flow pattern will spread across the rest of west Texas and southeast New Mexico early Tuesday morning and into the day Tuesday. Deep-layer moisture and ascent will bring scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos region by early Tuesday morning with a good chance of showers/thunderstorms continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values between 1-1.4 inches will support a heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding threat through the day Tuesday, especially where repeated rounds of storms develop. Confidence in larger scale flash flooding was low enough to preclude a Flood Watch issuance with this package, but will continue to monitor given CAM trends of showing pockets of rainfall amounts of 1-2" (perhaps very locally higher) over portions of far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin through Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities of >1" of rain have increased to about 40-50% east of a Tatum-Midland/Odessa-Big Lake line. In addition to the heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential, we will also be monitoring for severe storms from the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Tuesday. Forecast soundings and CAMs indicate a zone of moderate instability with MUCAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG developing over this portion of our CWA late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. This instability along with 0-6 km shear up to around 40 knots will support storm organization and associated large hail and damaging wind threat over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday. A low level jet will strengthen over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by early Tuesday evening, which could support a low-end tornado threat with supercells that might continue into the evening hours. Storm chances should gradually decrease from west to east Tuesday evening/night as the shortwave trough lifts over the region. Highs Tuesday afternoon should trend below normal with the increased cloud cover and rain chances. Temperatures should range from the 70s to lower 80s over most of the region, except along the Big Bend/Rio Grande where temperatures will be in the 90s and perhaps over 100 degrees in spots. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return on Wednesday as weak upper-level ridging moves over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. However, shortwave impulses embedded in the flow aloft provides isolated (10- 30%) storm chances across portions of the Davis Mountains/surrounding areas and the far eastern Permian Basin. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to top out into the 80s for most, with 90s farther south along the Rio Grande. The aforementioned upper-level ridge builds over the region on Thursday and Friday, yielding warmer temperatures and highs in the 90s become commonplace. Though guidance is indicating that a dryline will set up somewhere along the New Mexico/Texas border and extend south into the Big Bend on Friday. This coupled with increased moisture and instability ahead of the dryline yield low (10-30%) chances of showers and storms across southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau, and western portions of the Permian Basin. By the weekend, long-range ensemble guidance shows southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft while the surface dryline remains positioned in our forecast area. This means that additional chances (generally 20-50%) of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 MVFR conditions or lower in regions of showers/storms through 11Z-14Z Tuesday morning at terminals, followed by another round of showers/storms 15Z-22Z for terminals on the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Main impacts of stronger storms at terminals will be heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding, lightning, damaging winds, and hail. In between regions of storms, VFR conditions with scattered to broken clouds can be expected. Showers/storms clear most terminals by 03Z-06Z Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 60 83 62 / 80 40 10 10 Carlsbad 79 57 87 60 / 60 10 0 0 Dryden 88 65 88 66 / 60 20 0 10 Fort Stockton 82 60 87 63 / 60 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 56 80 60 / 50 10 0 0 Hobbs 74 55 84 57 / 70 20 10 0 Marfa 81 50 85 52 / 40 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 60 83 62 / 80 20 0 0 Odessa 77 60 83 63 / 80 20 0 0 Wink 79 59 86 62 / 70 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...94
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
841 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
TXZ275>277-260230-
Chinati Mountains TX-Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
841 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...
At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Candelaria, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Marfa and Marfa Municipal Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3007 10442 3029 10459 3055 10428 3035 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 232DEG 23KT 3023 10442
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
956 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
TXZ276-279-281-282-260345-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
956 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...
At 956 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Lajitas, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Study Butte and Terlingua.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2929 10388 2947 10390 2964 10351 2931 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 256DEG 15KT 2940 10380
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
13The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:33 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Half Dollar Size Hail was reported approximately 3 blocks away from the Fire Department in Lovington. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
Trained spotter found dime to quarter sized hail on the ground along U.S. Highway 62/180. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1330092, 1330093.