What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 7:26 PM EST, 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening, with an isolated flash flood threat, especially across the NC foothills. 2. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the weekend. Drier conditions may return briefly on Friday but confidence is low. We will have a better shot at dry weather early next week as high pressure builds in from the north.
Area forecast discussion, May 25, 7:26 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
826 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening, with
an isolated flash flood threat, especially across the NC foothills.
2. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into
the weekend. Drier conditions may return briefly on Friday but
confidence is low. We will have a better shot at dry weather
early next week as high pressure builds in from the north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening,
with an isolated flash flood threat, especially across the NC
foothills.
There will be a higher threat for isolated, localized flash flooding
thanks to wet antecedent conditions through the evening. Rainfall
amounts through 12Z Tuesday look to mostly range from an 0.25-1"
east of the mountains and ~0.50-1.5" across the mountains. Locally
higher rainfall amounts up to 1.5-2" are possible east of the
mountains but will be dependent on where the heaviest downpours
track/train. Across the mountains, locally higher amounts of 2-3+"
appear to be confined to the northern escarpment per the 12Z
HRRR/NAMNest. The 12Z REFS shows a 20% to 40% chance of rainfall
greater than 2.5" along the northern escarpment. Although these
probabilities are fairly low, there is still a low-end concern for
highly localized flash flooding across this area in particular if
these higher rainfall amounts were to materialize due to
training/slow storm movement. Went with WPC for QPF through tonight
as this matched up better with high-res guidance trends compared to
the NBM. With this threat expected to remain highly localized, opted
not to issue a Flash Flood Watch as this product is reserved for
more widespread heavy rain/flash flood events.
Patchy fog and low stratus should return again overnight with a
moist airmass lingering in place. Highs this afternoon will end up
near to just below normal with lows tonight ending up 7-10 degrees
above normal thanks to cloud cover and rain.
Key message 2: Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
into the weekend. Drier conditions may return briefly on Friday but
confidence is low. We will have a better shot at dry weather early
next week as high pressure builds in from the north.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms (mainly during the
afternoon/evening hours) will continue through Wednesday as an upper
ridge centered offshore the southeast coast in the western Atlantic
works with an upper low over the West Coast to pull in moisture from
the Gulf. Convective chances will linger through Thursday as a
backdoor cold front tracks across the forecast area. Brief drying
may develop behind the front on Friday as dry high pressure attempts
to briefly build in from the north but confidence is low with the
high expected to gradually weaken. The front will stall across the
southeast through the weekend keeping shower and thunderstorm
chances around. Global model guidance is now showing the potential
for drier conditions to return as early as Sunday, lingering into
early next week. However, confidence is low with this being towards
the end of the forecast period. Highs should end up near normal to
just below normal Tuesday afternoon, becoming near normal to just
above normal Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Thursday ahead of the
front will end up a few degrees above normal before dropping to a
few degrees below normal Friday behind the front. Cold air damming
looks to develop this weekend into early next week so highs should
end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Depending on the strength of the
wedge, as well as how widespread rain ends up being, highs may trend
even cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Multiple areas of showers with embedded
thunderstorms are ongoing across the Terminal Forecast Area
this evening. TS coverage is such that tempos for SHRA are mostly
favored this evening, with TSRA carried at KHKY and KAND, which are
under the most immediate threat of storms. Periods of restricted
(mostly MVFR) visby are expected with the SHRA, with as low as
1-2SM possible in TS and heavier SHRA. Convection is forecast
to begin tapering off from late evening into the overnight, but
isolated/widely scattered showers are possible at any location/time.
Otherwise, low clouds are expected to begin filling in in
conjunction with the diminishing convection late this evening
into the overnight. Reduced visby in BR is also anticipated,
and could reduce to IFR in locations that receive heavy rain this
evening. Conditions should improve to MVFR by late Tue morning, then
to VFR at most sites during the afternoon. Diurnal convection will
again fire during the afternoon, with Prob30s for TSRA warranted
at all TAF sites.
Outlook: The pattern remains unsettled through the workweek with
at least scattered diurnal convection expected each day (possibly
persisting into the overnight hours) and lowered visibility and
ceilings forecast each night.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
AR/JDL
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 25, 4:58 PM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
SCZ012-013-019-109-252245-
Laurens SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Greenwood SC-Union SC-
558 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LAURENS...SOUTH CENTRAL
SPARTANBURG...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...
At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Laurens, or 5 miles northeast of Waterloo, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Laurens, Clinton, Ware Shoals, Joanna, Gray Court, Cross
Hill, Cokesbury, Waterloo, and Hodges.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3424 8226 3438 8229 3441 8225 3445 8228
3446 8231 3448 8231 3468 8204 3471 8184
3454 8167 3412 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 207DEG 22KT 3442 8200
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial weather statement, May 25, 5:55 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
655 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
SCZ008-012-013-108-109-252345-
Cherokee SC-Northern Spartanburg SC-Laurens SC-
Southern Spartanburg SC-Union SC-
655 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS...SPARTANBURG...
CHEROKEE AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...
At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Spartanburg, or over Croft State Park, moving
north at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Union, Laurens, Clinton, Boiling Springs SC,
Woodruff, Duncan, Lyman, and Pacolet.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3444 8194 3466 8217 3473 8218 3478 8215
3482 8219 3519 8222 3517 8145 3442 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 193DEG 40KT 3487 8185
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial weather statement, May 25, 6:28 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
728 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-260000-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-
728 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ELBERT...EASTERN HART...
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND WEST CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM EDT...
At 728 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Hartwell, or 5 miles west of Iva, moving north at 45
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Elberton, Hartwell, Homeland Park, Iva, Lake Secession,
Starr, Lowndesville, Anderson Airport, and Russell State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or post it to X using hashtag nwsgsp.
Your message should describe the event and the specific location
where it occurred.
&&
LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8284 3398 8286 3401 8291
3401 8294 3403 8294 3404 8295 3404 8298
3410 8303 3450 8289 3454 8265 3436 8250
3397 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 201DEG 40KT 3430 8275
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial weather statement, May 25, 7:23 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
823 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
NCZ035-056-068-502-504-506-508-260115-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Catawba NC-
823 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT WESTERN
CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...RUTHERFORD...ALEXANDER...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...
At 822 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles southeast of Morganton, or 5 miles
northeast of South Mountains State Park, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Taylorsville, Morganton, Lenoir,
St. Stephens, Longview, Sawmills, and Granite Falls.
Extreme rainfall rates in excess of 3 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or post it to X
using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.
&&
&&
LAT...LON 3602 8108 3582 8110 3557 8146 3557 8153
3555 8151 3553 8151 3523 8193 3540 8213
3601 8134 3600 8133 3602 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 227DEG 44KT 3564 8157
CP