9 inch range across the Southside area of Virginia per Storm Prediction Center Meso-analysis. Abundant daytime heating allowed CAPE values to reach in excess of 1,500 J/kg during the evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Deep moisture pooled across the lower Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon and evening of the 25th ahead of a slow-moving cold front situated near the Ohio River, with precipitable water values reaching into the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range across the Southside area of Virginia per Storm Prediction Center Meso-analysis. Abundant daytime heating allowed CAPE values to reach in excess of 1,500 J/kg during the evening. A line of slow-moving thunderstorms developed along a nearly-stationary surface trough that extended from Carroll County through central Halifax and Charlotte Counties, with multiple cells observed training along this boundary. The heaviest rain was observed within the Polecat Creek and Miry Creek basins, where nearly 5.5 inches fell within a 3-hour period. Multiple cells were estimated by radar to be producing rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour. Cells began to develop over the basins at around 6:00 pm EDT, with training reaching a maximum at around 8:00 pm EDT. Despite dry antecedent conditions with D3: Extreme Drought highlighted for all of Halifax County by the U.S. Drought Monitor, MRMS FLASH data estimated the rainfall reached the 200-year Average Recurrence Interval ceiling for a 3-hour duration along a east-west strip within the west-central portion of the county, with rainfall totals reaching 150 percent of the 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance. CREST Unit Streamflow ranged from 350 to 650 cfs per mi^2 during the storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:51 PM EST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 251 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Very little change in forecast philosophy, with focus on period shower/storm threat through Wednesday and drying trend for the end of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm & humid conditions keep rain in the forecast through late Wednesday, with localized flooding possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: Mainly dry for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm & humid conditions keep rain in the forecast through late Wednesday, with localized flooding possible. Area to watch this evening is the southern Blue Ridge foothills and piedmont where increasing instability across the Carolinas is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Combination of convergence along diffuse frontal boundary over the area and steady flux of moisture into the region from the south is expected to sustain development of scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. Regional soundings are quite moist with PWAT values between 1.50 to 2.00. Convective allowing models suggest the strongest of the activity late this afternoon and evening to develop along and east of the Blue Ridge with potential for thunderstorm clusters to bring localized heavy rain to the southern and eastern CWA, especially along the NC/VA border into the piedmont. General consensus in lieu of drought and high FFG values, is to hold off on flash flood headlines other than to advertise gully washer type rainfall rates (2-3" an hour). We desperately need the rain, so unless there is any training of storm cells, the activity should move along fast enough to forgo anything other than localized flash flooding. A quasi stationary front will remain over the region through late Wednesday. Prevailing southerly flow from the Central Gulf Coast will allow for the advection of a mid-level short-wave out of the Gulf and across the Mid- Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday...a feature that will likely enhance the convergence along the stationary front and aid in several more days of periodic rainfall. Since the origin of the moisture is from the tropics, expecting environmental soundings to remain very moist (+2 to +3 standard deviations above normal) and supporting a continuation of episodic heavy rainfall. As mentioned before, due to the potential for locally high rain rates with some of the stronger storms, it is possible for isolated instances of 3" to 4" of rain to fall over a short period of time, resulting localized flooding even despite recent severe dryness. As such, the Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight the lower Mid- Atlantic in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the entire forecast area through Wednesday, the most vulnerable being urban, low-lying and flood prone areas. To a lesser concern are the rivers, but multiple days of thunderstorm activity can lead to rises on the larger streams too. Even if they do not flood, those near rivers and streams need to be alert for sudden rises. KEY MESSAGE 2: Mainly dry for the end of the week. Model consensus is for high pressure to build south across the Great Lakes Thursday promoting northerly flow and pushing the deeper moisture south of our region. Confidence is increasing on a dry ending to the week and possibly the weekend with shower and storm chances decreasing. Depending on how far south the high makes inroads, temperatures could end up below normal to kick off June. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings this afternoon with a few pockets of LIFR and low end VFR. Patchy light rain continues across much of the northern half of the region with a wide of visibilities. Most locations though across the region have VFR visibilities. As we progress through the late afternoon and into the early evening, we are expecting a gradual improvement on average across the region, with more spots touching the low end of VFR, especially across the southern half of the region. We may also start to see some stray thunderstorms where enough breaks might form in the overcast for surface heating to prompt deeper convection. However, as we progress through the overnight, ceilings are again expected to trend lower, likewise with visibilities are more area start experiencing mist/fog. On Tuesday, ceilings again will gradually trend for mainly LIFR/IFR to higher categories as the morning progresses, with most areas MVFR by the early afternoon. Showers will still be commonplace with perhaps some isolated afternoon storms. Winds through the period will generally be calm to light and variable or light south to southwest. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Plenty of moisture progressing into a stalled frontal boundary will help keep showers and sub-VFR conditions in the forecast through at least Wednesday. As we progress into Thursday thru Saturday, the front is expected to sag south as drier high pressure arrives from the north. Look for limited chances of precipitation, or chances primarily across southern portions of the region, and mainly VFR conditions. Some late night/early morning fog will possible. Likewise, sub-VFR conditions may continue over mainly southern parts of the area where the best chances of rain will be located. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...DS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 256 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026 VAZ020-WVZ507-508-261900- Bath-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 256 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as multiple rounds of rain, at times heavy, will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding may occur with storms producing high rainfall rates, or where storms pass over the same locations repeatedly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-261900- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- 256 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall today. A few storms will produce high rainfall rates that could result in localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as multiple rounds of rain, at times heavy, will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding may occur with storms producing high rainfall rates, or where storms pass over the same locations repeatedly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:25 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A personal weather station (KVAHALIF22) observed a total of 4.1 inches of rain falling in about 3.5 hours, with 3.7 inches observed falling in a little over 90 minutes from 7:24 pm EDT to 9 pm EDT. Rainfall rates during that time frequent exceeded 3 inches per hour. Runoff from this location drains into Miry Creek.
Chatham Road was observed flooded and impassible as heavy rain caused Polecat Creek to rise out of its banks several inches deep across the roadway surface. No damage was observed to the road, which was reopened to traffic after the flooding receded.
Less than 2 inches of rain caused Poplar Creek to flood out of its banks across Summit Drive near Railroad Avenue. This a location that is prone to frequent flooding with marginal rainfall totals due to the design of the road. No damage was observed to the roadway, which was open to traffic after the water receded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1326473, 1326447, 1326459.