Widespread, slow-moving showers and storms trained over the same areas and resulted in locally heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding across central and eastern Virginia on May 25.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Widespread, slow-moving showers and storms trained over the same areas and resulted in locally heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding across central and eastern Virginia on May 25.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 10:51 AM EST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1151 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion, minimal changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers increase in coverage, with numerous showers and storms expected later today. Heavy rainfall is likely in any storm, with localized flash flooding possible in urban and flood prone areas. 2) Additional chances for showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. 3) Drier weather returns to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1145 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers increase in coverage, with numerous showers and storms expected later today. Heavy rainfall is likely in any storm, with localized flash flooding possible in urban and flood prone areas. Latest analysis indicates the sfc front now North of the CWA, with the winds having shifted to the SW even on the MD eastern shore. It remains mostly cloudy aside from SE VA/ NE NC where the sky is variably cloudy. Most areas have temperatures ranging through the 70s with dew pts around 70F, though readings have risen into the lower 80s over much of SE VA and NE NC, with dew pts in the low- mid 70s. Area 12Z soundings observed PWAT values from ~1.75" to ~1.85", so moisture is markedly increased compared to the past few days. Overall, instability parameters, while much more unstable compared to Saturday- Sunday, are still not impressive, especially across the NW 1/2 of the area where the sky has been mainly overcast with periodic light showers so far. CAPE is higher in the SE, and can see the response with numerous showers now filling in there. These showers are moving so even with decent rainfall rates, amounts have been fairly minimal on average. Over the next few hrs, expect to see somewhat heavier showers and some embedded tstms, mainly across the SE. Heavy rainfall is likely given deeply-saturated profiles seen in model soundings, with PWATs progged to approach 2" for a good portion of central and eastern VA (and NE NC) by late aftn. The consensus from the 12Z HREF and REFS places the corridor of highest QPF across the SE through ~21Z, with that region seeing somewhat less QPF after 21Z, as the highest axis of heavy rain shifts to roughly from the I-85 corridor northeastward into the RIC metro and Northern Neck. While antecedent rainfall conditions are not favorable for widespread flash flooding, some issues could develop in urban and flood prone areas if 1-2" falls in a short period, along with any repeated training of moderate-heavy showers/storms that occurs. There was additional discussion with WPC on upgrading portions of the region to a slight risk for excessive rainfall. However, given the overall flooding threat is mitigated by the dry antecedent conditions (and with little rainfall Sunday), expect the flash flood risk to be confined to these aforementioned locations, and therefore, the marginal risk has been maintained. Highs will average in the mid 70s NW to the low-mid 80s SE. Widespread precip and rain-cooled air likely drops temps back into the lower 70s. Showers likely persist into the evening and early overnight hours, with a continued threat of heavy rainfall. However, the thunderstorm potential will be much lower given dwindling instability. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The frontal boundary remains near the area Tuesday and Wednesday, which will focus additional shower/storm development over the local area. The exact position of the front will dictate where the heaviest rainfall falls and also where storms are favored. Surface- based instability (and storms) are likely along and S of the front, with much lower storm chances to the N. Model guidance is not currently in good agreement on the frontal positioning (particularly on Tuesday) with solutions varying from well N of the area to bisecting our CWA. Given these uncertainties, a chance for showers/storms has been maintained for the entire area, highest for southern VA and the Piedmont and lower from the Northern Neck onto the MD Eastern Shore. Anomalously high PWATs again favor a heavy rainfall threat. A stronger storm or two is also possible, but the severe threat is quite low given meager lapse rates and only modest shear. The front's location also has implications on the temperature forecast. At this point, the warmest temps on Tuesday are favored from southern VA into NC, though the gradient will probably be a bit more than currently indicated in the forecast. Warmer areawide Wednesday with highs well into the mid 80s possible. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier weather returns to end the week. A cold front will move through Wednesday night as a trough digs out of Eastern Canada into the Northeast CONUS. The main impact from this will be an influx of drier air and little to no precip chances. In fact, forecast high temperatures (well into the 80s) are similar or even a bit higher Thursday vs Wednesday. "Cooler" air arrives by Friday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F. There is increased uncertainty by the weekend as another trough digs out of Canada and potentially interacts with an active southern stream. Rain chances could thus return by Saturday and Sunday, particularly for the southern half of our forecast area. High temps generally in the 70s. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Monday... Degraded flight conditions remain in place at ORF, PHF, RIC, and SBY this morning with either low-end MVFR or IFR CIGs and locally reduced VSBY. ECG has recently improved to VFR. Gradual improvement in the CIGs is expected today, but only to MVFR. There is also some possibility IFR persists at SBY through the period. Scattered- numerous showers/tstms are also expected by this afternoon and evening. Brief gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain/VSBY reductions are the main threats from these storms. Winds through the period will generally average S-SW and be less than 10 kt. Further degradation to IFR/LIFR is expected again tonight with continuing shower chances. Outlook: Conditions remain unsettled with off and on showers and storms and sub-VFR conditions continuing into the middle of the week. && .MARINE... As of 830 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island through 10 AM. - Sub-SCA SSW winds prevail today, with a weak cold front leading to light and variable winds Tuesday, then sub-SCA SW winds returning Wednesday. High pressure is centered offshore early this morning with a weak stationary front lingering in vicinity of the lower Ches. Bay and VA Capes. The wind is mainly light and out of the N-NE to the north of the boundary and out of the SSW south of the boundary. Seas have subsided to 3-4ft in the coastal waters, so lingering SCAs for the northern coastal waters will expire at 4AM. Vsby is once again deteriorating across the northern coastal waters, so the Marine Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 10 AM. The front is expected to slowly move north as a warm front today into tonight with the wind becoming SSW 8-12kt. This boundary then settles south Tuesday with the wind remaining light, but shifting to E/NE across the northern tier of the marine area. The front then lifts back to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday with light SW flow developing. Seas in the coastal waters will subside from 3-4ft initially to 2-3ft by Tuesday and Wednesday, with offshore seas subsiding from 4-5ft to 3-4ft. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be ~1ft with light flow, and 1-2ft near the mouth of the Bay. A cold front moves N-S across the Mid-Atlantic coast late Wednesday night into early Thursday with the wind becoming northerly, but remaining sub-SCA. A stronger cold front potentially crosses the coast next weekend with a N/NE wind developing behind the boundary, which would also result in elevated seas. SCA conditions are possible in the wake of this front. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. && DISCUSSION...LKB/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 425 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097-509>525- 528>531-260830- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland- Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland- Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City- New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry- James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth- 425 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and storms are likely to produce heavy rainfall today. While the ongoing drought will mitigate most flooding concerns, localized flash flashing is possible in urban and flood prone locations. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ102-VAZ098>100-260830- Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton- 425 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. Showers and storms are likely to produce heavy rainfall today. While the ongoing drought will mitigate most flooding concerns, localized flash flashing is possible in urban and flood prone locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>024-260830- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester- 425 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ025-260830- Maryland Beaches- 425 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
VAZ076-085-519>522-251845-
Western King and Queen VA-Middlesex VA-Richmond VA-Western Essex VA-
Eastern Essex VA-Eastern King and Queen VA-
156 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX...CENTRAL
KING AND QUEEN...SOUTH CENTRAL RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stevensville, or near King And Queen Court House, moving east at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rain. Additionally, this
storm has been exhibiting weak rotation.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Center Cross around 205 PM EDT.
Sharps around 225 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Laneview, Howertons,
Wellford, Tidewater, Crouch, Henley Fork, Upright, Bowlers Wharf,
Bruington, and Ino.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3793 7664 3779 7665 3778 7667 3776 7665
3772 7665 3771 7700 3785 7701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 256DEG 16KT 3777 7691
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MillerThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:05 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A cocorahs report was received indicating that 1.65 inches of rain had fallen with heavy rain continuing. They mentioned that streets and ditches were flooding with rain water flowing off hard surfaces and flooding between houses and drains.
VDOT reported that Route 630 in Crewe, in the vicinity of Rocky Ford Road, was closed due to standing water.
A video was shared showing flooded roads along Route 1 in the Bellwood area just north of I-288 with water estimated to be six to ten inches deep. Additionally, at least three cars were stranded.
Flooding was reported near the intersection of Maury Street and Commerce Road via Waze.
Flooding was reported just east of the intersection of Patrick Henry Highway and Meherrin Road via Waze.
Flooding was reported along I-95 via Waze.
The 911 call center reported flooding on Love Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1342536, 1342530, 1342531, 1342532, 1342533, 1342534, 1342535.