Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, May 25 to 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The warming trend continues with Tuesday expected to be the
  hottest day of the work week. Highs will be in the 80s with a
  few values near 90.

- There is a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for severe
  storms this afternoon and evening over a portion of the
  Minnesota Arrowhead. Hail up to half-dollar size (1.25 inch)
  and wind gusts to 65 mph are the main threats from severe
  storms.

- Off and on chances for showers and storms persist through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Today and tonight...
Satellite imagery is beginning to show cumulus development in
the Arrowhead, within an area of instability that is beginning
to overcome the CIN that is in place, mainly in the Arrowhead.
Bulk shear is marginal at best right now, but stronger winds
moving in aloft over the next few hours should cause the shear
to increase as well. A cold front moving in from the northwest
which is about to enter the northwest corner of the CWA should
help initiate convection, as it has already done in Ontario. The
front will also bring stronger surface winds and will come
along with the stronger upper level winds to increase shear. A
few of the storms triggered by this front could become severe,
with large hail and damaging winds. The storms will track in an
easterly direction, gradually weakening as they move across Lake
Superior and northwest Wisconsin before dissipating. Meanwhile,
deep atmospheric mixing will drive relative humidity values
down around 25 percent in the Brainerd Lakes region north to
Koochiching count, creating near-critical fire weather
conditions through the early evening. The dry RH value extend
east along the Borderlands, but with weaker winds there,
concerns are lower. Heat has been running warmer than forecast
along our northern border, but with convection initiating and
creating cloud cover, that should cool back off soon. Behind the
cold front, winds turn northwest and temperatures cool off for
overnight.

Tuesday...Today's cold front will sag south and stall, draping
west to east across the southern half of the area. We are
expecting the hottest temperatures of the week along and south
of that front, with forecast highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s for most inland locations. A Heat Advisory may be needed for
parts of the area. As is typical, onshore flow along the North
Shore will keep temperatures in the 70s there. North of the
front, very dry air will also build into the Borderlands, where
afternoon relative humidity values will drop between 20 and 30
percent, resulting in near-critical fire weather concerns.
Strong daytime heating will build moderate instability along and
south of the front, and the front itself will serve as a
trigger for another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. These storms will have only weak shear and
moderate instability, so we may be looking at a few marginally
severe storms, mainly for parts of northwest Wisconsin south of
the front.

Wednesday...the surface boundary sags still farther south as
Canadian high pressure pushes south toward the Great Lakes.
Winds for all of the area will turn east to northeast, and with
a slightly tighter pressure gradient, surface winds will
increase over western Lake Superior, with gusts up to 25 mph.
This will cause temperatures to cool significantly, with 60s and
lower 70s near the lake, while farther inland areas remain hot
in the 80s, though not as warm as Tuesday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday afternoon in the
general vicinity of the boundary to our south.

Late this week through next weekend...The surface high pressure
builds down over the forecast area beginning Thursday along
with ridging aloft should keep the weather dry and mostly sunny.
This pattern continues through Friday and next weekend.
Generally east to southeast winds will maintain the cool lake
breeze advantage, keeping lake-adjacent highs in the 60s and 70s
while inland locations climb back into the mid 70s to mid 80s
which is near to above normal values. This is just the general
trend though, and there are indications we may get some
diurnally driven or weak shortwaves to kick off some chances for
showers and storms, perhaps Friday or Saturday. The ensembles
have us dry for now, but would not be surprised to add some pops
back in at some point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A cold front moving through the area this evening has triggered
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with brief MVFR
restrictions possible under the stronger cells. These storms
have already moved past KINL, and may approach KHIB and KDLH.
Have included PROB30 groups for these two sites for the next few
hours. KHYR is more likely to be missed, and have only included
VCSH there. South to southwesterly winds around 10 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots as of issuance time to veering to the
northwest behind the cold front and diminishing overnight. Winds
remain 8kts or less through the end of the forecast. Patchy fog
may develop between 08Z and 12Z Tuesday morning, with MVFR
visibility reductions possible for KDLH.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

East to northeast winds today generally in the 5 to 15 knot
range will gradually veer southwest tonight. There is a chance
of thunderstorms that will roll across the lake sometime this
evening. A few storms may become severe northeast of Tofte,
capable of 50 knot winds and half-dollar size hail. Winds veer
southwest and west tonight, then back around to northeasterly at
5 to 10 knots on Tuesday with waves under one foot. Wednesday
and Wednesday night, strengthening northeast winds and building
waves will likely create hazardous conditions, and Small Craft
Advisories may be needed. Winds and waves diminish going into
Thursday, even as winds remain northeast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions to affect the Brainerd
Lakes region north through Koochiching county this afternoon,
driven by minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 25
to 30 percent range and southwest wind gusts reaching 15 to 20
mph. On Tuesday, the dry, near- critical relative humidity
values between 20 and 30 percent will shift into the
Borderlands region, accompanied by east winds of 5 to 10 mph.
Winds turn east to northeast on Wednesday as a prominent inland
lake breeze develops, keeping the lakeside cooler while dry
relative humidity values of 25 to 35 percent remain possible
further inland.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Hot, summer-like temperatures today and Tuesday could produce
high temperatures nearing daily record highs at several climate
sites. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures are
within 3 degrees of their record values. Have added KDLH for
reference.

Record High Temperatures:

Monday, May 25:

      Forecast    Record
KINL: 86 ........ 88 in 1919
KBRD: 88 ........ 90 in 2018
KHIB: 84 ........ 87 in 2010
KDLH: 81 ........ 89 in 2018

Tuesday, May 26:

      Forecast    Record
KINL: 82 ........ 88 in 1919
KBRD: 90 ........ 92 in 2018
KHIB: 86 ........ 88 in 1978
KDLH: 80 ........ 92 in 2018

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
CLIMATE...LE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
450 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-262200-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
450 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a 15-30% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon into evening, mainly along and northeast US-2 in
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. There is a Marginal
Risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe thunderstorms along
and north of a Grand Rapids to Floodwood to Lakewood line. Hail
up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph are
the main risks.

Low relative humidity will lead to near-critical fire weather
conditions in the Brainerd Lakes this afternoon into early
evening.

Localized minor flooding continues over portions of the
Boundary Waters. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for areas
where high flows are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Localized minor flooding continues over portions of the Boundary
Waters. Water levels will continue to decrease through the next
week.

Hot temperatures are expected on Tuesday over most of the
Northland. A Heat Advisory may be needed.

Low relative humidity on Tuesday afternoon into early evening may
lead to near-critical fire weather conditions in the Borderlands.

There will be several additional chances of isolated storms
through Wednesday.

Northeast winds are forecast over western Lake Superior Wednesday
which could lead to rip currents at the beaches of the Twin
Ports.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-262200-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
450 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon
through tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe northeast of
Lakewood, with strong winds up to 50 kt and and hail to half
dollar size possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There are additional small chances of thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon near the Twin Ports.

Northeast winds Wednesday and Wednesday night may pose a risk to
small craft in the Outer Apostle Islands and the southwest arm of
Lake Superior to the Twin Ports.

Gusty northeast winds return Saturday and may pose a risk to
small craft.

BJH

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
316 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033-034-260100-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, Hibbing, Walker, Grand Rapids, Pine River, and Brainerd
316 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE BRAINERD
LAKES AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE...

Dry conditions with relative humidity values between 20 and 30
percent will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions today.
Southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph are
forecast. Together, these conditions could lead to the rapid
spread of fires. Check burning restrictions and fire danger before
burning.

For more information on burning restrictions for Minnesota, see
www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/firerating_restrictions.html.

LE