NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 1:57 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 1:57 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
157 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
- A few more record high temperatures are forecast today across
east central and southeast New Mexico.
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today across
eastern New Mexico due to strong winds and low humidity values
will increase the potential for rapid fire spread if a fire
begins. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return
on Thursday areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
Recent upper air sounding and surface observations indicate that
many locations have already mixed out late this morning, resulting
in some already breezy to gusty westerly winds. Some stronger gusts
of 30 to 40 mph are still forecast for the central highlands, but
overall winds for today did trend down areawide. Winds at 700 mb
only climb up to around 35 kts as a shortwave trough crosses through
the southern Rockies. Therefore, most locations outside of the
central highlands should only see winds between 15 to 25 mph during
the afternoon, before winds become more light and variable over
night. Conditions remain quite dry out east, so there will still be
a few hours of critical fire weather conditions when winds will be
strongest.
As the upper level trough pushes out east, a backdoor cold front
will swing through eastern New Mexico tonight. Winds will begin to
shift north near Clayton shortly after sunset. A fairly tight
pressure gradient should allow for wind speeds between 15 and 20 mph
and gusts up to 30 mph across the eastern plains. As a result,
patchy blowing dust may lower visibility over Quay, Union, and
Harding counties where winds will be strongest. The front looks to
reach Chaves county by the early morning hours on Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures are forecast in the wake of the front for Wednesday,
closer to average for this time of year. Brief ridging aloft should
allow for some quite pleasant conditions across the Land of
Enchantment, with light winds, fair temperatures and partly cloudy
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
Another upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest will dig south
into the Four Corners region by the end of the work week, bringing
another round of gusty winds and elevated to critical fire weather
conditions. As a 90 kt upper level jet rounds the base of the
trough, southwest flow aloft will increase across the Desert
Southwest ahead of the system. A recent trend that guidance has
seemed to have caught on to is showing a slower moving system as the
wave crosses the southern Rockies. This has resulted in some weaker
wind speeds across the state for Thursday afternoon, since the
strongest 700 mb winds of 45 to 55 kts don't seem to arrive until
Thursday night or early Friday morning once the atmosphere has
already decoupled and mixing is limited. Still, bumped up winds into
the 15 to 25 kt range areawide, with some stronger winds over the
high terrain. Guidance has been hinting at a stronger lee-side
surface low developing over eastern Colorado during the afternoon
(996-991 mb), which gives increasing confidence for stronger winds
along the northeast plains and highlands. Winds look to remain below
Wind Advisory criteria at the moment, but gusts up to 45 mph will
still be able to blow around loose objects and create patchy blowing
dust. Laastly, ther is slightly lower confidence for fire
conditions in east- central and southeast parts of the state where
there is a low chance (15%) of a shower or two during the
afternoon, depending on how far west the dryline will set up.
The main trough axis and Pacific front looks to swing through Friday
morning. Some 50 to 55 kt 700 mb winds will bring gusty conditions
for the high peaks along the central mountain chain. Some of this
momentum will mix down to lower elevations in eastern New Mexico
during the afternoon. With drier conditions and gusty winds,
critical fire weather conditions are expected once again across the
eastern plains. High temperatures will actually cool to below
average in western New Mexico, climbing only into the low 50s.
Central and western areas will remain near or slightly above normal
for this time of year.
As this system exits off to the northeast, remaining shortwave
energy will dig south across the Mojave Desert and form a cutoff
low near Baja California during the weekend. Meanwhile, a backdoor
front will push across eastern New Mexico on Friday night and
Saturday morning, cooling high temperatures into the upper 50s and
low 60s. Overall, conditions look to remain mostly dry and with
light winds through the weekend. Chances of precipitation return
early next week as the Baja low begins to make its way east with
some Pacific moisture. Timing and storm path are still quite
uncertain, but there is increasing confidence that at least some
parts of New Mexico will receive wetting rain in the Monday through
Wednesday period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
Prevailing VFR conditions through the period. Recent upper air and
surface observations indicate that many locations have already
mixed out, with KSAF already gusting near 20kts. Breezy westerly
winds expected at most sites through the afternoon, before
becoming more light and variable after sunset. However, a
backdoor cold front will swing through eastern New Mexico
overnight, shifting winds north and bringing breezy winds of 10 to
15 kts for KCAO, KTCC, and KROW. Some localized gusts (up to 30
kts) may be observed in east-central New Mexico with this frontal
passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026
Decreasing confidence for critical fire weather conditions for this
afternoon in particular, but still quite elevated to near-critical
for large portions of eastern New Mexico. Conditions are dry, but
winds just haven't beens as strong and widespread as previously
thought. Yet, west winds with gusts up to 35 mph have already
been observed in a few spots, with RH falling to between 7 and 15
percent. A backdoor cold front will shift winds around to the
north and northeast across eastern NM, with gusts between 20 to
30 mph for a few hours. Much lighter winds on Wednesday will allow
for low fire weather concerns. However, strong winds areawide on
Thursday will once again bring about some critical fire weather
condtions across large swaths of northeast New Mexico. Parts of
central and western New Mexico, will remain elevated to near-
critical. ERC values are climbing areawide, but the highest ERCs
exist from the Rio Grande Valley eastward (near 75th percentile).
A fire weather watch has been issued for Thursday afternoon for
the northeast plains, northeast highlands, and central highlands,
where winds will be strongest and minimum humidity values in the
low teens. On Friday, breezy to windy conditions will again plague
eastern NM and elevated to near critical conditions will return
for the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 31 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 21 61 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 28 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 22 64 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 30 62 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 24 67 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 29 66 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 37 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 32 63 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 29 69 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 33 74 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 23 55 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 35 61 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 30 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 29 58 34 58 / 5 0 0 0
Red River....................... 24 49 29 49 / 10 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 18 56 22 57 / 5 0 0 0
Taos............................ 24 62 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 27 63 31 63 / 5 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 29 68 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 34 62 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 32 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 39 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 71 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 33 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 37 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 33 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 37 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 34 71 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 39 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 38 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 40 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 37 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 32 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 30 63 34 65 / 5 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 32 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 33 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 41 71 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 38 65 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 27 61 31 66 / 10 0 0 0
Raton........................... 26 65 26 69 / 10 0 0 0
Springer........................ 27 68 26 71 / 5 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 29 64 32 66 / 5 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 34 65 39 73 / 10 0 0 5
Roy............................. 32 64 36 71 / 10 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 36 73 39 80 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 35 69 38 75 / 5 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 34 71 42 81 / 5 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 38 71 45 80 / 0 0 0 10
Portales........................ 37 73 45 81 / 0 0 0 20
Fort Sumner..................... 35 71 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 42 73 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 39 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 37 74 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125-
126.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-123-125.
&&
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25