Drought in Nebraska, March 3 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog, potentially dense, likely (70-80%+) tonight
  into Tuesday morning.

- Persistent dreary conditions will keep a prolonged period of
  relatively low chances (20-50%) for off and on drizzle or
  light rain through midweek.

- A nice warmup (60s-70s highs) arrives for Thursday ahead of
  the next storm system that will bring chance for showers and
  (perhaps strong?) thunderstorms on Friday.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are expected to
  dominate the first 10 days of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Been a rather dreary day out there thus far, and don't really
see anything to change this over the next 24-36 hours. In fact,
many areas probably won't see sunshine until some point
Wednesday afternoon. Until then, abundant low level moisture
trapped beneath a stout temperature inversion based around 800mb
will keep low clouds and fog in place. Latest model guidance
continues to suggest high probabilities for dense fog late this
evening, and especially overnight into Tuesday morning.
Fortunately, temperatures should remain above freezing for MOST
of the area. The exception could be a narrow swath from around
Lexington to Ord that briefly reaches 31-32F. Thus, not
expecting the fog to cause slickness issues at this time.
Strongly considered a relatively long-lead Dense Fog Advisory,
but opted to hold off as sometimes these so-called "obvious"
setups end up being more in the 1-2 mile range but with very low
100-200ft ceilings. Mixing remains very weak on Tuesday, so even
if visibilities improve for the afternoon, doubt the low clouds
will completely dissipate. As a result of the stubborn clouds, going
highs for Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s may be a few
deg too warm. Could be looking at a repeat scenario of fairly
widespread fog once again Tue eve/night into Wed AM.

Have continued a plethora of drizzle/rain chances in the short
term as a broad upper trough sweeps W to E across the Central
Plains, generally deamplifying as it does so. Off and on bouts
of modest lift, combined with existing low level moisture AND
brief bouts of mid level moisture, will probably be enough to
squeeze out some showers and/or drizzle at just about any time
through Wed AM. With that said, NOT expecting much in the way of
appreciable amounts - likely a tenth of an inch, or less, for
most locations. Perhaps the extreme NW (Ord area) and the far
SE (Hebron area) could see a bit more...but probabilities for
>0.1" of moisture for these areas is still only 20-40%.

By far, the nicest/warmest day of the week continues to look
like it'll be Thursday. Much less cloud cover and moderate
southerly breezes should boost highs well into the 60s, and
likely even some mid 70s in our favored warm SW spots. Enough of
the early week low level moisture looks to stick around to keep
fire weather conditions below critical levels.

The warm-up will come ahead of our next upper level trough on
Friday, which model guidance actually indicates could be fairly
deep. Could see our rain chances increase as early as Thu
eve/night within a zone of strong low level warm air and
moisture advection that could support some elevated convection.
Will also have another chance with the ejection of the main wave
on Friday. The Friday potential will greatly depend on exact
timing and track of pertinent low level features. General
consensus right now is that much of the forecast area could get
"dry-slotted" - with the primary low level convergence/moisture
favoring strong-severe convection just to our E/SE, and colder
"wrap-around" moisture further W/NW from the Panhandle into the
Sandhills. Obviously, a shift in track N or S could change our
forecast quite a bit - so just stay tuned for refinements
throughout the week.

The late week trough looks to lack significant cold air behind
it, so latest model blends and ensembles support a quick
recovery for temperatures next weekend. Saturday may still be a
bit "cool" in the 50s/60s, but expect warmer 60s/70s to return
for Sunday if current trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dense fog with visibilities of 1/2 to 1/4 mile or less will
continue through at least the mid-morning hours (14-15z). There
remains some uncertainty when visibility will improve, as it
could improve an hour earlier or later than currently indicated
in the TAF (16z). By the early afternoon hours, fog will
completely clear out of the area. There is a low chance for
another round of fog late in the TAF period, but this appears to
be too patchy to include in the TAF at this time.

LIFR ceilings will persist through at least the mid morning
hours, and potentially through noon on Tuesday. Eventually,
ceilings will improve to IFR then MVFR during the afternoon
hours. KEAR could approach VFR ceilings being at the edge of
the stratus deck Tuesday afternoon, but overall model guidance
supports KEAR remaining MVFR. Ceilings lower to IFR Tuesday
evening/night, though the exact time remains uncertain. Have
opted to go on the earlier side of model guidance.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1106 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
040515-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1106 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread dense fog, with visibility as low as a quarter mile or
less will continue overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
until noon on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday.

Widespread dense fog with visibility as low as a quarter mile or
less continue through the morning hours on Tuesday. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect until noon on Tuesday.

Thursday night into Friday morning, thunderstorms appear possible
within much of our forecast area. Although details are far from
clear at this time, early indications suggest that at least small
hail could occur with some storms.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings