Tornadoes and Hail in Michigan, March 3 to 6, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
148 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures expected over the next 7 days,
  warmest on Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s.

- Rain chances exist south of US-30 into Wednesday (greatest
  south of US-24) with better chances areawide Wednesday night
  into Thursday.

- Showers and some thunderstorms are expected Friday into
  Saturday, with severe storms likely remaining west of the
  area. Locally heavy rain is possible.

- Hydro concerns look to be fairly limited as the heaviest
  amounts remain south of the area. Some rivers will rise and
  could reach action stage over the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

A frontal boundary will attempt to edge north somewhat across
portions of central Indiana over the next 12 to 24 hours, then begin
to surge further north as a weak disturbance ejects towards the NE,
reaching the area later Wed into Thu with a sfc reflection passing
overhead. Until this wave approaches a tight northern gradient will
continue in multiple rounds of showers and even some thunderstorms
favoring either side of and south of the I-70 corridor in central
IN. As mentioned in the morning update, pops were trimmed southward
somewhat and this trend continues into Wednesday in line with model
guidance. Questions do remain as to if enough weak low level lift
and low level saturation could result in pockets of drizzle once
again until deeper moisture arrives. Also models seem rather
aggressive on clearing cloud out, especially north despite a lack of
strong subsidence or dry air below 850 mb. Have left any drizzle
mention out, but did increase cloud cover. As the wave moves in
Wednesday night into Thursday, rain chances will increase across the
entire area with on the order of 0.25" (NW) to possibly up to 0.75"
(SE) of rainfall occurring. The ground should be quite receptive to
the light to moderate nature of this, with only a limited response
in rivers for this round.

A lull in the rain is expected in the wake of the mid week system as
an elongated trough lingers to our west with a series of
disturbances ejecting from it into the Plains and western Great
Lakes. This will set the stage for the front to finally push north
later Thursday into Friday with much above normal temperatures
arriving as well increasing moisture. Chances for strong to severe
thunderstorms will take shape to our south and west, with the SPC
DY4 severe outlook depicting a 15% severe threat just to our west in
portions of IL and southern WI for Friday afternoon and evening.
While I suspect in coming outlooks NW portions of our area could end
up in a marginal risk, the timing of late Fri evening into the
overnight hours along and ahead of the cold front leads to a lower
risk of severe at this point.

The front will move across the area, but the overall wave will be
quickly dampening as the main energy remains across the SW U.S. Some
weaker disturbances may drop south into the area into early next
week with small rain chances. Temperatures will "cool" back into the
50s and 60s (still well above normal).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

A baroclinic zone with areas of high pressure to the north and waves
of low pressure riding along it will be the weather-maker between
today and the weekend. Surges of warm/moist air northward increase
chances for rain and drizzle, however, low level dryness will cut
into those chances from time to time. Low level moisture in RAP time
sections continues from now until early Wed morning. Am not entirely
convinced drizzle continues given waning lift this afternoon, but
cannot rule it out. This plays a role in MVFR CIGs that appear to
drop into IFR and potentially LIFR overnight. Aviation guidance
seems to moderate CIGs Wednesday morning potentially as WAA
commences, but there is some uncertainty around if those low CIGs
remain or moderate. Rain probably holds off until the
afternoon/evening Wed.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
353 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-042100-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
353 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 /253 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several rounds of rain and an isolated thunderstorm are expected
through Saturday. While much of the rain will be absorbed into the
ground, rivers may respond as soils become saturated by this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-042100-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
353 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1013 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

INZ017-018-024>027-OHZ015-016-024-025-031700-
Whitley-Allen IN-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley,
Fort Wayne, New Haven, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington,
Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Paulding, Antwerp,
Payne, Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora,
Van Wert, Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
1013 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...Patchy freezing drizzle...

Areas of drizzle were occuring in portions of northeastern Indiana
into northwestern Ohio. While temperatures are above freezing in
most areas, some locations remain near or just below freezing
resulting in the potential for some brief freezing drizzle. The
very limited icing is most likely to impact elevated surfaces like
windshields, but could cause some slick spots on bridges and
overpasses. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing by
12 PM EST, ending the threat.