Drought in Oklahoma, March 3 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A brief period of elevated fire weather (far western Oklahoma)
  and potential for a few severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into
  Tuesday night.

- A continued risk for severe weather on Wednesday-Saturday across
  portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

More impactful weather returns to the area today, with potential
for a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions
(northwestern Oklahoma) and a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

In the interim, we are monitoring potential for fog development
across portions of western and northern Oklahoma, generally after
3 AM. While this may feature localized visibilities as low as
1/4-mile, a modest southeasterly surface wind/turbulent low-level
mixing and continued scattered cirrus increase uncertainty in the
spatiotemporal coverage of this risk. Still, a short-fuse/targeted
Dense Fog Advisory cannot be ruled out this morning and any fog
should dissipate prior to 9 AM.

An elongated Four Corners shortwave trough will meander eastward
through the day, while a surface front sharpens and pushes southward
across the forecast area. Like this past Sunday, there is a
strong possibility that the front progresses a decent bit faster
than currently captured in model guidance, especially in noting
low to mid-30s temperatures and developing stratus across
southwestern Kansas. Accordingly, a much cooler day is now
expected across portions of northwestern Oklahoma, with a
possibility that temperatures do not warm out of the 50s across
Harper/Ellis/Woodward Counties. A notable low-level thermal ridge
and weak compressional warming near the frontal interface look to
still offer up a very warm day generally south/east of the
I-44/I-35 corridors, with potential for near-90 degree
temperatures across western-north Texas.

A short window of opportunity for elevated fire weather conditions
will exist across portions of Ellis, Roger Mills and Beckham
Counties early this afternoon (~12-4 PM), as a wedge of much lower
dewpoints/humidity overlap with breezy southwesterly winds. The
progressive nature of the front should limit the duration of this
threat, though if a wildland fire does become established, a sharp
southwest-to-north/northwest wind shift will need to be closely
monitored.

While much of the day will be dry across the region, at least widely
scattered (high-based) showers and thunderstorms are possible
across western into central Oklahoma during the mid-evening.
While we do not expect much in the way of either rainfall
accumulation or storm impacts with this activity, locally gusty
winds cannot be ruled out given a well-mixed boundary layer
beneath a high cloud base. A better chance for showers and
storms, including some risk for severe weather, will arrive during
the nighttime hours (see SHORT TERM discussion below for more
details).

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

TUESDAY NIGHT: An increasingly strong isentropic/warm air advection
regime is anticipated to develop into the initial hours of Wednesday
morning across the area. This is expected to yield increasing
coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across
the northern one-half of Oklahoma. While most of this activity will
occur behind the surface boundary, a few severe/hail-producing
thunderstorms will be possible owing to an overlap of strong deep-
layer wind fields and modest elevated instability (Ensemble mean
~1000 J/kg MUCAPE). The risk for severe weather will focus mainly
north of Interstate 40 through the overnight.

WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Chances for scattered rain and storms,
along with a localized severe weather risk, will continue on
Wednesday (primarily near and east of Interstate 44). Current
projections have the surface front slowing/stalling across the far
southeast extent of the forecast area into Wednesday afternoon.
As a modestly strong isentropic regime continues throughout the
day, we are likely to see at least limited coverage of rain and
thunder from south-central into east-central Oklahoma.

While a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms will remain possible east
of the Interstate 44 corridor during the afternoon and evening, the
dominant hazard is likely to be hail provided primarily
anafrontal convection, and with a modest plume of
instability/sufficient wind shear remaining in place.

While the risk for rain/storms/severe weather looks spatially
confined on Wednesday, most folks will experience another cool and
cloudy day behind the front, with potential for daytime high temperatures
in the upper-40s in spots. The gridded forecast was adjusted down
several degrees compared to previous updates.

As the surface front begins to "wash out" and lift northward ahead
of our next weather system, coverage of showers and thunderstorms
may accordingly spread further north into central Oklahoma during
the predawn hours on Thursday. A few (brief) hail-producing
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out prior to daybreak in areas
south of I-40/east of I-35.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: A period with more concentrated severe
weather risk arrives late in the day on Thursday. After scattered
morning showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exit into
eastern Oklahoma, much of the remainder of your Thursday should be
mostly dry with warm (70s) temperatures.

A potent upper storm system will begin to emerge across the
Intermountain West throughout the day into night. Our previous
surface front will be making its northward return throughout the
day, as significant lee cyclogenesis occurs to our west/north.

There is near ubiquitous signal for a leading upper impulse to
intercept an increasingly unstable airmass across the Texas
Panhandle/Rolling Plains into far western Oklahoma towards sunset.
The parameterized mesoscale environment would strongly support
organized/supercell storm modes, with an attendant risk for
damaging winds and large hail as activity spreads into western
Oklahoma and perhaps western-north Texas on Thursday night.
Tornadic concern cannot be discounted as well with this activity,
as potential exists for moisture/theta-e flux to counteract
nocturnal stabilization (at least for a time shortly after
sunset). This will be a period of severe weather to keep close
tabs on for interests in the western portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

FRIDAY: As the axis of the aforementioned upper trough continues to
slowly approach the area, chances for thunderstorms and severe
weather will continue on Friday, mainly from the late afternoon
through night. An extensive dryline, stretching from the Central
Plains southward into central Texas will slowly mix eastward into
west-central Oklahoma through the day as a primary upper impulse
lifts across the central Rockies.

While at least scattered convective coverage is currently forecast
to emanate off the dryline, recent progs of the upper systems
progression (yielding neutral or slightly rising height
tendency), and potential for a stronger-than-modeled elevated
mixed layer, raise uncertainty regarding just how many storms we
will see on Friday. Regardless, the expected environment would
appear capable of organized storms/supercells posing a risk for
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Perhaps the most unfortunate trend in the forecast is the run-over-
run decrease in rainfall totals with each round of precipitation
leading up to and on Friday. There is now a real chance that many
locations along and west of the I-44 corridor miss out on
significant (>0.75-1") rainfall accumulations.

SATURDAY & NEXT WEEK: A more chaotic upper pattern introduces a
significant amount of uncertainty once we move into the upcoming
weekend and beyond. At least some potential for lingering showers
and thunderstorms remains on Saturday across the Red River Valley.
Pending details on frontal position/quality of the associated
warm sector, a few severe thunderstorms may also be possible here
during the afternoon and evening.

Our current gridded forecast and ensemble model guidance supports
the idea of a mainly dry and warmer period on Sunday into next
week, with potential for another dynamic upper system towards the
midweek period.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Areas of fog and stratus have developed across northern Oklahoma.
Some stratus is also advecting northward into southeast Oklahoma
this morning. Thus, expect a potential for MVFR ceilings through
about mid-morning and LIFR ceilings and visibility at WWR with
areas of fog across northwest Oklahoma. VFR conditions should
return by mid- morning to all sites.

Breezy southwest winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The
front will enter northwest Oklahoma by mid-morning and push
southward through the evening. A few afternoon showers and storms
are possible across southwest Oklahoma into central Oklahoma this
afternoon ahead of the front, but confidence is low on this
development at this time. Chances are greater for strong to severe
elevated storms to develop after midnight tonight across northern
into central Oklahoma. These storms will be capable of large hail
and damaging wind gusts. In addition to the storms, low clouds
will fill in southward behind the frontal boundary overnight,
which will bring ceilings as low as IFR at most sites by early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  50  56  50 /  20  40  50  50
Hobart OK         82  47  62  47 /  20  30  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  87  58  63  55 /  20  30  50  70
Gage OK           64  40  64  41 /   0  60  30  10
Ponca City OK     73  47  58  44 /  20  60  60  30
Durant OK         78  64  72  59 /   0  30  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23