Drought in Texas, March 3 to 31, 2026

Name: Drought in Texas, March 3 to 31, 2026
Start: 2026-03-03T00:00
End: 2026-03-31T23:59
Location: Texas

March 3 to 31, 2026 · NWS BRO · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

Prolonged lack of rainfall, top five to ten warmest conditions, frequent low humidity, and occasionally gusty winds on both sides of dry fronts allowed Extreme Drought (D3) to worsen to Exceptional Drought (D4) across most of the Brush Country and parts of the Rio Grande Plains (Zapata) by mid March 2026.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 10:28 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 1027 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Key Messages
Hot and mainly dry week is here.
Weekend brings opportunity for rain.
Wind + cured fuels = enhanced wildfire potential.
Adverse marine conditions develop and persist.
Continuous rip current threat.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 10:28 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1028 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Key Messages

 - Hot and mainly dry week is here.

 - Weekend brings opportunity for rain.

 - Wind + cured fuels = enhanced wildfire potential.

 - Adverse marine conditions develop and persist.

 - Continuous rip current threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No significant changes to the current forecast philosophy.
Generally dry weather with well above normal daytime highs and
overnight lows will dominate through a majority of the period.
This will be due to 500 mb high pressure that will gradually shift
from west to east across Mexico and the Gulf of America, but will
be in control throughout the shift over Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. Some very isolated showers over the extreme
northern fringe of the northern ranchlands and the lower Texas
coastal waters cannot be entirely ruled out.

However, a possible change in the weather pattern exists for the
weekend. Closed 500 mb low pressure diving south into the Baja
Peninsula, and eventually east across the Lone Star State, may
bring isolated to scattered convection for Saturday and Sunday
across the BRO CWFA.

Prior to the precipitation potential, a breezy to windy onshore
flow will occur. Given the anticipated strength of the winds, and
abundant cure fuels from prolonged drought conditions and a
couple of episodes of freezing temperatures earlier this year, the
need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (or several) cannot be
entirely ruled out, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday
time frame.

Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will likely
create a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents at the local
beaches daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

It continues to be anticipated that a steadily enhanced pressure
gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce unsettled
marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy to strong
winds are likely, with moderate to rough seas expected. Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are
likely to be needed daily, especially for the Laguna Madre and
nearshore Gulf of America waters, beginning on Tuesday and
persisting through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             67  86  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               63  89  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 67  92  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         63  94  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  78  71  78 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     65  85  68  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Brooks

When: March 3, 12:00 AM CST to March 23, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Brooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.032, -98.219 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Exceptional (D4) Drought would expand to cover more than 75% of Brooks County on March 3rd, with only the eastern quarter remaining at Extreme (D3). By the 17th, D4 would cover all but the extreme eastern sliver (less than 10%) of the county. Cattle ranchers continued to cull herds due to the lack of sufficient grazing land, which became dusty in some spots. Water hauling was required to maintain the herds that remained. Unknown was the impact of the drought on any calving.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When: March 3, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Exceptional (D4) Drought would expand to cover all of Jim Hogg County on March 3rd and persist through the end of the month. Cattle ranchers continued to cull herds due to the lack of sufficient grazing land, which became dusty in many spots. Water hauling was required to maintain the herds that remained. Unknown was the impact of the drought on any calving.

Drought, Starr

When: March 3, 12:00 AM CST to March 9, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Starr forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.562, -98.738 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought covered all of Starr County on the 3rd, but continued very dry, warm to hot, and somewhat low humidity conditions allowed a sliver of Exceptional (D4) to nudge into a sliver of extreme northern portions of the county.

Drought, Zapata

When: March 3, 12:00 AM CST to March 16, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Zapata forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.001, -99.169 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Exceptional Drought (D4) expanded west from Jim Hogg County on March 3, covering the eastern fifth of Zapata County. Extreme (D3) Drought persisted across central Zapata, with a small area of Severe (D2) Drought from San Ygnacio through the Webb County line in northwest Zapata also persisting. These conditions would persist through March 16.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, March 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327495, 1327496, 1327500, 1327505.