NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 2, 5:37 AM CST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 5:37 AM CST, 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A system arriving this morning will bring snow, sleet, and
freezing rain through early Friday morning. Expect moderate to
potentially major impacts, including hazardous travel, power
outages, and tree damage.
- Northeast to east gales up to 40 knots are expected this
afternoon into this evening over most of Lake Superior.
- A second system moves through the area Friday night and
Saturday, bringing another round of mixed precipitation.
Similar impacts are possible.
- More gales are possible over Lake Superior Friday night into
Saturday morning, and again Saturday night into Sunday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Radar and satellite imagery show a low pressure lifting through the
Central Plains this morning. While dry air at around the 850mb level
(thanks to a high over northern Quebec) is evaporating precipitation
before it gets to the sfc this morning in association with the low,
by around sunrise this morning the dry air will be overcome and a
wintry mix of snow and sleet will begin to enter into the region
from the south. While some of the guidance is still hesitant on the
arrival of the precipitation today, waiting in some portions of the
U.P. until the early afternoon hours for the precipitation to begin
(mainly in the far east from Luce County eastwards and the
Keweenaw), some of the CAMs have seemed to ever-so-slightly sped up
things, with precipitation coming in around 12 to 13z across most of
the area (an hour or two earlier near Wisconsin though). Therefore
updated the start time of the Winter Storm Warning for Baraga and
Marquette to 8 AM EST while pushing back the start time for the
Warning over Ontonagon, Houghton, and Keweenaw counties to 10 AM EST
this morning. With frontogenetic and isentropic forcing being quite
robust as the warm front of the incoming low arrives, expect the
precipitation to become moderate to heavy rather quickly; with PWATs
sneaking up to around 1" by the late morning/early afternoon hours,
several spots in the interior west and north central could see up to
an inch of sleet occur as the robust warm nose fights the dynamic
cooling occurring within the atmospheric column. Keeping this fight
between the warm air advection from the Gulf and the dynamic cooling
from precipitation melting, there may be some times where we see
freezing rain change back over to heavy sleet and sleet to heavy
snowfall this morning into this afternoon. However, with the warmer
air from the Gulf generally winning out, expect temperatures to rise
progressively throughout the day today. Overall, expect the highs to
get into the 30s across the area today, with the warmest
temperatures expected in the south central and east near Lake
Michigan as the sfc low passes over the northern portion of the
lake. Because of this, we can expect a gradual transition over to
the warmer wintry precipitation types and rain today, save for the
Keweenaw which may just be all (relatively) wet snow. With that in
mind, as well as strong east to northeasterly winds up to 35 to 40
mph blowing throughout today (strongest in the Keweenaw and
potentially Menominee County), we may some power outages as the ice
accumulates on powerlines and trees with the winds amplifying the
stress. In addition, roadways will be slick due to the snow, sleet,
and ice; if you can, avoid travel as it will be much easier to get
into an accident once the precipitation starts today.
The wrap-around precipitation becomes mostly light snow and freezing
rain over the higher elevations of the north central and west this
evening, while the warm nose keeps the rest of the area as mostly
rainfall until the system moves away Friday morning. With some drier
air overhead on Friday, it may be a prudent time to resupply on any
food, etc. you may need as another Colorado low looks to lift
towards the area. While this second low looks to be a near rinse-and-
repeat of what we will experience today, one major difference is
that the occlusion of the cold and warm fronts are expected to occur
earlier. Thus, warmer air is projected to be overhead when the
precipitation begins, decreasing snow and sleet chances and
increasing freezing rain and rainfall chances. With guidance looking
to keep temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday night
across the area (thanks to a sfc high pressure moving through Hudson
Bay), expect most of the area to generally start out as freezing
rain Friday night; the exception may be near Lake Michigan as
temperatures may not quite get to freezing. As the low continues to
approach the Straits on Saturday, expect the Gulf-supplied warm nose
to bring temperatures above freezing across most of the area by the
late morning to early afternoon hours; the exception may be the far
west and Keweenaw where more of the cold air may reside. Overall,
this second event could be the more impactful one as mostly ice is
expected with it; much of the U.P. could see up to a quarter of an
inch or more of ice before thinks start to melt mid to late Saturday
morning. With fairly strong northeast to east winds also expected
Friday night into Saturday morning as well, additional power outages
and downed tree branches are possible, not to mention very slick
roads making travel dangerous until the above freezing temperatures
arrive. In addition, our area may still be recovering from the
winter storm moving through today into tonight; the additional ice
on top of what we will receive today could exacerbate issues,
particularly for the power grid and for tree limb removal.
Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Friday night
into Saturday morning. One thing more worth mentioning: the AI
guidance is suggesting an even further southeastward trend for the
sfc low Saturday; instead of going through the Straits, the AI GEFS
and European suites bring the sfc low through Lower Michigan. Should
this occur, expect slightly cooler sfc temperatures and thus higher
probabilities for snow/sleet and higher ice amounts across the area
as the cold air at the sfc could hold on a little longer.
As the backdoor cold front of the second low moves through late
Saturday, expect a change back over to snowfall over mainly the
northwest wind snow belts. Light to occasionally moderate lake
enhanced/effect snowfall could be seen over the northwest wind snow
belts Saturday night before high pressure moving in looks to wrap
things up on Sunday. Behind this, some light snowfall looks to move
through the area Sunday night into Monday as temperatures look to
remain below normal. However, behind this Manitoba Mauler shortwave
low, expect temperatures to rise closer to normal for the middle of
next week, with highs potentially flirting with the 50s near the end
of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 736 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Precipitation has been slow to overspread the TAF sites this morning
having to overcome dry air in the lower levels. Impacts should start
showing up by mid-morning, though, as flight conditions slowly drop
to MVFR. At onset, ptype should initially be in the form of snow.
However, it will become a wintry mix of SN, PL, FZRA, and IP through
the course of the day. So, look for further deterioration to IFR by
early afternoon with possible LIFR by late afternoon/evening.
Meanwhile, easterly winds (varying to ESE and ENE at times) will
also strengthen with gusts up to 25 kts at IWD and SAW, and as high
as 35 kts at CMX.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
East winds around 25 knots early this morning continue increasing
from the northeast and east this morning, eventually becoming gales
of 35 to 40 knots across most of the lake by early this afternoon as
a low pressure approaches the region. With the sfc low moving
through northern Lake Michigan this evening, expect the winds to
become more northeasterly this evening before weakening behind the
low to northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots late tonight into Friday.
While winds are looking to weaken close to 20 knots by Friday
afternoon, expect another Colorado low to lift towards the Upper
Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. Because of this, expect the
winds to once again increase from the northeast to east across the
lake, mainly from the far west first starting late in the afternoon
on Friday; as of now, there is a 40% chance that low-end gales will
be seen across the lake late Friday night into Saturday morning.
While we may see the winds slacken a little during the day Saturday
as the center of the low approaches, once the low lifts through the
Straits (or Lower Michigan) Saturday evening, expect winds to back
to the northwest and north, with over a 50% chance for low-end gales
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning (mainly over the eastern
half); some areas of freezing spray may return with the stronger
winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure ridging
returns to the area on Sunday, expect the winds to dial back down to
20 knots or less by the evening hours. That being said, another
shortwave low dropping down over the lake Sunday night into Monday
morning may bring northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots back across the
lake behind it on Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ001>003-084.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for MIZ001>005-009>011-084.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ004-005.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006-
013-014-085.
Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
morning for MIZ006-007-012>014-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT
this evening for MIZ007.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for MIZ009>011.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MIZ012.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 2 AM
EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-263>267.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
for LSZ244-245.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
evening for LSZ246-247.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
for LSZ248.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning from noon today to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAPHazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 1:13 AM CST, 4 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-030715-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 /213 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
A system arriving today will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain
through early Friday morning, as well northeast to easterly winds
up to 35 to 40 mph. Moderate to potentially major impacts are
anticipated, including hazardous travel, power outages, and tree
damage. For more information, see the latest Winter Weather
Message and Area Forecast Discussion.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
A second system moves through the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing another round of mixed precipitation. Similar impacts
are possible. See the latest Winter Weather Message and Area
Forecast Discussion for additional details.
Some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is possible along
the shoreline of Alger and Luce counties on Sunday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall and ice reports to the
National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through
social media.
LSZ162-240>251-263>267-030715-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 /213 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Northeast to east gales as of 35 to 40 knots are expected over
Lake Superior early this afternoon into this evening. See the
latest Marine Discussion, Marine Weather Message, and Open Lake
Forecast for additional details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
There is over a 40% chance for northeast to easterly gales over
Lake Superior on Friday night into Saturday morning. There is
also over a 50% chance for gales over Lake Superior Saturday night
into Sunday morning. See the latest Marine Discussion and Open
Lake Forecast for additional details.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.
LMZ221-248-250-030715-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
313 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
East gales up to 35 knots are expected today. See the latest
Nearshore Zone Forecast and Marine Weather Message for additional
details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
There is up to a 20% chance for east gales up to 34 knots late Friday
night into Saturday morning. See the latest Nearshore Zone
Forecast for additional details.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.
TAP