Strong Wind in Illinois, April 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
655 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the region today.
  40 mph or greater wind gusts are expected, mainly over
  southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere 25 to 35
  mph gusts are expected.

- Temperatures through Friday night will be 15 to 20 degrees
  above normal. A cold frontal passage Saturday will send
  temperatures down to near or below normal levels from Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  throughout the region. A few severe storms will be possible
  over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late this
  afternoon into this evening. The most widespread rainfall will
  be ahead of a cold front late Friday night through Saturday,
  when one to two inches of rain will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A Wind Advisory has been issued for most of southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and portions of
southwest Indiana from 10 AM CDT to 7 PM CDT. Southerly winds
will be sustained 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40-45 mph in the
Advisory area. Elsewhere, gusts will be 25-35 mph. The 00Z GEFS
has a 90+% chance of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in the Advisory
area. The 00Z ECENS has a nearly 90% chance of gusts reaching 40
mph over the entire forecast area. Collaboration with
surrounding forecast offices favored the GEFS footprint, but the
Advisory may need to be expanded eastward later today.

A potent storm system will lift northeast from the central
Plains to the Great Lakes by 06Z tonight. A trailing cold front
could briefly dip southward along the I-64 corridor around 12Z
Friday, but it will quickly lift north of the area by midday
Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
into the early evening mainly over southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. Instability should be sufficient to support
healthy updrafts, while shear will be supportive of supercells
with all modes of severe possible. With much of the shear
focused in the 0-1km layer, tornadoes are the greatest concern.
Farther east instability is very limited and storms should
generally weaken as they lift northeast across southern Illinois
and southwest Indiana through the evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will be focused near the cold front over
the Evansville Tri State Friday morning. The boundary and
convection should lift north of the region by midday. Any severe
threat Friday will likely be near the front to the north of the
area in the afternoon.

High pressure aloft will build over the Quad State Friday
afternoon and evening, before another strong storm system moves
eastward toward the Mississippi Valley Friday night into
Saturday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead
of the associated cold front over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois late Friday night, and then move southeast
across the rest of the Quad State Saturday. 1-2" of rainfall
will be possible with the band.

Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal through Friday
night. Widespread precipitation and an eventual cold frontal
passage will hold temperatures down to 5-10 degrees above normal
on Saturday, then readings will plummet to normal levels or
below from Saturday night through Tuesday night. NBM low
temperatures remain several degrees above the freezing mark.
However, the 00Z GEFS has a 20-40% chance of reaching the
freezing mark early Wednesday over the Evansville Tri State
area. The 00Z ECENS has only a 10% chance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An area of MVFR ceilings will spread north and east across the
sites this morning and should last just a few hours before
lifting/scattering. South winds will crank up quickly this
morning, but may be muted a bit by the low ceilings this
morning. However, sustained winds 15-25kts with gusts 30-35kts
will be common from late this morning through sunset. There will
be a chance of thunderstorms, this afternoon beginning at KCGI
and then pushing eastward into the evening. A few severe storms
are possible. Another round of showers or storms is possible
near a cold front across the northern sites overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093.
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ076-086-087-109>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085.
KY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KYZ001>004.

&&

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 /422 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the region from late
this morning through sunset. South winds gusting in excess of 40
mph are expected.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
The primary focus will be over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois late this afternoon and this evening. A few severe storms
with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible in
those areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for the entire region Friday
and Friday night. A severe storm cannot be completely ruled out to
the northwest of the Ohio River. Large hail and damaging winds
would be the primary concerns.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois late Friday night and then move
southeast across the rest of the Quad State Saturday. 1-2" of
rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois this afternoon and evening.

DRS