Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, April 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
530 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this evening, with all
  hazards possible. An Enhanced Risk for severe is outlooked by
  SPC. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 PM CDT for much of
  southern WI.

- Additional chances for rain and strong thunderstorms Friday
  evening into Saturday.

- Gales will continue over Lake MI into this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 530 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Storms have developed across the Mississippi Valley this evening,
and are already producing tornadoes, golf ball sized hail, and
damaging winds. Strong surface WAA is building into far southern
Wisconsin ahead of these storms, priming our environment for
similar activity within the next hour. Temperatures have already
quickly risen into the mid-60s across the farthest southern line
of Wisconsin counties, with expectation that the warm front with
similar temperatures will continue to push north through Dane,
Dodge, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties within the next two hours.
Low track into Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties on both meso
models and high res guidance indicates potential for storm
development/warm frontal boundary convection all the way through
those regions. With that, have expanded the Tornado Watch to
include all counties south and east of Iowa/Dane/Columbia/Fond du
Lac.

Mixed Layer CAPE values of 750-1000 J/kg expected through the I-94
corridor (supercellular mode possible with any cells that develop
ahead of the main line), with values 500-750 expected north of
the corridor (transition to a QLCS as instability decreases).
Southwesterly bulk shear of 50-60 kt will allow for any surges to
the northeast to become capable of breaking through any remaining
capping inversion north of I-94, and producing damaging winds and
perhaps a few tornadoes. Tornado Watch currently out through 8 PM
CDT, but may need an extension for an hour or two for the
northeasternmost counties in the Watch.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 351 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Tonight through Friday night:

Currently, all of southern WI is parked just north of a warm
front that is expected to surge north through the rest of the
afternoon and early evening. This will happen as a surface low
rapidly tracks from central Iowa to southwest Wisconsin by this
evening. Showery rain and fog should lift north and give way to
warmer temperatures, with some brief clearing over southwest WI
as the warm sector moves in. With daytime solar insolation and
strong warm advection, temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s
should be realized late afternoon into this evening and MLCAPE
is expected to rise to around 1100 J/kg along the WI/IL border.
Looking at radar trends to our west, a scattering of low-topped
supercells and QLCS line segments will be the mode this evening.
Given great low level SRH around 200 m2/s2 and sickle shaped
hodographs in the low levels, tornadoes will be possible with
any well established supercells and QLCS-line segments. Damaging
wind will also be possible where low level instability is
maximized and large hail can't be ruled out with any supercells.

At this time, the highest severe threat appears to be along the
WI/IL border where the best surface-based environment will be
realized. A Tornado Watch has been issued for Lafayette, Green,
Rock, and Walworth Counties until 8pm. Areas north toward I-94
are not out of the woods, as even with a more marginal CAPE
environment, most CAPE will be in the 0-3km layer supporting a
more marginal wind and tor threat. Storms are expected to move
in around 5 and move out over Lake Michigan around 11pm.

Following tonight's excitement a brief surface ridge is expected
to move through Friday, before a surface low approaches for
Friday night into Saturday. Another more marginal round of
strong to severe weather may occur, primarily south and west of
Madison as a line of storms form along an occluded front. Lapse
rates will be a bit better amid 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but
storms will primarily be elevated, leading to a hail threat.
Storms will then move through Friday night, generally weakening
as they head east toward Lake Michigan, and exiting through
dawn on Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 351 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Saturday through Thursday:

The occluded low and front will pass Sat AM with much of the
widespread showers and storms already to the east, but scattered
showers may linger. The broad occluded low will then gradually
deepen as it lifts newd into the nrn Great Lakes later on Sat,
then to wrn Quebec by 12Z Sun. Brisk wnwly winds and cold
advection will prevail Sat afternoon into Sun with high temps
from 45-50F for Sunday. The cool conditions will continue
through Tue as a couple shortwave troughs in nwly flow aloft
reinforce the cool air mass. They will also bring 20 percent
chances for light rain and snow Sun nt-Mon. Large high pressure
will then shift across srn WI on Tue, moving to the Mid Atlantic
States on Wed. Sly winds and warm, moist advection will then
boost temps for Wed, but also bring 20 to 30 percent chances
for rain. A weakening Canadian cold front may then stall over
the region Wed nt-Thu with 40-50 percent chances of rain.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 530 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Afternoon round of showers and storms are lifting to the
northeast and the warm front is gradually lifting northward. May
see an hour or two window in between the departing activity and
redevelopment with improving flight conditions. Otherwise,
expecting the showers and storms to redevelop through the
evening as low pressure lifts northeastward from IA through
southern WI. Will see a broken line of strong to severe
thunderstorms with this activity now through 04z. With any
strong to severe thunderstorm activity can see lower LIFR/IFR
ceiling and visibilities along with heavy rain, damaging winds,
large hail, and even a few tornadoes at times. Severe chances
work southwest to northeast through the evening and reaching the
lakeshore by 04z. Will see this activity wind down as the low
and cold front pushes through, lower ceilings may linger with a
westerly wind shift overnight. Winds then ease and turn more
easterly into Friday.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 351 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Gusty easterly winds over the north end of Lake Michigan and
southerly winds of the southern two thirds are currently ongoing
as a low pressure of 29.4 inches approaches from southern Iowa.
This low will pass over the midsection of the lake tonight,
ending the gales over the northern end of the lake, while
southerly gales will continue south until a cold front sweeps
through.

Winds will then become northwesterly tonight and then light and
variable for a time midday Friday as a weak surface ridge passes
over the lake.

Winds will then become northeasterly Friday night as a weaker
low pressure of 29.8 inches occludes and passes over the
southern end of the lake through early Saturday. Easterly winds
over the northern end of the lake may reach gale force Saturday
morning. Winds then veer southwesterly through Saturday
following the surface low.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 9 PM Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Friday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-032200-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Evening into Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with some severe this
afternoon and evening. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail
are possible. Tornado Watch for much of southern WI until 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Additional chances for strong thunderstorms late Friday into
early Saturday with primarily large hail as the main concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed Tonight.

LMZ643>646-032200-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect into the early evening.

A Small Craft Advisory continues for gusty south winds shifting
west late. High waves expected.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into the evening and a
few may become strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels again Friday
night into Sunday.

Additional storm chances late Friday into early Saturday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-032200-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect through this evening for gusty
easterly winds becoming southerly.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly over the
southern two thirds of the lake.

Patchy dense fog.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Additional storm chances late Friday into early Saturday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

WIZ052-059-060-065-066-070>072-030100-
Sheboygan-Washington-Ozaukee-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Walworth-Racine-
Kenosha-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove,
Oostburg, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg,
Grafton, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls,
Muskego, Milwaukee, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva,
East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...AREAS OF FOG THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

Areas of fog have developed this afternoon, and will linger
through the first half of the evening. Fog could be locally dense
in areas. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra
following distance if commuting through early evening.
Visibilities will improve after 8 PM as winds pick up across the
region.

Quigley