What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 2, 5:57 PM EST, 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall and renewed flooding along area waterways
- Strong to severe storms possible late today into tonight, as well as Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday; all hazards possible, though damaging winds will be the primary concern
- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or freeze conditions possible
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 5:57 PM EST, 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and
storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall
and renewed flooding along area waterways
- Strong to severe storms possible late today into tonight, as well
as Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday; all hazards possible,
though damaging winds will be the primary concern
- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows
in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or
freeze conditions possible
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 557 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Surface mesoanalysis shows an instability axis extending across the
MS river valley, which much lower instability located over central
Indiana, (MLCAPE around 500 j/kg). ACARs soundings from IND and the
18Z sounding from Lincoln, IL show a pronounced inversion centered
around 500 mb, which is substantially limiting mid level lapse rates
to less than 6 deg C/KM. However there are steep lapse rates between
the surface and 3 km. DCAPE values measuring downdraft potential run
between 500-800 j/kg extending along and just east of the Wabash
valley. The threat for severe hail looks extremely minimal given the
weak mid level lapse rates and overall instability. In addition
given cloud bases around 5kft the and meager low level shear, the
threat for any isolated tornado is very low.
Given the organized nature of the convective line in Illinois, cell
mergers and cold pool generation will foster some threat for
damaging wind gusts as the activity moves eastward into central
Indiana. The leading edge of the threat for severe winds will reach
the US 31 corridor around 8 PM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
An active next 24 hours expected for Central Indiana with strong
winds and a few rounds of potentially strong storms.
Soundings from around the region show a mixed boundary layer
resulting in strong winds within the low level jet mixing down to
the surface. The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7PM for
sporadic gusts to 45 mph. Winds remain elevated overnight; however
gusts should drop off after sunset and remain under 30 mph through
Friday.
Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly
within the warm sector of a 1000mb low near Des Moines, IA. The
overall system shifts to the northeast tonight into the Great Lakes
while weakening, taking the best forcing for ascent and wind shear
with it. A trailing surface front stalls out tonight over North
Central Indiana as the entire system pulls away. While this isn't
the best scenario for strong to severe storms, there is still a
marginal threat for severe weather this evening and tonight.
Latest IND ACARs sounding shows a moist boundary layer with dew
points around 60F and CAPE nearing 500 j/kg. CAPE isn't overly
impressive and is expected to wane some going into this evening as
mixing dries out the boundary layer some. Also noting weak mid to
upper level lapse rates which could limit the overall severity and
coverage of storms as they track east into Central Indiana. CAMs
have been consistent in showing plentiful shear to support strong
to severe storms, however the overall profile including instability
and upper level lapse rates are only marginal. And with the best
dynamics and forcing closer to the parent system, confidence is
increase in the best severe threat remaining closer to the IL/IN
border and in NW portions of Central Indiana. 18z ILX special
sounding confirms the marginal environment for severe weather this
afternoon. In fact, the environment over Central Illinois is a
little more supportive for supercells this afternoon with more
instability and higher shear. Latest Hi-res guidance does show storm
initiation within the 19-21z timeframe in South Central Illinois and
near the MO border , however hi-res ensemble probs depict storms
struggling to vertically grow above 30kft. Based on the current
environment and hi-res guidance trends, thinking the best chance at
any severe storm will likely remain in Western Indiana before sunset
with damaging winds being the main threat. But as mentioned above,
the limiting factors to severe weather should prevent the high wind
or tornado threat from being widespread in Indiana. Nonetheless,
best timing for storms to approach the IL/IN border is around 22z-
23z, pushing east/ northeast 00z-02z into Central Indiana. Do think
discrete cells will begin to merge into a mixed mode line with
embedded lower topped supercells and bowing segments. There is a
strong signal that storms fall apart during their eastward
progression as the entire mid latitude system and supportive
dynamics pull away. Lower confidence exists in any severe threat
this evening and tonight east of the I-65 corridor.
In addition to the marginal severe threat, any thunderstorm has the
potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding, especially in
areas that get repeated rounds of storms tonight where 1-2" of rain
could fall locally. Outside of those localized areas, widespread
rainfall amounts through tonight should remain around or below a
half inch.
Later tonight, The cold front won't make it fully into the area
before pushing back northward in response to development and
northeastward movement of another low pressure system tonight into
Friday. This set up keeps the area within the warm sector and
continuing thunderstorm potential into the day on Friday. With the
increase in the LLJ ahead of the front overnight, CAMs has been
consistent in showing additional storms developing in the 04-08z
timeframe within Central Indiana. Weak, yet positive theta-e and
moisture advection right along the front may increase instability
enough to support a few storms overnight. With a marginally unstable
and humid environment and sufficient shear still present for
organized storms, would not be surprised to see a strong to severe
storm or two behind the main line of storms. This secondary round
likely will not be as widespread as the first round, remaining more
isolated to scattered in nature. A marginal damaging wind and hail
threat exist with this second round but not expecting anything
significant.
For Friday, Soundings indicate early day capping eroding eventually
being overcome by diurnal heating, with much better instability in a
modest shear environment supporting potential for strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon into evening as the front remains draped
over North Central Indiana. Overall, Friday should not be a washout
of a day. Expect cloudy, warm, and humid conditions the first half
of the day with storms developing along the front within Central
Indiana during the afternoon. Highs once again will be above average
in the 70s to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level flow pattern
currently exists across the CONUS. Broad troughing is found over the
western US with ridging over the east. Low-level flow has largely
been out of the southwest across the Mississippi and Ohio River
valleys, which has lead to generally warmer-than-average
temperatures over the past week. Additionally, occasionally
shortwaves have been ejecting from the deeper trough over the west.
These features have provided us with periodic chances for showers
and storms as well.
Things change as we head into the long range, however, as the
western trough begins to drift eastward. By late Sunday into early
Monday, the trough axis is modeled to be over the Great Lakes.
Northwesterly flow aloft returns to the Midwest, with colder air
streaming southward. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing
a trend towards cooler temperature through much of next week. Near
to slightly below normal readings are favored, with daily highs in
the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s. Multiple nights next week
have the potential to be near or even below freezing. As such, the
probability of frost and freeze conditions is increasing.
Days 8 - 14: Longer range ensembles hint at a return to the current
pattern, featuring troughing out west with ridging to the east. A
trend towards warmer-than-average temperatures and a more active
storm track is favored around mid-month.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Impacts:
- Line of convection will move through the sites from west to east
through about 04Z
- Gusty winds will continue early, but speeds will gradually diminish
- MVFR ceilings return overnight and will persist into Friday
Discussion:
A line of convection will move east through the sites this evening.
Strong to severe convection is possible. Otherwise, gusts over 40kt
and IFR conditions are possible in any storm.
After the line passes, VFR conditions will persist for a time.
Additional scattered convection will be around, but confidence is
not high enough to include any mention of thunder.
MVFR ceilings will move in overnight and persist into Friday,
potentially until mid-afternoon. Additional showers and some storms
may develop Friday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 2:06 PM EST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-031915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
306 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
Winds will gust as high as 45 to 50 MPH this afternoon across central
Indiana.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible late today into this
evening. All hazards will be possible, though damaging winds will be
the primary threat. Greatest threat for severe weather is along the
IL/IN border, significantly decreasing further east.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will remain possible at times through Saturday. A
threat for severe storms will exist each day through Saturday.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will be possible at times, which may
produce localized flash flooding as well as renewed flooding on area
rivers.
Non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 45 MPH will be possible again on
Saturday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters may be needed at times today, Friday, and Saturday.
&&
More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 2, 5:16 PM EST, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
INZ028-022245-
Warren IN-
616 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren County
through 645 PM EDT...
At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vermilion Regional Airport, or near Danville, moving northeast at 55
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Williamsport, West Lebanon, Pine Village, State Line City, Tab,
Rainsville, and Pence.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4041 8753 4048 8746 4048 8721 4040 8709
4015 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 228DEG 48KT 4024 8760
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
AGMSpecial weather statement, Apr 2, 5:44 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
644 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
INZ028-029-035-022315-
Fountain IN-Warren IN-Tippecanoe IN-
644 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Fountain,
northwestern Tippecanoe and Warren Counties through 715 PM EDT...
At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Williamsport, or 11 miles southwest of Otterbein, moving northeast at
55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Williamsport, Attica, Shadeland, Battle
Ground, West Lebanon, Pine Village, Rainsville, and Purdue
University.
This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 176 and 184.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4056 8686 4049 8679 4015 8747 4025 8747
4043 8740 4048 8732 4048 8709 4056 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 229DEG 50KT 4037 8726
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
AGMSpecial weather statement, Apr 2, 5:54 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
INZ051-060-022330-
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Vigo and northern
Sullivan Counties through 730 PM EDT...
At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Vermilion to near Palestine Illinois.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Sullivan, West Terre Haute, Shelburn, Prairieton,
Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Seelyville, Hymera, Fairbanks, Riley,
Fontanet, Graysville, Pimento, North Terre Haute, Indiana State
University, and Sandford.
This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 1 and 16.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3917 8764 3917 8762 3918 8762 3920 8759
3922 8757 3925 8757 3925 8760 3928 8761
3930 8760 3931 8762 3934 8758 3935 8753
3959 8753 3960 8723 3910 8725 3909 8762
3910 8761 3911 8765 3912 8763 3914 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 240DEG 30KT 3951 8759 3904 8767
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Crosbie