Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, June 25 to 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for
  severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph and
  quarter- sized hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end
  risk of a tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from now until 7 AM Friday. Bands
  of 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts to 7" within these
  heavy bands.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on
  Friday. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind
  gusts up to 60mph.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area
  Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Pulse-type thunderstorms have started to pop up over
southwestern MO this afternoon in a corridor of instability that
lies along and south of Hwy 60. These thunderstorms have had
lightning with them as well as brief heavy rainfall. These
little storms are just the appetizer for our bigger event later
today. An MCS complex has been slowly working its way through
Kansas today. This will continue into our area and bring a round
of severe weather and flooding concerns. The main threat with
this system is flooding and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a low-end chance for a tornado or two to occur with
this system, but it'll depend on if the shear and instability
can line up just right. So far, the shear hasn't been too
impressive (0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25kts) and doesn't start
ramping up until the low-level jet gets going later tonight (0-1
km bulk shear of 25-35 kts) after sunset. However, our
instability is sufficient with 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The
bulk of the system will move through in the next couple of hours
and persist through the evening. Then, a stalled front sets up
over southern MO and allows the storms to train over the same
area as the low-level jet interacts with the frontal boundary.

SPC has already put out a discussion this afternoon with a 60%
chance for a watch at least for our western CWA at some point
this afternoon. WPC has put out a discussion regarding the
rainfall totals incoming with this system. We could see intense
rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5"/hr with widespread rainfall totals of
2-4" with localized amounts up to 7". This will be especially
impactful to SE KS and west-central MO where the Moderate risk
(3/4) for flash flooding will occur today. We want to stress
that this could be an overnight flooding situation as this
activity will continue through the night. A few rivers in the
area are forecast to reach moderate stage by Friday morning as
well. Turn around don't drown, and please do not drive through
flooded roadways especially at night!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weather pattern change is expected heading into the weekend
throughout the beginning of next week. An upper-level ridge is
currently building over the CONUS area associated with a high
pressure system centered over south-central Missouri. This
ridging pattern is going to push 850mb temperatures into the mid
to high 20s C; excessive heat is expected going into early next
week. Heat indicies are forecasted to reach high 90s F to 100 F
with localized areas reaching to the low 100s F within the
area. This will cause for a major risk of heat-related impacts
(3/4) with some areas in central Missouri having extreme (4/4)
heat-related impacts going into the beginning of July. For the
expected heat-related impacts, remember to remain hydrated and
be able to have access to air conditioned indoors.

Heading into next week, the WPC has a likely chance (70-80%) for
above average temperatures for the first week of July (average
temperatures 87-89 F), and into the holiday weekend. Models suggest
consistency with this persistent heat forecast as the upper-
level ridge remains above the area. Dry weather conditions will
pair with this expected heat wave with no precipitation in the
forecast going into next week due to lack of atmospheric
moisture for the beggining of July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Bands of thunderstorms are moving across the region early this
evening and will continue at times through a lot of the TAF
period. There will be breaks between rounds of rain at times but
more showers and storms will develop and move back into the
area at times. Coverage will be greatest this evening into
tonight and may be more scattered in nature on Friday. MVFR to
IFR conditions will occur with the storms, as visibilities drop
in very heavy rainfall. Winds will generally be west to south
outside of the storms but will be gusty at times and could be
more northerly winds outflow from storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Friday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
827 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms tonight. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-
sized hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end risk of a
tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

A Flood Watch is in effect from now until 7 PM Friday. Bands of 2
to 4" with locally higher amounts to 7" within these heavy bands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday.
The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to
60mph.

Warm temperatures return to start next week with highs in the
lower 90s and heat index values in the lower 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southeast Kansas and
southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
718 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Bois d'Arc        37.28N 93.52W
06/25/2026                   Greene             MO   911 Call Center

            Water rescue with vehicle in water on farm
            road 61.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
731 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Bois d'Arc          37.28N 93.50W
06/25/2026                   Greene             MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway UU and Farm Road 94 area has
            water over the road.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
745 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Eudora            37.48N 93.56W
06/25/2026                   Polk               MO   Dept of Highways

            State Highway W is closed due to flooding.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
803 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ097-101-260200-
Cherokee KS-Crawford KS-
803 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Paul, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Girard, Cherokee, Weir, Scammon, Mccune, West Mineral,
Roseland, Beulah, Greenbush, Carona, Skidmore, Brazilton, and
Stippville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 9508 3757 9477 3716 9478 3729 9508
      3738 9507 3739 9509 3748 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 277DEG 19KT 3746 9513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
830 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Flash Flood      Ash Grove               37.32N 93.59W
06/25/2026                   Greene             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Between 6 and 8 inches of flood water
            entered an apartment complex on Exchange
            street in Ash Grove. The parking lot was
            flooded and nearly inaccessible.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
831 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     Hail             4 N Mccune              37.41N 95.02W
06/25/2026  M0.88 Inch       Crawford           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Nickel size hail reported north of McCune.

&&

MB