High Wind in California, May 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
803 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/1232 PM.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to
continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the
afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception.
Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and
across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest
today. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next
several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...16/802 PM.

Mixed bag of temperatures today as coastal/valley areas were a bit
warmer (with more sunshine) while interior sections as well as the
Central Coast were a bit cooler today. Gusty northwesterly winds
continue early this evening with gusts in the 35-55 MPH range
across the mountains and deserts.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant changes to
previous thinking. With the inside slider dropping into the Great
Basin tonight/Sunday, strong northwesterly winds will continue.
Wind gusts of 40-60 MPH will continue across the mountains,
deserts and southwestern Santa Barbara county through Sunday
evening. So, will keep the current slate of HIGH WIND WARNINGS in
effect through the day on Sunday. Along the Central Coast, winds
are slowly diminishing and the WIND ADVISORIES for these area
will likely be allowed to expire at 900 PM. For Sunday night and
Monday, the winds shift to the northeast and focus across Ventura
and LA counties. Based on high resolution models, LAX-DAG pressure
gradient is only forecast to top out around -3.0 mb, but there
will be some decent support. So, there will be some gusty
northeast winds across the mountains and valleys in the usual
Santa Ana wind corridor. At this time, based on ensembles, there
is a 50-70% chance of advisory-level northeast winds across the
mountains, but only a 20-40% chance across the valleys. So, future
shifts will need to watch for the potential for wind advisories
Sunday night and Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, a weak
diurnal flow pattern is expected with winds remaining weak.

Other than the winds, no significant issues are expected through
Tuesday. The marine inversion will rather somewhat deep through
the period, but the areal coverage is expected to decrease and
become more chaotic from day-to-day. Other than any marine layer
stratus, skies should remain mostly clear. As for temperatures,
will expect some slight cooling on Sunday. However for Monday and
Tuesday, the offshore gradients will allow for a nice warming
trend. By Tuesday, most areas will have highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/107 PM.

Wednesday is expected to be warmest day for coast and valleys before
offshore flow weakens, then turns onshore Thursday and increasing
through next weekend. Warmest valley areas should reach the mid
90s while intermediate areas between the beach and the valleys
will be in the low to mid 80s.

From Wednesday into next weekend models are showing weakening
high pressure aloft and gradients gradually turning back to a
standard moderate to strong onshore flow pattern which likely
would bring a return of the marine layer and much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1745Z.

At 1621Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5300 ft with a temperature of 15 C.

For desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF), gusty west winds are expected
to reach 30-40kts. Strongest for KWJF where MVFR VSBYs 3-5SM with
BLDU is possible (30-40% chance) through this afternoon.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of FM groups could
be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of FM groups could
be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 50% chance
that east wind component reaches 7-8kts from 10Z-16Z Sunday.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...16/121 PM.

Dangerous sea conditions will continue through the weekend.
These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels.
Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.

GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the
Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel
this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG
GALES will continue through the weekend. Local gusts may reach
STORM FORCE late this afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds
will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of
lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will
continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot
steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.

For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG
GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds
will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight
Sunday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the
weekend and could linger into Monday afternoon or early evening.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING
remains in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel through late
night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday
afternoon and evening. These winds will be strongest across
western and southern portions of the channel.

For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA
conditions are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning.
Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion.
Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible this evening near
Anacapa Island.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for
      zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday
      for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Thompson/MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox