Hail and Damaging Wind in Iowa, May 16, 2026

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in Iowa, May 16, 2026
Start: 2026-05-16T15:33
End: 2026-05-16T16:24
Location: Iowa

May 16, 2026 · NWS OAX · 8 events in 1 county or zone

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.

During the afternoon and evening hours of May 16, 2026, severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging wind gusts across southwest Iowa. The storms initiated along a frontal boundary draped across the region as a shortwave disturbance pivoted overhead. Earlier in the day, this shortwave had helped develop a surface low near the Colorado/western Nebraska border, which subsequently tracked eastward toward the Mid-Missouri Valley. Ahead of the low, an axis of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE developed near the boundary. This instability, combined with increasing deep-layer shear, created an environment highly supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms.

A strong to severe thunderstorm initially tracked across Montgomery County, producing a combination of damaging winds and large hail. The storm initially dropped quarter-size (1.00 inch) hail near Stanton before an Iowa DOT mesonet station 3 miles north of Villisca measured a peak wind gust of 64 mph. As the storm moved over and around Red Oak, reported hail sizes increased. Widespread quarter-size hail within the city quickly gave way to golf ball-size (1.75 inches) hail southwest of town reported by emergency management, 2.00-inch hail measured by a storm chaser to the east-southeast, and baseball-size (2.75 inches) hail reported via mPING just 3 miles south of Red Oak.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 12:38 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Strong to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon (30%) and evening hours, with more storms possible in the late evening and overnight (70-90%).
Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all hazards possible.
Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 50s and 60s, warming back up toward the end of the week.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 12:38 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
138 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon
  (30%) and evening hours, with more storms possible in the late
  evening and overnight (70-90%).

- Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all
  hazards possible.

- Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 50s
  and 60s, warming back up toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Satellite gives a good idea of where the upper-level warm front
is located this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies along and
north of the boundary from Lincoln to Plattsmouth. Skies to the
south are mostly clear. We have the surface front to the south,
closer to the Kansas-Nebraska state line. We're going to be
watching this surface front push north into southeast Nebraska
over the next few hours, with an isolated storm or two possibly
developing later this afternoon. The upper-level shortwave
pushes into north-central Kansas around 7pm this evening,
kicking off storms in northeastern Kansas. A line of these
storms will move north into southeast Nebraska around 8-9pm
getting into Lincoln/Omaha around 10-11pm. This line of storms
will lift into northeast Nebraska after midnight. The second
round of storms develop near the Nebraska Panhandle this evening
and develop into a bowing line that will push into our area
around 1-2AM. Significant wind threat with this line of storms,
with potential for 70+ mph winds.

Sunday will start off with lingering cooler and cloudy
conditions from the overnight storms. It's going to take some
time for our environment to recover, with clouds maybe not
burning off until early afternoon. The developing surface low
has trended farther north, deepening which will strengthen the
surface pressure gradient across our area. Because of this
we'll see stronger winds develop out of the south, with gusts 35
to 45 mph expected starting mid-morning through the afternoon.
The first storms will develop either over northeast Nebraska or
southeast South Dakota around 6pm. CAPE values of around 3500
J/kg pooling along the warm front as well as 0-6km bulk shear
values of 35-40 kt should support discrete supercells
initially. Later in the evening closer to 9pm the low-level jet
intensifies, bringing stronger winds at 850mb into southeast
Nebraska. This should light up storms all along the cold front
from around Red Cloud northeast through Columbus and Thurston.
500-mb winds show steering flow pushing these storms east off
the frontal boundary. the best low-level shear will be over
northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and northwest
Iowa Sunday evening, lending to the greatest potential for
embedded supercells and strong tornadoes in this area. However,
there will still be enough shear for a few supercells farther
south along the line of storms after 9pm for a tornado or two to
develop as far south as I-80. This line of strong to severe
storms clears east of our area by around 3-4am.

While the storms moved off to the east, the front does not
follow, staying put across our area into Monday acting as a
focus for more strong-to-severe storms on Monday. There are
differences in the CAMs on where exactly the front will be
Monday morning, with the HRRR keeping it just north of the
Omaha-Lincoln metros. Other hi-res models have it farther south,
closer to Nebraska City. It's location will greatly influence
the areas with severe weather potential on Monday. Storms are
expected to develop initially over north-central Kansas
potentially during the early afternoon, moving into southeast
Nebraska mid-afternoon into the early evening. All modes of
severe weather will again be possible, with tornadoes, large
hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. These storms should
clear out of our area by 10-11pm.

Tuesday and beyond we finally get a break! The front shifts
south pushing the severe threat south and east of our area and
bringing in a cooler Canadian air mass for mid-week next week.
Tuesday will be much cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s
across our area, with highs moderating back up to solidly in the
mid 60s on Wednesday. Our next chances for rain hold off until
later next week with temperatures warming back up toward next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon with winds shifting to east or
southeasterly at the terminals. We could see an isolated storm
develop, with a 20% chance impacting KOMA or KLNK around 22-00Z.
Better chances for storms (70-80%) arrive closer to 04Z at KLNK
and KOMA with storms initially coming up from the south. Some of
these could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes possible. A second line of storms will be moving in
from the west late tonight, getting to KOFK around 07Z, KLNK
around 0730Z, and KOMA closer to 08Z. This one could have a
pretty strong surge of westerly winds, of 50kt+. Behind these
storms, we see low stratus develop over northeast Nebraska with
cigs around 1500-2000ft impacting KOFK into Sunday morning.
Winds will shift back to the southeast once the storms clear,
with skies gradually clearing across the area by late morning
or early afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 12:40 PM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
140 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-171845-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
140 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across the area/move into
the area after 4 PM (30% chance), with a better chance for storms
after 9 PM (70-90%). Strong winds (75+ mph) large hail, and tornadoes
will be possible, with tornadoes more of a threat through the
afternoon and evening, and wind a greater threat overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Repeated rounds of showers and storms are forecast Sunday and
Monday -- primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Large
hail and damaging winds, and tornadoes (some possibly strong) are
all possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but reports of
severe weather are appreciated.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 16, 10:26 AM CST, 5 hours 7 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1126 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Hail             3 ENE Dorchester        40.67N 97.06W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Saline             NE   Public

            Delayed social media report and photo of
            quarter sized hail stones. Time estimated
            based on radar.

&&

Local storm report, May 16, 11:55 AM CST, 3 hours 38 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1255 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Emerson                 41.02N 95.40W
05/15/2026                   Mills              IA   Public

            Social media report/photo of a large tree
            limb down in town. Time estimated based on
            radar.

&&

Local storm report, May 16, 11:58 AM CST, 3 hours 35 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1258 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Hail             Herman                  41.67N 96.22W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Washington         NE   Public

            Social media report of nickel to quarter
            sized hail.

&&

Local storm report, May 16, 1:17 PM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
217 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Kennard             41.47N 96.14W
05/15/2026                   Washington         NE   Public

            Delayed social media reports of 1-2 inch
            diameter branches downed. Also estimated
            wind gusts of around 55mph.

&&

Local storm report, May 16, 1:18 PM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Hail             Herman                  41.67N 96.22W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Washington         NE   Public

            Social media report of nickel to quarter
            sized hail.

1010 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Kennard                 41.47N 96.20W
05/15/2026                   Washington         NE   Public

            Delayed social media report of a broken
            window to an RV. Time estimated based on
            radar.

1038 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Kennard             41.47N 96.14W
05/15/2026                   Washington         NE   Public

            Delayed social media reports of 1-2 inch
            diameter branches downed. Also estimated
            wind gusts of around 55mph.

1130 PM     Rain             5 W Fort Calhoun        41.44N 96.11W
05/15/2026  M0.29 Inch       Washington         NE   Public

0828 PM     Hail             5 W Milford             40.77N 97.15W
05/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Seward             NE   Trained Spotter

            Hailstone compared to quarter.

0850 PM     Hail             3 ENE Dorchester        40.67N 97.06W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Saline             NE   Public

            Delayed social media report and photo of
            quarter sized hail stones. Time estimated
            based on radar.

0920 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Palmyra             40.71N 96.44W
05/15/2026                   Otoe               NE   Public

            Social media report of a section of a wooden
            fence being taken out.

1044 PM     Hail             1 WNW Valley            41.32N 96.37W
05/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Douglas            NE   NWS Employee

1045 PM     Hail             Valley                  41.31N 96.34W
05/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Douglas            NE   Public

            Delayed social media report.

1006 PM     Hail             2 NW Fremont            41.46N 96.51W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Dodge              NE   Public

0610 PM     Hail             2 E Union               40.81N 95.88W
05/15/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cass               NE   Trained Spotter

0700 AM     Rain             3 E Murray              40.92N 95.88W
05/16/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cass               NE   Public

            Storm total rainfall from storms moving
            through the area May 15-16. Pea sized hail
            was also reported.

0654 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Red Oak                 41.01N 95.22W
05/15/2026                   Montgomery         IA   Amateur Radio

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Red Oak. Power was reported out in parts of
            Red Oak. Power poles down and tree damage.

0658 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Red Oak             41.02N 95.27W
05/15/2026  M74 MPH          Montgomery         IA   AWOS

            AWOS station KRDK Red Oak Airport.

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Stanton                 40.98N 95.10W
05/15/2026                   Montgomery         IA   Trained Spotter

            Damage to siding and roofing reported in
            Stanton.

0702 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Stanton                 40.98N 95.10W
05/15/2026  M58 MPH          Montgomery         IA   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from
            Stanton. Public Weather Station.

0702 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Villisca                40.93N 94.98W
05/15/2026  M59 MPH          Montgomery         IA   Public

            Public Weather Station.

0623 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Randolph            40.90N 95.56W
05/15/2026                   Mills              IA   Emergency Mngr

            Farm augers blown over and grain wagons
            moved.

0639 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Emerson                 41.02N 95.40W
05/15/2026                   Mills              IA   Public

            Social media report/photo of a large tree
            limb down in town. Time estimated based on
            radar.

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Emerson                 41.02N 95.40W
05/15/2026                   Mills              IA   Broadcast Media

            Tree down at Emerson Cemetery.

0643 PM     Hail             1 NE Emerson            41.03N 95.39W
05/15/2026  E1.00 Inch       Mills              IA   Storm Chaser

            Chaser live stream of one inch hail.
            Location is approximate.

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tabor                   40.90N 95.67W
05/15/2026                   Fremont            IA   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down in Tabor.

0637 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Imogene                 40.88N 95.43W
05/15/2026                   Fremont            IA   Emergency Mngr

            Tress downed in Imogene.

&&

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:33 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 3:33 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 2.95 mi SSE of Stanton
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 40.940, -95.100

Broadcast media report of hail measured up to 1.00 inch in diameter.

Thunderstorm Wind, Montgomery

When: May 16, 3:45 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 2.95 mi SSE of Tenville
Measured: 56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 40.980, -94.980

Mesonet measured wind gust of 64 mph from Iowa DOT station.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 3:51 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 1.04 mi E of Stanton
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.980, -95.100

Public report of hail estimated up to 1.00 inch in diameter.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 4:12 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 0.87 mi SE of Red Oak
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.010, -95.220

Amateur radio report of hail measured up to 1.00 inch in diameter.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 4:15 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 0.69 mi S of Red Oak
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 41.010, -95.230

Public report of hail estimated up to 1.00 inch in diameter received via mPING.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 4:16 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 3.45 mi S of Red Oak
Measured: 2.75 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.970, -95.230

Public report of hail estimated up to 2.75 inches in diameter received via mPING.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 4:16 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 1.48 mi SSW of Red Oak
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 41.000, -95.240

Emergency management report of hail measured up to 1.75 inches in diameter southwest of Red Oak, IA.

Hail, Montgomery

When: May 16, 4:24 PM CST
Where: Montgomery County, 2.95 mi WNW of Stanton
Measured: 2 in hail
Reported by: Storm Chaser
Coordinates: 41.000, -95.170

Storm chaser report of hail measured up to 2 inches in diameter along with photo of two separate hailstones at this size.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Iowa in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in Iowa, May 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1336616, 1336623, 1336617, 1336618, 1336619, 1336620, 1336621, 1336622.