High Wind and High Surf in California, May 16 to 18, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1054 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

 - Breezy to windy conditions continuing, especially along the
   immediate coast

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected through this weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday across
   the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

 - Blustery winds for all beaches into the weekend and hazardous
   beach conditions for west facing beaches this afternoon through
   Monday morning

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Today and tonight)

Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure
over the West, with a disturbance digging across Northern
California early this morning. The fog imagery shows the leading
edge of the high clouds associated with this disturbance making it
into North Bay at this time, while other areas are still clear.
These high clouds will be relatively shorted lived though, as
this disturbance quickly dives into the Great Basin by this
afternoon. That said, this disturbance will help reinforce the
already moderate onshore pressures gradients across the region,
with the upper level support at 925 mbs increasing to 55 kts as
well, especially over the coastal waters. Therefore, given that
we are continuing to see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with an
isolated gust up to 50 mph along the immediate coast and the
coastal waters at this time, believe that it was prudent to issue
a Wind Advisory for the immediate coast from 11 am today through
5 am on Sunday, all except Santa Cruz which is slightly more
sheltered. Given the strong onshore gradient, expect high temperatures
today to be similar to those of yesterday for the coastal areas,
while inland areas will be several degrees cooler than those of
yesterday. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Another disturbance will then rotate through the trough and dive
into the Great Basin on Sunday, keeping moderate to strong
pressure gradients going across the region. They will shift
though, turning more northerly or northeasterly. The upper level
support also weakens ever so slightly. Therefore, do not think a
wind advisory will be needed on Sunday, but cannot rule it out
completely, especially for the North and East Bay hills and
mountains.

This broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through
the first part of the work week, with high pressure trying to
reestablish itself off the West Coast. This will keep Northern and
Central California situated between the two through at least
Tuesday, with dry northerly flow aloft. At this point in time, it
looks like the ridge may start to win out, with a warming trend
possible, especially for our inland areas. Coastal areas though
will likely fall back into our typical May gray pattern with
nighttime and early morning low clouds and fog.

By the end of the work week though, the ensembles are hinting at
another cut off low forming off of the California Coast. This will
likely help reinforce the marine layer and help cool things down
for the inland areas.  Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

A strong surface high pressure system over the eastern Pacific to
northernmost CA is resulting in a strong northerly 8.2 mb ACV-SFO
pressure gradient including a moderate 3.0 mb SFO-SAC onshore
pressure gradient. Strong and gusty northwest winds continue over
the coastal waters including gusty winds that'll overlap the
immediate coast in response to these surface gradients. Plenty of
turbulent mixing and drying within the boundary layer will result
in VFR. Wind swept seas leading to sea spray and sea salt aerosols
will also result in areas of reduced visibility in haze /MVFR/ near
the coastline. Surface winds at the inland terminals have the highest
probability of easing tonight and Sunday morning before resuming
Sunday under peak diurnal mixing.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 25 to 35 knots through 07z tonight
ease to 15 to 20 knots before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Sunday
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except for areas of haze /MVFR/ today.
West winds 15 to 25 knots, easing to 10 to 15 knots tonight and
Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

Strong surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary over
the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week. This will
result in widespread gale force to storm force northwesterly wind
gusts across the coastal waters. Storm warnings lower to gales for
Sunday. Expect rough seas through the weekend with up to 19 ft
waves during the strongest winds, but seas will ease into the work
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 509 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

Gusty offshore winds continue to build through the weekend,
leading to elevated fire concerns. Expect peak gusts above 30 mph
for most areas, with around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through
gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime
humidities of 10-20% will prevail across the interior regions and
higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong
winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing,
but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow
continues into the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing
beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong
winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong
wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating,
and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can
overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and
increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the
immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased
sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced
visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on
the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-
     10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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