During the afternoon and early evening hours on May 16th, a Mesoscale Convective Vortex moved from west-southwest to east-northeast across the lower Ohio Valley, providing forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Thunderstorms were able to feed off of a seasonably high amount of instability, with around 2000 J/kg Mixed-Layer CAPE present in the pre-storm environment.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
During the afternoon and early evening hours on May 16th, a Mesoscale Convective Vortex moved from west-southwest to east-northeast across the lower Ohio Valley, providing forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Thunderstorms were able to feed off of a seasonably high amount of instability, with around 2000 J/kg Mixed-Layer CAPE present in the pre-storm environment. While synoptic scale ridging over the southeast US meant that large scale flow was fairly weak, the MCV provided a mesoscale enhancement to the wind shear profile, with around 30-35 knots of effective shear supporting organized multicell clusters. Scattered strong to severe storms moved across southern Indiana, producing several reports of quarter sized hail and downed trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:10 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today, showers and thunderstorms are expected. This afternoon into evening, there is a chance for a few strong thunderstorms that could produce strong wind gusts and hail. * Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s this weekend into the beginning of next week. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Today, a surface high sitting over the Southeast will continue to funnel Gulf moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This moisture is combining over the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley with additional moisture arriving from the west being pushed by zonal flow. Precipitable water values are currently increasing and are expected to reach from 1.1" near Clinton County to around 1.6" closer to the Ohio River and into southern Indiana, and as shortwave activity moves east over the region, showers and thunderstorms will develop and push east through the CWA. High temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s to upper 80s. Higher temperatures are expected in southern Kentucky as that area is expected to see less overall precipitation that is expected to limit temperatures. This morning, thunderstorms will be possible, but model sounding look to keep most of the activity elevated with a stable layer at the surface. The treat of stronger storms is expected to be limited because of this. This evening, as some of the areas of higher PWATs work farther south into central Kentucky and instability increases due to the diurnal warming (driven by strong WAA), surface based thunderstorms are expected to develop. We could see pockets of better deep layer shear around 35 knots with instability increasing to around 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE and MUCAPE values reaching closer to 2,000 J/kg. This will help some of the stronger cells to produce strong gusty winds in the environment with steep low level lapse rates. With these lapse rates continuing into the mid-levels hail is also a concern. Any threat of stronger to severe thunderstorms depends on how much we are able to heat and recover by this afternoon/evening. Early cloud cover and rain showers are expected to limit temperatures along and north of Interstate 64, so this could leave the better instability farther south across central Kentucky for an late afternoon/evening thunderstorm. Tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s as an upper trough begins to dig south over the West. With an upper ridge forming over the Midwest and pushing east, showers are expected to lift north away from the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 Sunday and Monday, continued WAA with sunny skies will allow the heat to set in over the Lower Ohio Valley. The NBM continues to be on the warmer side of most other guidance and with the expected rainfall today into tonight, high temperatures were lowered slight to the mid 80s to upper 80s for Sunday and slightly warmer on Monday with temperatures in the upper 80s and crossing over into the low 90s. WAA at night will also limit cooling to the mid 60s to low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights. Tuesday, rain chances begin increasing again. Continued southern surface flow will continue carrying moisture into the region ahead of an approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Wednesday morning, slightly earlier than yesterday's guidance. Deep layer shear continues to be limited, but with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s, enough instability is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms until the passage of the front on Wednesday. Wednesday's high temperatures are expected to be somewhat limited to the upper 70s in parts of southern Indiana due to the passing of the cold front. Areas ahead of the front are still expected to reach into the 80s with the mid 80s being reached in and around Clinton County. Behind the front on Thursday, highs are expected to be around normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 70s, before temperatures begin to creep up into the low 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 A brief break from this morning/early afternoon's showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing for most places, with the next round expected to begin around 21z. Ceilings and visibilities should remain above VFR, but a heavier downpour could very briefly reduce ceilings and visibilities. Coverage of showers and storms will decrease after 0z, though a PROB30 was included across the terminals given the scattered nature in recent guidance. Occasional increased gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, quickly diminishing after sunset. Sunday will have dry and VFR conditions, with southerly gusts increasing during the afternoon hours. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...BEN
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 1120 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 INZ077-084-090>092-161545- Crawford IN-Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Harrison IN- 1120 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HARRISON...WEST CENTRAL CLARK...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT... At 1120 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Salem, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Half inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Galena, New Pekin, Palmyra, Borden, Greenville, Hardinsburg, Fredericksburg, Bradford, Martinsburg, and Shorts Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3837 8630 3849 8629 3852 8594 3835 8594 TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 270DEG 29KT 3844 8619 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH SRW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1206 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
INZ076-077-084-090-161630-
Crawford IN-Orange IN-Washington IN-Harrison IN-
1206 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...
At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Paoli, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Paoli, English, French Lick, Marengo, Milltown, Hardinsburg, Livonia,
Ethel, Trotter Crossing, and Valeene.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3856 8623 3833 8624 3838 8668 3843 8668
3853 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 272DEG 29KT 3845 8652
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
SRWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1229 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
INZ077-078-092-161700-
Washington IN-Clark IN-Scott IN-
1229 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLARK...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM
EDT...
At 1228 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Salem, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Salem, Blue River, New Pekin, Borden, Hardinsburg, Livonia,
Fredericksburg, Henryville, Carwood, and Martinsburg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3844 8574 3842 8614 3843 8631 3858 8631
3865 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 262DEG 40KT 3850 8612
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
SRWSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 1251 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 INZ077-091-092-KYZ031-161715- Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Oldham KY- 1251 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CLARK...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD... SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT... At 1251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles north of New Albany, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Charlestown, Sellersburg, New Pekin, Owen, Goshen, Borden, Speed, Saint Joseph, Henryville, and Starlight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3839 8602 3851 8603 3859 8556 3839 8553 TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 264DEG 37KT 3846 8588 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH SRW
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 1254 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 KYZ031>034-161730- Oldham KY-Shelby KY-Henry KY-Trimble KY- 1254 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN TRIMBLE AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT... At 1254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over La Grange, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... La Grange, New Castle, Pendleton, Crestwood, Eminence, Pewee Valley, Pleasureville, Campbellsburg, Smithfield, and North Pleasureville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3829 8548 3840 8551 3859 8513 3835 8501 TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 253DEG 33KT 3839 8537 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH SRW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
INZ083-084-089-162000-
Crawford IN-Perry IN-Dubois IN-
325 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DUBOIS...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
AND NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...
At 324 PM EDT/224 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dale, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Huntingburg, Ferdinand, Holland, Birdseye, Dubois, Celestine,
Bretzville, Taswell, and Mentor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3853 8681 3843 8668 3840 8668 3840 8664
3831 8653 3819 8679 3821 8679 3820 8707
3828 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 233DEG 40KT 3822 8695
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SRWThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:46 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down by strong winds on South Club Road, blocking part of the roadway.
Quarter sized hail was observed in several locations across northern Crawford County.
Quarter sized hail was observed in and around Corydon.
Trees were blown down on Sinking Creek Lane near Hardinsburg.
Power lines were downed along US Route 150 in Hardinsburg.
A tree was downed along North Mill Street in Pekin.
Power lines were downed by strong winds on Tunnel Mill Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1341769, 1341770, 1341771, 1341772, 1341773, 1341776, 1341777.