A strong surface high pressure caused tightening of the local pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean. Satellite wind data indicated wind speeds up to 25 kt across the surrounding waters of the islands.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A strong surface high pressure caused tightening of the local pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean. Satellite wind data indicated wind speeds up to 25 kt across the surrounding waters of the islands.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 4:22 PM AST, 3 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
422 PM AST Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Variable weather conditions will continue to persist across the
region for the next few days, gradually becoming unstable and
wetter by the end of the workweek. Breezy conditions will prevail
through mid-week under the influence of a surface high pressure
over the northeastern Atlantic. Breezy winds will continue to promote
choppy seas and hazardous conditions for small craft operators.
Weather conditions will gradually become wet and unstable by the
end of the workweek with the arrival of a cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
Strong gusty winds persisted during the day across the region, with
speeds at 20 to 30 mph in coastal areas. These winds also brought
some showers into the region, but rainfall accumulations were not
too significant.
A mid to upper level ridge will maintain stable conditions across
the region today, but the high will gradually move eastward as a
cold front exits the eastern coast of the United States. At the
surface, high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic maintains the
gradient tight, with trade winds coming out of the east-southeast at
20-25 mph through tomorrow. Under this pattern, shallow patches of
moisture will continue to move into the region, with quick passing
showers anticipated across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico. Since the winds are so strong, and the atmosphere is stable,
the usual afternoon activity across western Puerto Rico is not
expected to be too strong, or last long. Therefore, flooding is not
anticipated.
Some changes are anticipated for Thursday too, with a surface trough
approaching from the southeast. First, the trade winds will weaken,
and speeds will be closer to normal, around 10 to 15 mph. Also, with
the ridge moving away, conditions aloft will be more favorable for
shower activity, with the heaviest showers anticipated for the
interior and northwestern corner of Puerto Rico.
It is worth mentioning that ahead of the cold front the winds are
expected to shift from the south on Wednesday and early Thursday.
This will make temperatures to climb, with 925 mb values well above
normal, hence highs will be hovering around the upper 80s or the 90
degree mark for the coastal areas, while it will remain cooler at
higher elevations.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Global model guidance and the current forecast indicate a wetter
pattern from Friday into at least Saturday, driven by a mid-to-
upper-level trough and its associated features, including a
persistent segment jet. These elements will sustain a dynamically
favorable environment for convective development early in the
weekend. However, by Sunday into early next week, a mid-level
ridge advancing from the west will introduce drier air
entrainment and a developing trade wind cap inversion, suppressing
deep convection and limiting rainfall potential. Strengthening
east-to-east-northeast winds will add to this scenario, producing
breezy conditions while also enhancing trade wind showers,
particularly at night.
Reflecting the synoptic pattern, deep-layer moisture will peak
Friday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.8 inches,
before gradually decreasing from Sunday night onward. Rain chances
will be highest Friday (60-70 percent), tapering to 40-50 percent
over the weekend and 30-40 percent by Monday. While overall
trends support drier conditions by early next week, model
variability in the timing of moisture decline introduces some
uncertainty.
Localized flooding remains a concern Friday, particularly for
windward areas of NE PR at night and interior to W-SW PR by day.
As rain chances decline, the flooding risk will diminish, though
isolated minor flooding remains possible. Any shifts in
moisture availability or wind flow could modify these impacts,
Temperatures should remain near climatological averages with no
significant concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this forecast period. Quick
moving VCSH and -RA/SHRA are anticipated to reach terminals at
times during the overnight period, mainly across TJSJ and USVI TAF
sites. Mainly easterly winds up to around 12 to 20 kts with higher
gusts will prevail through 21-22Z, decreasing somewhat after.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface high pressure system building over the Central Atlantic
is tightening the local pressure gradient, bringing moderate to
fresh trade winds through midweek, with similar conditions returning
by Friday into the weekend. These strengthening winds will generate
choppy and rough seas, prompting Small Craft Advisories for offshore
waters and local passages through at least Wednesday evening.
Furthermore, a cold front and pre-frontal trough approaching the
region will increase shower and thunderstorm activity starting
Thursday.
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
Breezy trades will continue for the next few days, promoting a
moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches and coastal areas
of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Since life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zone, beachgoers should exercise caution throughout the week. For
more details, please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFSJU).
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723-733-
741.
&&
SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...YZRPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 439 AM AST martes 25 de marzo de 2025 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-260845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 439 AM AST martes 25 de marzo de 2025 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Condiciones de Brisa fuerte a condiciones ventosas (20-25 kts | 25-30 mph), con el mayor riesgo a través de los sectores costeros de Puerto Rico, Culebra y Vieques. Los artículos al aire libre podrían salir volando. .Condiciones Marítimas...Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas en áreas con oleaje de 7 pies o más, particularmente a través de las aguas mar afuera y el Pasaje de Mona. Las embarcaciones pequeñas deberian ejercer precaución sobre el resto de las aguas locales. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en la zona de resaca, particularmente a través de la mayoría de las playas en Puerto Rico, Culebra y Vieques. Corrientes marinas aisladas más fuertes pueden ocurrir en otros lugares, especialmente cerca de muelles y canales. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...miércoles a lunes Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosa continuarán hasta al menos mediados de la semana y luego nuevamente el fin de semana y el lunes, esto aumentará los aguaceros en los vientos alisios a través de las islas locales especialmente en la segunda parte de la semana. Corrientes marinas moderadas y Advertencias para Embarcaciones Pequeñas (o Embarcaciones Pequeñas Deberian Ejercer Precaución) probablemente continuarán durante los próximos días debido a los vientos alisios fuertes. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES... No será necesaria la activación de observadores. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-260845- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 439 AM AST martes 25 de marzo de 2025 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Condiciones de Brisa fuerte a condiciones ventosas (20-25 kts | 25-30 mph), con el mayor riesgo a través de los sectores costeros de St. Thomas, St. John y St. Croix. Los artículos al aire libre podrían salir volando. .Condiciones Marítimas...Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas en áreas con oleaje de 7 pies o más, particularmente a través de las aguas mar afuera y el Pasaje de Anegada. Las embarcaciones pequeñas deberian ejercer precaución sobre el resto de las aguas locales. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son posibles en la zona de resaca, particularmente a través de la mayoría de las playas en St. Thomas, St. John y St. Croix. Corrientes marinas aisladas más fuertes pueden ocurrir en otros lugares, especialmente cerca de muelles y canales. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...miércoles a lunes Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosa continuarán hasta al menos mediados de la semana y luego nuevamente el fin de semana y el lunes, esto aumentará los aguaceros en los vientos alisios a través de las islas locales especialmente en la segunda parte de la semana. Corrientes marinas moderadas y Advertencias para Embarcaciones Pequeñas (o Embarcaciones Pequeñas Deberian Ejercer Precaución) probablemente continuarán durante los próximos días debido a los vientos alisios fuertes. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES... No será necesaria la activación de observadores.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency manager reported fallen trees at PR-250 in front of OMME Culebra. Wind gusts were at 25 to 30 mph, estimated by radar and from a weather station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1249926.