High Surf in California, March 25, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1245 PM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

One more day of summertime warmth today with high temperatures
generally in the middle 70s to near 90. Seasonal temperatures and
light rain return tomorrow, with an impactful system possible this
weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

The skies are clear across most of the region as another day of
summertime temperatures and light winds prevails over the region.
High temperatures across the region range from the middle 80s to
near 90 for the inland valleys, the lower to middle 80s at the Bays,
and the 70s across the Pacific coast. Satellite imagery is showing a
southerly surge that is making its way along the Big Sur coast, and
we are continuing to monitor its northward progression. The stratus
is just making its way into the coastal regions, which when combined
to the extreme elevation differences along the Big Sur coast, and we
should get a better idea of how it will impact the region over the
next couple of hours. In contrast, it is looking increasingly likely
that the onset of high cloud cover that made today's forecast more
uncertain this time yesterday should hold off until after sunset.

Assuming the current forecast holds, Minor HeatRisk is expected
across the region, corresponding to a minor risk of heat-related
illnesses for people extremely sensitive to heat exposure. Patches
of the Salinas Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains remain in Moderate
HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat related
illnesses for sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated as
the warm temperatures continue!

Wednesday will see a pattern shift as the upper level ridge that has
provided us the last few days of warm weather moves out, and an
upper level trough impacts the Pacific Northwest. This will being
cooler and rainier conditions to the Bay Area and Central Coast.
High temperatures on Wednesday reach the upper 60s to the middle 70s
in the inland valleys of the Bay Area and Central Coast, and the
lower to middle 60s in the North Bay valleys, the Bayshore, and the
coastal regions. Light rain is expected across the North Bay and the
coastal ranges, with around a quarter to a half an inch across the
North Bay, a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the coastal ranges,
and up to a tenth of an inch in the area near San Francisco and
Oakland and the East bay and eastern Santa Clara hills. The interior
regions should cloud over, but are not expected to receive
measurable rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Seasonal temperatures return to the region Thursday with highs in
the upper 50s into the 60s. Additional fringe rainfall is possible
through the early part of Friday with an additional quarter to half
an inch possible across the North Bay coastal ranges, generally up
to a quarter of an inch in the coastal ranges and the North Bay
valleys, and up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and
coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.

More impactful systems approach the Bay Area and Central Coast
starting Saturday night. The first system is expected to continue
through Sunday into the early part of Monday. Early estimates
suggest that rainfall totals could be modest from this system, with
the potential for totals up to a quarter an inch in the lower
elevations, significantly less in rain shadowed areas, and perhaps
as much as a half an inch in the higher elevations. This rain
amounts could be a precursor for an even more intense system for the
first couple days of April. Confidence is increasing in highly
significant rainfall for this time period. It is still too early to
pin down any specific rain totals, but ensemble model cluster
analysis continues to support widespread rain totals of at least 1-2
inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

VFR through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure remains in place.
Light winds late this morning expected to turn onshore by late
afternoon or early evening. However, they are forecast to be less
than 10kt. Conditions begin to deteriorate late this evening as a
southerly surge is moving northward along the Big Sur coast. Thus,
low ceilings are forecast to impact the Monterey Bay terminals first
with a 20-50% chance of visibilities being less than 1/2SM, however
confidence is not high enough to put in the current TAF. The rest of
the Bay Area, expecting low clouds to return by around 13-15Z
Wednesday with possible fog in for KSTS. For our 30 hour TAF sites,
unsure clearing will take place by 00Z Thursday and will keep BKN025
in for now.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions to prevail through early Tuesday
afternoon. Expecting an onshore gentle breeze by early afternoon.
MVFR ceilings return around 13-15Z Wednesday and could potentially
linger through the TAF period. Westerly winds will increase toward
the latter half of the TAF period as a frontal boundary approaches
from the north.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions for the first part of the
TAFs then beginning to deteriorate late this evening with the return
of low clouds and/or fog. There is a 20-50% chance of visibilities
being less than 1/2SM after about 05Z Wednesday, however confidence
is not high enough to put in the current TAF. However, confidence in
low clouds returning is high (60-100%) with IFR/LIFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Northerly light to gentle breezes continue through Tuesday night
with winds turning southerly and becoming moderate to fresh by mid
Wednesday. Seas will flux between moderate and rough through
Wednesday. Conditions deteriorate Thursday when a west to
northwest breezes become fresh and seas become rough. Unsettled
conditions continue through the weekend and into the next work
week as storm systems move through the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday morning
for all Pacific Coast beaches. The warm conditions on land will do
nothing to the Pacific Ocean that is 51-57 degrees. In addition
to the cold water shock risk that is always present, there will be
an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Observe the
ocean for 20 minutes before you pick a spot on the beach, stay
off of jetties and rocks, keep pets on a leash, wear a life
jacket, and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 821 AM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Record high temperatures at the long term stations for March 25th.

Station          March 25th

Santa Rosa       88F in 1952
Kentfield        84F in 1997, 1930
Napa             85F in 1988, 1970
Richmond         83F in 1952
Livermore        82F in 1997
San Francisco    83F in 1952
SFO Airport      85F in 1952
Redwood City     84F in 1952
Half Moon Bay    72F in 1969, 1947
Oakland downtown 80F in 1988
San Jose         84F in 1930
Salinas Airport  85F in 1988
King City        87F in 1988, 1930

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...KR

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