Hail in Texas, March 25, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record to record heat is expected across the area this
  afternoon with highs around 90 degrees.

- There is a low chance (20%) for a few strong storms to develop
  near and/or south of the Metroplex as early as 3 pm with better
  coverage Tuesday evening. The main threats will be strong
  downburst winds and small hail.

- Intermittent storm chances continue tonight through Friday
  across the region. Highest chances for rain occur on Thursday
  and Friday.

- Average rainfall totals through the week range from 1/2 to 2
  inches with isolated higher amounts near 3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 116 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/
/This Afternoon through Wednesday Night/

The main highlights for the rest of the day are the late spring
or early summer temperatures this afternoon and the return of
storm chances mainly for North Texas. We're still looking at highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s and the potential for a couple of
storms to develop as early as 3 pm. The main focus for
development will be near and west of the I-35 corridor as a
diffuse dryline develops in that area. This activity should remain
very isolated, however any storms that develop will be short-
lived but capable of producing strong downburst winds. For the
evening and overnight hours, the combination of a weak surface
front moving from southern Oklahoma and better mid-level ascent
will result in another round of scattered showers and storms to
develop across north and northeast Texas. Forecast soundings from
the latest high-res guidance continue to support the threat for at
least small hail and gusty winds. The highest coverage is
expected to remain along the Red River to the northeast counties
through the morning hours of Wednesday. Most of the activity will
shift to the east and exit our region during the late afternoon or
early evening. The main threats with this round of precip will be
frequent lightning and brief periods of moderate to heavy rain.
No severe weather is expected.

Otherwise, there will be a big gradient in the temperatures for
tomorrow. Areas to the northeast will likely stay in the 70s with
80s elsewhere. A few locations across the far western and southern
zones are expected to reach the upper 80s given the lack of rain
and/or clouds.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Early Next Week/

The weather pattern will remain fairly active Thursday and Friday
as a southern stream shortwave moves across the state. The
combination of plenty of moisture and large scale ascent will
result in widespread rain chances through Friday afternoon. The
precipitation will begin to develop near the Big Country region
Wednesday night and spread northward into our area during the day
Thursday. The greatest coverage is still expected to be across
Central Texas and slowly shift to North and East Texas Thursday
night and Friday. At this time, the environment doesn't look to support
severe weather. The main concern will be the potential for
pockets of moderate or heavy rain. Given the lack of recent
rainfall and dry soils, the threat for flash flooding is low.
However, minor flooding can still occur especially in those
locations that see multiple rounds. Average rainfall totals
through the end of the week still range from half an inch to 2
inches with isolated higher amounts (10% coverage) near 3 inches.

Saturday-Monday: Models continue to trend toward a dry weekend
for our area with the exception of a low chance for storms late
Sunday into Monday. Another mid-level system will send a cold
front southward on Sunday, but we might be lacking sufficient
moisture for organized convection across our region. If storms
develop, there could be a threat for strong to severe storms, but
confidence remains low at this time.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 116 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Potential for isolated convection late afternoon into
the evening. Another round of scattered precipitation on
Wednesday.

The latest forecast now includes the risk of VCTS later this
afternoon and evening for the DFW Metroplex sites. Based on the
high-res model trends, confidence has increased that a few storms
may develop near the D10 region between 22Z and 03Z this evening.
If storms develop not only will they pose a threat for lightning,
but also gusty winds near 40-50 mph and small hail. For Waco, the
probabilities are lower (around 10-15%). Anything that develops
should dissipate shortly after sunset or most of the activity
develops north/northeast of the sites.

Scattered showers and storms are still expected to move from
southern Oklahoma into northeast Texas during the early morning
hours. While this activity is expected to stay mostly to the
northeast of the DFW Metroplex, some of this may get close to
some of the sites. To account this potential, we introduced VCSH
between 15Z to 21Z. Outside of any convection, winds will remain
from the east-southeast around 5-10kts through tomorrow with VFR
ceilings.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested across North and
Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is
not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  82  61  78  60 /  30  30   5  50  70
Waco                62  84  62  72  60 /   5   5  10  70  70
Paris               57  71  56  77  59 /  70  70   5  20  50
Denton              58  81  58  78  57 /  40  40   5  40  60
McKinney            59  79  58  77  59 /  50  50   0  30  60
Dallas              63  82  61  77  61 /  40  30   5  40  70
Terrell             60  79  59  77  59 /  30  30   5  40  60
Corsicana           62  84  61  76  61 /  10  10   5  50  70
Temple              60  84  62  73  59 /   5   5  20  80  80
Mineral Wells       60  87  59  78  57 /  20  20  10  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
509 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

TXZ119>121-252245-
Kaufman TX-Rockwall TX-Dallas TX-
509 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Rockwall, northwestern Kaufman and northeastern Dallas Counties
through 545 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dallas, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seagoville, Sunnyvale, Mesquite, Lake Ray Hubbard, Balch Springs,
White Rock Lake, Garland, Rowlett, Dallas, Heath, University Park,
Rockwall, Highland Park, Forney, Hutchins, and Combine.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 474 and 487.
 Interstate 30 between mile markers 46 and 67.
 Interstate 45 between mile markers 277 and 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3269 9680 3292 9679 3294 9646 3261 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 276DEG 15KT 3279 9669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Langfeld

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
514 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

TXZ133-252245-
Johnson TX-
514 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Johnson
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cleburne, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Joshua, Cleburne, and Keene around 520 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Briaroaks, Sand Flat,
Coyote Flats, Egan, Parker, and Lillian.

This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 23 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 9751 3252 9719 3224 9721 3223 9727
      3229 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 276DEG 14KT 3239 9742

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Langfeld