High Wind and Strong Wind in North Carolina, March 4 to 5, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
658 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front brings gusty winds, showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms tonight and into Wednesday. Brief chance of snow at
the NC/TN border behind the front tomorrow. High pressure returns
Friday with another active pattern this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Gusty winds with a cold front prompt a Wind Advisory for the
entire CWA and High Wind Warning for portions of the mountains above
3500ft.

2) A line of showers and possible thunderstorms crosses the area
tonight into Wednesday morning. Severe thunderstorms possible east
of I-26.

3) Brief NW flow snow possible along the TN/NC border behind the
front.

As of 655 PM EST Tuesday: Cloudy skies and spotty light showers
expected this evening. Gusty S to SE winds will pick up across
the area as well.

Otherwise, a busy near term as a trough over the central CONUS
skirts an area of low pressure to the north and swings a cold front
into the area. Ahead of the front, gusty winds continue overnight.
Afterwards, a line of showers and thunderstorms approaches the area
from the west. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 and 2
have most of the area in a Marginal chance with areas east of I-77
in a slight chance for severe weather. Current guidance from CAMs
weakens the line when it reaches the NC mountains after midnight
through early Wednesday morning. Some guidance from the HREF/HRRR
tries to increase sbCAPE right at sunrise, increasing the potential
for severe weather by the time the line reaches the I-77 corridor.
Looking at modeled soundings, strong shear of 70-90kts is in place
and plenty of forcing and moisture. But as is the pattern for this
area, it doesn't take much instability to increase the severe
potential. Damaging winds are the main threat, but a weak tornado or
two cannot be ruled out. Timing for the front is after midnight for
the mountains and the I-77 corridor including Charlotte around 6-
8AM. Additionally, winds with this front, both ahead and behind, are
expected to be very gusty. For this, a High Wind Warning will be in
effect from 7PM tonight through 1PM Wednesday for the mountain
locations above 3500ft. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the
mountains from 7PM tonight through 1 PM Wednesday, with the
likelihood of extension at a later time. Given the increasing
confidence of gusty winds, the Wind Advisory was extended to all
areas east of the mountains from 4AM through 7PM Wednesday. Expect
wind gusts up to 70 mph for zones above 3500ft and gusts 40-50mph
elsewhere. Lastly, as the front pushes out of the CWA Wednesday
afternoon, if colder air can reach the TN/NC border, there is a
chance of NW flow snow at the very end of this forecast period and
into the next. More in the preceding discussion. All in all, an
active period with gusty winds, strong to severe weather and
possible snow burst for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of midday Tue: Base of shortwave trough will pass the Appalachians
Wednesday evening. Winds will veer to NW and most models produce
light precip along the TN border from then through Thursday morning.
Small SBCAPE is seen on prog soundings mainly during the evening,
which might help make up for temperatures being a bit too warm to
expect good ice nucleation in that phase of the event. The column
cools over the remainder of the night and thus snow ratios should
trend upward by around midnight, with most of the moisture then being
at temperatures favorable for dendritic growth. The moisture in the
upslope layer becomes increasingly shallow around/after daybreak Thu
and chances thus taper off thru the remainder of the morning. Higher
elevations along the border may see upwards of 4" accums, but the
more populated areas take longer to cool and thus still see only 0.5
to 2 inches. Will add a mention to the HWO. The mountains appear
likely to experience Advisory level winds/gusts Wed night and a
portion of Thursday; high elevations could flirt with High Wind
Warning criteria once again. The same period certainly will be
windy/gusty in the Piedmont but not yet confident we will see
Advisory criteria. Lows Wed night will be near normal in the eastern
CWA but as much as 5 below normal in the mountains; wind chills near
zero appear likely in high elevations. Skies will trend clearer
Thursday where not already so. Maxes will be 6-8 below normal in the
Piedmont and 10 or more below normal in the mountains.

Winds will diminish Thu night. A weak ridge will build overhead in
the low to mid levels; high altitude cloud cover will increase as
left exit region of jet streak moves over the CWA. On these notes,
despite the calming winds min temps end up similar to the previous
night in the western half of the area, but a few degrees cooler in
the east. The cloud cover will be transient and clearing skies are
expected for a time Friday. Ridge axis also will be transient and
next shortwave will move thru the mid-MS Valley at that time. Low
level flow backs to SW in turn as warm front shifts across the CWA,
which will help temps rebound a few degrees above normal. High
elevations of the mountains may see strengthening southerly winds Fri
afternoon in advance of the cold front associated with the MS Valley
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue:  Strong southerly to southwesterly winds will
continue overnight in higher elevations, with WAA ongoing near or in
the wake of the warm front. Low levels appear to remain rather dry
and it is questionable whether saturation will occur even aloft, so
PoPs will be low over the south-facing Escarpment. However, cold
front will reach the Appalachians early Saturday morning, as parent
low moves by to our north. The front looks capable of light upslope
precip on the TN border around that time. Temperatures even in higher
elevations will probably be too warm for anything but rain as a
result. Downslope flow will lead to warm temps in the upper 60s to
around 70 across the Piedmont Saturday afternoon. Cold front will
stall south of our CWA Saturday night.

Meanwhile, on Saturday a deep southern-stream trough is likely to
envelop a cutoff low invof the southern Rockies. As the trough shifts
east across the Gulf states, models reactivate the front and/or
develop dynamic lift over our area and produce another round of
precip chances Saturday night and early Sunday. CAA with the passing
trough appears capable of cooling the column enough to expect snow in
higher elevations with additional light accumulations possible. It is
worth noting that the new ECMWF keeps the upper low cut off longer
and suggests the frontal activation may occur a bit farther south,
bringing less chance of precip to our area, but also delaying the end
of any precip chances that develop until Monday. Assuming the GFS and
NBM like timing verifies, temps will trend cooler for Sunday, near to
a little below normal. Gusty winds will redevelop on the ridgetops
and continue Sunday night, with dry weather and warmer temperatures
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR, MVFR at KAVL, conditions will
deteriorate overnight as a strong cold front approaches from the
west. S to SE winds will also pick up and become very gusty. Expect
MVFR with showers developing. A line of TSRA moves through as well.
Timing is a little uncertain, so retained the PROB30. Plus, the
actual time TS affect terminals will be relatively short. IFR is
possible with the line of storms as well. LLWS also expected with
the front as a strong low level jet crosses the area. Conditions
improve to MVFR and VFR through the morning as the front moves east
of the area and drier air moves in. Winds turn SW and and remain
very gusty as well.

Outlook: Gusty winds linger into Thursday. VFR Thursday and Friday.
A weak cold front may bring showers and associated restrictions
Saturday. A Gulf low may bring additional showers and associated
restrictions on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for all of
our zones from 6 AM to 8 PM Tuesday.

Moisture is slow to return this afternoon and rain is not expected
to develop until the overnight hours. Winds pickup this afternoon
and through the overnight hours. Following coordination with
forestry officials in NC, SC, and GA, another Increased Fire Danger
Statement remains in effect for Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ010-017.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ048-049-
     051>053-058-059-062>064.
SC...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EST this evening for
     SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for SCZ101>103.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for SCZ008>014-
     019-104>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-052015-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ053-059-062>064-052015-
Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.
   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-052015-
Rabun-Habersham-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-049-051-052-058-052015-
Madison-Yancey-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.
   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

Accumulating snow is expected along the Tennessee border Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning. Most populated areas will see
less than 2 inches, but high elevations on northwest facing ridges
could see up to 4 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-050-052015-
Avery-Mitchell-
310 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Accumulating snow is expected along the Tennessee border Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning. Most populated areas will see
less than 2 inches, but high elevations on northwest facing ridges
could see up to 4 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley