Two waves of heavy rainfall (2-7) over the Ohio, Tennessee, and Green River Valleys on the 15th resulted in minor flooding along a large portion of the Ohio River, including the Evansville, Henderson, Golconda, Smithland, and Cairo areas. Minor and moderate flooding occurred around Owensboro, Paducah, and Olmsted.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Two waves of heavy rainfall (2-7) over the Ohio, Tennessee, and Green River Valleys on the 15th resulted in minor flooding along a large portion of the Ohio River, including the Evansville, Henderson, Golconda, Smithland, and Cairo areas. Minor and moderate flooding occurred around Owensboro, Paducah, and Olmsted. The river crested at moderate flood levels at Owensboro (44.1 feet), Paducah (43.2 feet), and Olmsted (42.9 feet). Minor flooding near Olmsted and Cairo continued into early March.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 2:31 AM CST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 231 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is possible this afternoon and tonight across portions west Kentucky and southwest Indiana and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. - Some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become severe in areas along the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two are the main threats. - Accumulating snow is looking increasingly likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall amounts could be high enough to cause travel impacts. - Dangerous, bitter cold is forecast for most of next week. Low temperatures in the single digits and subzero wind chills are forecast the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is possible over parts of western Kentucky today. Adjacent parts of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri may see significant or considerable flash flooding as well. The set up is a classic one for flash flooding in our region: 1) Surface low pressure over the central Great Plains is funneling a moisture-laden Gulf airmass northward into the region; 2) A stalled warm frontal boundary that will help initiate training convection; and 3) A final push of heavy rain from thunderstorms that develop ahead of the trailing cold front. What makes this system so concerning is the residence time of 200-400% of normal PWAT values combined with a very strong 40-50 kt 850 LLJ. Both of these features interacting with the stalled warm front for potentially 12 to 18 hours today will result in several hours of 0.50-1.00"/hr rainfall rates this morning and afternoon. In fact, the heaviest rain may not fall until the end of the event this evening when thunderstorms associated with the approaching cold front arrive, when 1-2"/hr rates are possible for short window. The model guidance continues to trend upward with QPF amounts across the ongoing Flood Watch for western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Right now, we're expecting a broad brush of 2.5-5" of rain in the Flood Watch through late tonight, with a corridor of higher amounts of 5-8" somewhere in western Kentucky. The latest high- res model guidance has been keying in on a corridor of extreme rainfall amounts somewhere in the southern KY Purchase and southern KY Pennyrile, mainly along a line from Fulton to Murray to Hopkinsville to Elkton. The forecast rainfall amounts are not unheard of in our region, but they usually occur in the warm season. In warm season heavy rain events, the ground is warmer and drier, stream levels are lower, and there is vegetation to intercept rainfall before it drains to waterways. There will not be any of these mitigating factors for this event. The soil is cold and soggy; there is no vegetation to lessen runoff; area streams and river are already running high. All these factors point to the potential for a corridor of extremely dangerous and possibly historic flooding, which is most likely to set up near the KY/TN border. A relatively recent analog for this event occurred on February 28, 2021, when training thunderstorms produced a small swath of 3-7" of rain from Murry to Hopkinsville to Elkton in western KY. This produced considerable flash flooding in both Murray and Hopkinsville and prompted a Flash Flood Emergency and evacuations for Elkton in Todd County, KY. If the forecast rainfall totals pan out, we could be looking at similar impacts but across a larger area. Beyond the flooding, we will need to watch for the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening for southern parts of western Kentucky. This would mainly be with the line of thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front and will depend on if surface-based instability can advect into the region. If it does, a few mesovorticies may develop with in the main squall line, with a locally enhanced straight- line wind and spin-up tornado risk. The risk will be greatest from roughly the 22z/Sat to 06z/Sun period. As the system the departs the region, another blast of bitter Arctic air will surge into the region overnight through much of next week. Depending on how fast the cold air arrives, some of the precipitation early Sunday morning could end as snow showers with blustery NW winds. Temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday, which yields high temperatures from 25-35F and lows of 15-25F. Confidence is growing that accumulating snow will impact much of the region from the latter half of Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This will be driving by a southern-stream surface low that will pass through the Mid-South. Thermal profiles look to be cold enough for all snow, and the latest forecast as it stand shows impactful accumulations over the entire region. Don't want to get into specific numbers at this range, but the latest NBM guidance shows about 50-75% chance of the area seeing 2" of snow or more and a 25-50% chance of 4" or more. A lot can still change a few days out, but if you have travel plans during the Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM period, you may want to consider changing them. After the system exits the region, dangerous cold will surge into the area as a 1050 mb Arctic high pressure plunges southward into the Midwest. High temperatures will only reach the 15-25F range Wednesday through Friday, with overnight lows in the low single digits possible. Subzero wind chill values are likely as well. Depending on snow pack and winds, some locations could see their coldest temperatures of the winter season so far. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 502 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Flight conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight as our next weather system pushes into the FA. Restricted CIGS become commonplace before daybreak as VSBY-restricting rains develop. Further deterioration into the day tmrw is anticipated as widespread Marginal restrictions become Instrument restrictions by/during the daylight morning hours. At this writing, we kept thunder out of the terminals, as the main chance resides just south of the airport forecast radius. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ082-083-085>094. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ108>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022. && DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 337 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 337 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 /437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Considerable to potentially major flash flooding is expected today into tonight across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana as well as adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Refer to the Flood Watch for more details. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight for locations near the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two are the main risks. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Accumulating snowfall with travel impacts is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dangerous cold is forecast for much of next week. Morning wind chill values will be near or below zero from Wednesday through Friday. Widespread river flooding will continue or is forecast to develop long parts of the Ohio and Green Rivers for the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of flooding, heavy rainfall measurements, and any damage reports from thunderstorms would be appreciated today and tonight. DWS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor to moderate flooding of bottomland and other low-lying areas occurred near the Olmsted Lock and Dam. The river crested at 42.94' on the 19th. The moderate flood level is 42 feet. Minor flooding continued into early March.
Minor flooding of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Cairo. Minor flooding continued into early March.
Minor to moderate flooding of agricultural bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Paducah. The river crested at 43.23' on the 19th and hovered near that level from 19th through the 24th. The moderate flood level is 43'.
Minor to moderate flooding of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Owensboro. The river crested at 44.1' on the 21st which is just above the moderate flood level of 44'.
Minor flooding of bottomland and low-lying areas occurred near Golconda.
Minor flooding of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Smithland.
Minor flooding of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Henderson. Several roads flooded, including Horseshoe Bend Rd on Hwy 136, Kentucky 268 at the four-mile marker past McDonald Landing Rd, Gray-Adridge Rd, Old River Rd, Green River Rd, Stratman Rd and Wolf Hills Rd.
Minor flooding of bottomland and other low-lying areas occurred near Evansville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1233241, 1233243, 1233239, 1233218, 1233232, 1233234, 1233230, 1233220.