Cold in Arizona, February 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will move through Southeast Arizona
today into early Saturday. The main impact with this system will
be the strong and gusty winds with the potential for blowing dust
east of Tucson. Although this system will bring with it higher
probabilities for valley rain and high elevation snow, precipitation
amounts will be generally light with only minor impacts. Dry and
warm conditions will return Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern this afternoon is defined by a
strong trough of low pressure moving moving through the Great
Basin with the southern portion of this feature tracking through
the northern half of Arizona with a cold front sagging to its
southwest extending from central AZ to SW AZ. Southeast Arizona
resides on the far southern periphery of this system this
afternoon. Strong and gusty winds have made it down to the
surface SE/E of Tucson early this afternoon with observed wind
gusts across Cochise county between 32-43 mph. Starting to see
some blowing dust of the webcams over the past hour near the
Willcox Playa and the I-10 corridor to the east of Willcox to the
AZ/NM state line with the stronger gusts. One of the observations
near I-10/Bowie reporting visibility down to a half mile. I would
anticipate the winds to pick up a little more over the next few
hours with more widespread wind gusts between 40-45 mph. We
currently have a Wind Advisory and Blowing Dust Advisory for the
aforementioned areas until 7 PM MST. It looks like these products
will hold up well given current trends.

Otherwise, even though there really hasn't been any pcpn across
Southeast Arizona with this system, we can expect this to change
this evening as the cold front drags SE across the area. Given the
moisture present, I still believe this is a higher PoP/lower QPF
type of scenario as the boundary moves thru...but I am a little
nervous given the paucity of radar echoes in our CWA. Expect light
precipitation amounts in the valleys (trace-0.10" with localized
areas up to 0.25") and slightly higher amounts (between a quarter
to half inch) in the higher terrain. This would be reflected as
only 1-3 inches of snowfall above 7000 feet in the Catalina and
Pinaleno Mountains and 2 to 5 inches near the White Mountains.

The weather system will push out Saturday morning. Temperatures
will feel slightly cooler than the previous two days, but
temperatures will bounce back starting on Sunday due to a shortwave
ridge building in behind the departing trough. Southeast Arizona
will start to warm up again and dry out for the start of the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z. SCT-BKN 5-8 kft AGL through
Saturday morning, then SCT-BKN AOA 20 kft AGL Saturday afternoon.
Mountain obscurations and scattered-numerous valley -SHRA and
mountain this evening (between 15/00Z - 15/09Z) with the passage
of a cold front trough SE AZ. SFC winds SWLY 15-25 kts with gusts
35-40 kts east of Tucson toward the Arizona and New Mexico state
line. These winds may result in VSBY 1-3SM BLDU with localized
areas below 1SM BLDU this afternoon into the early evening. After
15/09Z, winds will decrease to NWLY 8-12 kts until the end of the
forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will move through Southeast
Arizona today into early Saturday. The main impact with this
system will be the strong and gusty southwest winds (southwest
15-25 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph) and the potential for blowing
dust east of Tucson to the Arizona and New Mexico border this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Chances for precipitation
will start to increase late this afternoon into this evening with
the passage of a frontal boundary. Precipitation amounts will
remain rather light, generally ranging from a trace to a quarter
inch in the valleys. The higher elevations of northern Graham and
Greenlee counties may receive up to a half inch of water
equivalent, with locations above 7000 feet receiving between 1-4
inches of snowfall. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture
will keep min RH values in the 15 to 25 percent range through
Saturday. Dry with warmer temperatures Sunday into the middle of
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ508-509.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.

&&

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