A strong storm system moved across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on February 15th and 16th, 2025, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding, severe weather, and winter weather to central Kentucky. The large scale upper level pattern featured deep troughing ejecting across the central CONUS, with broad southwesterly flow occurring in the low and mid troposphere.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A strong storm system moved across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on February 15th and 16th, 2025, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding, severe weather, and winter weather to central Kentucky. The large scale upper level pattern featured deep troughing ejecting across the central CONUS, with broad southwesterly flow occurring in the low and mid troposphere. Southerly flow helped to draw rich moisture up from the Gulf of America, with unseasonably high precipitable water for the middle of February, generally between 1.1 and 1.3 inches, overspreading the Tennessee and Kentucky. A nearly stationary surface front extending from west to east across the lower Ohio Valley provided a source for lift as warm and humid air ascended over a cool near surface layer. Light to moderate rain developed across the region early on the morning of the 15th, with rainfall getting heavier across south central Kentucky by around daybreak. This resulted in instances of flash flooding occurring across south central Kentucky during the mid-to-late morning hours. As the main surface low pressure system approached from the southwest during the afternoon on the 15th, the quasi-stationary surface front lifted into north central Kentucky, bringing a brief reprieve from rain across southern Kentucky while rainfall increased across northern Kentucky. As a broken line of storms developed ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures and dewpoint temperatures increased considerably across southern Kentucky. This allowed for enough instability for a few strong to severe storms to develop near the Tennessee border. One portion of the line of storms produced a brief tornado over Simpson County, while other reports of wind damage and hail were received from Warren, Logan, and Monroe County. Still, heavy rainfall was the predominant impact from this system, as numerous instances of flooding and flash flooding were observed across Kentucky, and river flooding would occur over the following week. February 17th, one person drove into flood water and drown in Ohio County. Precipitation ended as a band of light to moderate snow on the morning of the 16th, producing accumulations of 1 to 3 inches before ending.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:52 AM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Rare High Risk for excessive rainfall across portions of central
Kentucky today.
* Heavy rain this morning through early Sunday will likely lead to
widespread areal, river, and isolated flash flooding. A Flood
Watch is in effect for central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
* Windy, raw day on Sunday with falling temperatures and patchy
light rain changing to snow. Little to no accumulation expected.
* Rapidly falling temperatures into the teens could cause lingering
wet surfaces to freeze Sunday night. Black ice may be possible
for the Monday morning commute.
* Another system is expected to bring snow on Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
* Once the cold weather moves in on Sunday, it will remain in the
region for much of the rest of the month. Low temperatures each
morning next week (starting Monday morning) will be in the teens
for many locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
.High Risk for Excessive Rainfall Today...
A rare High Risk for excessive rainfall is outlooked across portions
of western and central Kentucky, as a significant rainfall event is
about to unfold today and tonight. Confidence remains high for this
to be a very impactful heavy rain and flooding event for the area,
with potential for life-threatening river and flash flooding. In
addition to the hydro concerns, there is also a Marginal Risk for
severe weather for tonight. We'll break down the details below.
===== Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Concerns =====
Early morning rain shower activity is moving in before sunrise,
which is being driven by a weak stationary sfc boundary and WAA due
to a strengthening LLJ out ahead of the parent shortwave trough.
Regional VAD wind profiles show 50-55kts already over the area and
around 2-3k ft. As the core of the LLJ pivots across the area today,
we'll see IVT ramp up significantly, along with PWAT values surging
to 1.3" or higher. Based on sounding climatology, our PWATs will
likely be near or exceed the daily max values in the sounding
database.
The responsible sfc low for this wave will track across the central
US today, with the stationary sfc boundary holding for much of the
day, until a warm front surges northward by the evening. Isentropic
ascent will ramp up precip production, with widespread rain expected
by the mid-morning time frame. By 18z, the hi-res CAMs have fairly
good agreement on a southwest to northeast axis of precip across the
area as the warm front begins to arrive from our south. This will
set up the corridor for training heavy rain and possible embedded
thunderstorms across much of central Kentucky.
Guidance has good agreement on QPF with the axis of heaviest
rainfall. There has been a slight southward shift with the data
overnight, but model consensus continues to highlight a broad 2-5+
inches of rain, with a narrow corridor of potentially higher
amounts, as evident by the 00z HREF LPMM, which generally follows
the BG/WKY Parkways. Some isolated locations could see 5-7 inches of
rainfall, but confidence on higher end amounts is the biggest
uncertainty. Given the current ground saturation, and higher river
levels, this considerable amount of rainfall will lead to river
flooding and areal flooding issues. If convection or higher than
anticipated rainfall rates develop, flash flooding could also
develop. The Hydrologic Discussion below goes into more details
regarding flooding concerns.
===== Marginal Risk for Severe Weather =====
As the sfc low approaches the area tonight, we will get the warm
front lifting northward, which opens the door to warm sector
instability to pose a low end risk for severe storms. The threat is
greatest across south-central Kentucky, but the hi-res CAMs have
been agreeing on a QLCS-type line of convection along the front to
pass through the area overnight. Model soundings continue to show
any instability as elevated thanks to a subtle sfc inversion.
However, the sfc low track enhances our shear ahead of the front,
which outputs eye-catching hodographs favorable for tornadoes. The
instability will be the biggest question for tonight, but the shear
will certainly be in place for strong to severe storms to develop
along the line if we can realize any sfc-based destabilization.
Any convection tonight will be right along the front. We should see
this line exiting our area between 06-09z tonight, with sfc winds
veering to a CAA NW flow behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
Sunday - Sunday Night...
The strengthening surface low will move from eastern Ohio quickly
northeastward to New England by Sunday evening. The cold front will
finish progression through our area by mid morning with a gusty WNW
wind taking hold thereafter. Lapse rates quickly steepen, with a
mixed BL up into a 30 to 35 knot layer. As a result, expect to see
some gusts in the 30 to 40 mph through Sunday. Some low 40 mph winds
can't be ruled out, and may even have to consider a Wind Advisory if
they look to get too widespread. Overall, going to be a pretty raw
day with temperatures struggling in the 30s under cold advection.
Wind chills will be in the 20s.
Did also want to mention that soundings take on a snow shower look
through Sunday as lingering low level moisture combines with
steepening low level lapse rates. Doubt we'll see much accum given
snow falling on mild/wet surfaces. That being said, some brief
rooftop dustings seem reasonable to expect. There remains concern
for some black ice issues going into Monday morning as temperatures
drop into the mid teens and low 20s, and many lingering wet road
surfaces will likely freeze.
Monday...
Do expect quiet weather on Monday, with strong high pressure in
place. Cold temps will be the theme with highs only in the upper 20s
and 30s after a slow start and continued cold advection.
Monday Night - Thursday...
Am anomalous closed low looks to dig across the northern Plains by
mid week, and a weak clipper system ahead of that feature may impact
our area as early as Tuesday morning into the day across or northern
CWA. This first wave of snowfall wouldn't be a big deal, but could
yield some light accumulations.
A secondary shot of snow, and potentially more impactful, would then
be possible for the Wednesday into Thursday time frame as some
phasing possibly occurs between the polar and subtropical jets. An
early phase would draw more of the northern moisture plume into our
area, while a later phase would be just a glancing blow or a
complete miss to the southeast. For the moment, it does look like
some accumulations are a reasonable bet for that time frame, and
we'll have to wait for the details to work themselves out with the
phase.
Higher confidence in cold temps continues as lows each night will
mostly be in the teens to low 20s, and highs mostly in the upper 20s
and low 30s. Wednesday night/Thursday looks really cold with lows in
the upper single digits and teens, and highs the following day only
in the upper teens and low 20s
Thursday Night - Friday...
Reasonable confidence for a drier signal to end the work week as
Arctic high pressure settles back of the area. After lows in the
single digits Thursday night, highs on Friday are only expected to
be in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
Moderate to heavy rain is already spreading across the area this
morning, leading to the terminals to be impacted by lower cigs and
vis. Mostly MVFR flights categories right now, but do expect
continued deterioration of conditions over the next few hours. IFR
or LIFR conditions are expected at every terminal as widespread rain
blankets the entire region today. LLJ strengthens over the area,
leading to periods of LLWS mainly for BWG/LEX/RGA. There is also a
chance for storms this evening and tonight mainly for BWG, but not
confident enough to include in TAF at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
2.50-5.00 inches of rain is forecast to fall across southern Indiana
and central Kentucky between today and Sunday morning. There has
been a slight southward shift of the heaviest rainfall axis compared
to yesterday, but still expecting the corridor of heaviest rainfall
to be across portions of western and central Kentucky and south of
the Ohio River.
Forecast Precipitation Feb 15 Record
Louisville 3.70" 3.66" in 1990
Lexington 4.34" 2.80" in 1989
Bowling Green 4.57" 1.74" in 1995
Lexington's all-time calendar day February precipitation amount is
3.10" set February 13, 1989.
With already saturated soils, and area rivers and streams continuing
to run high, this rain will make areal flood and river flood threats
increase. A Flood Watch is in effect for central Kentucky and
southern Indiana.
The river basins that stand the biggest threat of widespread minor
flooding are the Ohio, Green, Rough, Rolling Fork, Kentucky, and
Licking. In coordination with the Ohio River Forecast Center, there
are 18 river forecast points that are currently forecast to reach
flood levels in the coming days. A High Risk (level 4 of 4) for
excessive rainfall is outlooked for western and central Kentucky. A
Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall has been
outlooked for southern IN and east-central and north-central
Kentucky by the Weather Prediction Center.
Stay up to date of the latest forecasts during this active and
impactful stretch of weather.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
&&
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP
HYDROLOGY...CJPHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 405 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-160915- Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry- Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson- Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin- Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon- Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion- Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey- Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair- Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- 405 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 /305 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. A Flood Watch continues for today through midday Sunday. A large storm system is expected to drench the region with widespread 3 to 5" of rain across southern IN and central KY. Isolated higher amounts over 5" also possible. This rain will lead to concerns for considerable areal and river flooding, as well as flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Windy, raw day on Sunday with falling temperatures and patchy light rain changing to snow. Little to no accumulation expected. Winds gusts of 35-40 mph are expected on Sunday. Temperatures fall into the teens Sunday night, so lingering wet spots may freeze. Black ice may be a concern for the Monday morning commute. Snow accumulations will be possible Tuesday night-Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to report instances of heavy rain and flooding tomorrow. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. CJP
The Nashville radar (KOHX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:49 UTC.
27 flash flood, 2 flood, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A vehicle was stuck sideways in water at Hatter and Russellville Roads. Fire and law enforcement responded to the scene.
Numerous roads were impassable across Allen County due to flash flooding.
Multiple roads in Cumberland County were closed as a result of flash flooding.
A swift water rescue was needed for a vehicle caught in flood waters near Mud River.
Multiple roads were reported as closed across Simpson County due to flash flooding and high water.
Multiple county and state roads were closed across Monroe County due to flash flooding and high water.
Numerous road closures were reported across Adair County as a result of flash flooding and high water.
Three water rescues took place across Casey County.
A vehicle on Jackson Bridge Road was submerged in water up to the windshield.
A vehicle attempted to drive through and stalled in flood waters on Browning Road near Tommy Smith Road.
A car was stranded in flood waters near the intersection of Bethel Church Road and US Route 62.
A vehicle was stranded on the 4000 block of Kentucky Route 69.
Flood waters submerged portions of US Route 31W on the north side of Franklin.
A 79 year old woman left the roadway on the 3300 block of Tick Creek Road and drown in a creek that would have normally had less water in it. Damage to the vehicle is unknown.
At approximately 8 PM, a 63 year old male was driving on Gilead Church Road when he drove into water over the roadway. He left his vehicle and drown. His body was found a short distance from his vehicle. The value of damage to the vehicle is unknown.
On February 17, a man was found deceased in his truck off of Davis Road, near Sadieville. It is believed by the coroner's office that the man's truck was washed off the road and into a ravine by floodwater late on February 15, but the exact time is unknown. Value and damage to vehicle is unknown.
Numerous instances of street flooding occurred in Beaver Dam.
A woman called 911 after attempting to cross a flooded bridge AT 1900 Campground Road and water began to enter the vehicle. When the Bonnieville Fire Department arrived, they noticed a car partially submerged in high water. They noticed and extradited the driver's daughter from the car, but due to rising water couldn't get extradite the driver until the next day. Both occupants drowned.
Water was flowing over the 9200 block of Ash Avenue.
The National Weather Service in Louisville confirmed an|EF1 tornado in Simpson County, approximately 6 miles west of|Franklin.
The tornado touched down on a large farm at 2495 Neosheo|Prices Mill Road, destroying an older garage. Sheet metal from|the garage was thrown in the trees and wrapped around branches|near the farmhouse. More metal sheeting was thrown several|hundred yards from the north northeast to the easterly direction.|Some cardboard boxes and lawn furniture near the destroyed|garage did not move. Winds were 90 mph, EF1, with a width of|75 yards. There was very sporadic tree damage along Neosheo|Prices Mill Road.
Near the intersection of Sulphur Spring Church Road and Forshee |Road there were three barns with substantial roof damage. The |largest barn, approximately 50 feet by 70 feet, had its wood |anchors lifted out and pushed to the north northwest. All the |metal sheeting from the three barns was thrown from a few hundred |yards, to as far away as one quarter of a mile to the east |northeast, wrapping around fences and trees. Winds were 90 mph, EF1,|with a width of 120 yards.
There were dozens of topped trees along Sulphur Spring Creek and Neosheo|Road. Winds were 87 mph, EF1, with a width of 100 yards. Drone |photography showed trees damaged off to the east along farm land.
The most substantial damage was at 1600 Harris School Road where a horse|arena at Sundown Stables was thrown into a large barn housing the|horses. The barn took considerable side and structural roofing|damage. Some of the boards and other debris hit a concrete house|where relatives were staying. Fortunately no people or farm|animals were injured. Surprisingly, there was less tree damage|near the barn and house. Winds were 90 mph, EF1, with a width of|90 yards. The tornado lifted about 100 yards east of Harris|School Road.
A concentrated area of damage was observed along a quarter mile stretch of Scottsville Road near Alvaton. One power pole was damaged, a few cedar trees lost limbs, a restaurant sign was damaged, and an electrical riser was torn off of a home by a damaged tree.
Flash flooding was reported in and around Weldon Peete Park in Bowling Green.
Flash flooding reported near Crestwood.
A water rescue was performed on Milltown Road.
A portion of Long Lick Pike was washed out.
About one third of a barn roof was torn off by winds on Whitlow Road near Les Williams Road.
Flash flooding reported along Sportsman Lake Road.
Water was rushing over a bridge on Roberts Road.
Hammond Creek overflowed onto Mustang Trail and North Main Street in Lawrenceburg. The road was closed and barricades were put up.
Water was reported over West River Road.
A water rescue was needed on Gaither Station Road. Hardin County dispatch also stated over 30 road closures across the county due to flash flooding and high water.
In the early morning hours, a man was driving to work on Parks Ridge Road when he drove into water over the roadway. Rough River which bends near and under Parks Ridge Road was flooded at the time. One of his windows was half way down, and another, in the back on the right side of the vehicle, was all the way down. Investigators believe the man exited the vehicle out the open back window. The car and man were found separately on opposite banks three days later in flood waters. The exact time of the incident is unknown, but reporting made reference to it still being dark at the time.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Washington | 2025-02-15 | 79 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Hardin | 2025-02-15 | 63 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Scott | 2025-02-15 | 65 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Hart | 2025-02-15 | 7 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Hart | 2025-02-15 | 35 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flood, Ohio | 2025-02-17 | 44 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kentucky, 2025Warnings in Kentucky, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1236385, 1237989, 1238011, 1236386, 1237990, 1237992, 1237991, 1238024, 1236387, 1236388, 1236389, 1236390, 1238006, 1287292, 1287244, 1287236, 1238004, 1236440, 1236394, 1236847, 1238248, 1238288, 1238003, 1238002, 1236398, 1238001, 1238290, 1238000, 1236451, 1238021, 1238014, 1237995, 1256801.