A deep upper level trough was observed exiting the southern Rockies during the morning of February 15th, with southwesterly windflow ahead of the trough allowing for a fetch of deep moisture from the western Gulf of America. 2 inches by early afternoon, which would be around 2 standard deviations above normal for mid-February.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A deep upper level trough was observed exiting the southern Rockies during the morning of February 15th, with southwesterly windflow ahead of the trough allowing for a fetch of deep moisture from the western Gulf of America. This moisture pooled along a warm front situated across from Kentucky into southwest Virginia, where precipitable water values increased from 0.6 to 0.7 inches at 7 am that morning, to around 1.1 to 1.2 inches by early afternoon, which would be around 2 standard deviations above normal for mid-February. While the warm front shifted northward to the west of the Appalachians, high pressure off the Atlantic coast that was wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians delayed the northward progress of the warm front. As such, the front remained stationary, and provided the focus for training of bands of heavy rain that fell across southwest Virginia through much of the day on February 15th. The rain fell at rates of 0.3 to 0.5 per hour beginning at around 9 am EST in the morning, which persisted for a 9-10 hour period. Rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 3 inches across southwest Virginia during this period. Soils across the area were nearly saturated from 2 rounds of widespread precipitation that fell earlier in the month. Additionally, the rain was falling over ground that was partially frozen, and covered in snow and ice from a winter storm that impacted southwest and central Virginia a few days earlier, increasing the rapid runoff potential into the creeks and rivers. In this event, CREST Unit Streamflow did not show impressive returns, while MRMS underestimated some of the precipitation totals. It was those factors combined with the high runoff potential of the rainfall that resulted in a lack of realization how quickly river levels were rising, and just how intense the flooding was becoming, even as far east as Appomattox County. CREST Hydrophobic Unit Flow proved to be a more accurate tool in this situation given the frozen ground, with returns as high as 480 cfs/m^2 across Giles County, which is where some of the most intense flooding was observed. Because MRMS was underestimating rainfall amounts, both the FLASH ARI and QPE/FFG values were also significantly underestimated. In these situation, monitoring ground-truth precipitation totals from a network of private weather stations might have prompted Flash Flood Warnings to be issued sooner.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 9:58 AM EST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
958 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large storm system over the central United States will spread
rain and freezing rain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic today.
Rain and possibly thunderstorms are possible tonight and Sunday
increasing the threat of flooding. Windy conditions arrive
Sunday afternoon, with much colder conditions Sunday night
and monday as the vigorous storm system moves across New
England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EST Saturday
Key message:
1) Winter Weather Advisory today for freezing rain along the
Blue Ridge and into the WV/VA Highlands.
2) Flood Watch for potential flooding from excessive rainfall
and snowmelt through Sunday along and west of the Blue Ridge.
3) High Wind Watch Sunday for the mountains and foothills.
Leading edge of rain had advanced to a Lewisburg to Roanoke to
Martinsville line. Still seeing a large numbers of
observations with temperatures at or just below 32 degrees,
especially along and on either side of the Blue Ridge. As the
rain begins dew points were rising quickly into the upper 20s
and temperatures were dropping at a much slower rate.
Have adjusted the location of freezing rain based on current and
forecast temperature trends. No changes planned to Winter
Weather Advisories at this time.
Previous Discussion
As of 430 AM EST Saturday
Mid-CONUS winter storm will intensify as it moves into the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region today. We are on the warm side of
the system so not expecting any snow today, but we are flirting
with the freezing mark in a few areas which may promote some
light icing as the rain begins later this morning.
Models are forecasting a corridor of strong isentropic lift
(warm front) to become aligned west to east along the Hwy460/I64
corridors this afternoon promoting moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall...6hr QFP of close to one inch from Bluefield and
Lewisburg to near Lexington and Amherst, VA. This will be the
area to watch for potential flooding this afternoon as snowmelt
may also contribute to the runoff in addition to the rain. South
of the warm front, the precipitation should be lighter in
nature but still leading to the need for an umbrella or frogg
toggs.
Temperatures today will struggle to rise, a result of a
wedge of cold air trapped near the surface. Readings this
morning were in the lower 30s, but should go through a limited
rise today with highs in the upper 30s this afternoon. Exception
will be the west side of the Appalachian Divide where warm air
advection and lack of a wedge will allow for much warmer
temperatures there...close to 60 in Bristol. The highest
elevations of the NC high country may also experience a boost
from warming aloft yielding readings in the 40s this afternoon.
Tonight, the warm front is expected to move north closer to the
Mason-Dixon, which should lead to a lull in the rain activity
over our region...temperatures steady or rising through the
night.
I mention the HIGH WIND WATCH in the Key Points of the near
term discussion so that it does not go unnoticed and we get the
word out to everyone that is going through the clean-up process
and power restoration of the recent ice storm. There are a lot
of hanging hazards out there...damaged tree limbs that are left
hanging over buildings, sidewalks, highways that can easily be
dislodged from the winds that are expected in the wake of this
weekends storm. It is super important to identify these hazards
and either mitigate them today or make a mental note to avoid
them altogether as we transition into windy days Sunday and
Monday. The ground is also super moist and with the rain
expected today and tonight will make it much easier for trees to
be uprooted even with the modest of wind speeds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) A Flood Watch remains in effect for the western part of our area
through Sunday evening as heavy rain moves through.
2) Winds will be elevated Sunday night into Monday with strong
northwest flow behind the front, causing very cold wind chills
Monday morning.
3) Snow showers expected Sunday night into Monday for the western
upslope areas.
Sunday morning will be active as the main cold front from the system
in the Ohio Valley will move through the area. A line of heavy
showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms for the piedmont will
quickly move through by early afternoon. High rainfall rates will
cause some flash flooding concerns, especially for our counties in
West Virginia. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
across our area for Sunday. Total rainfall expected is around an
inch on Sunday, with possible higher amounts northwest of I-81.
Showers will linger behind the front into the evening as the upper-
level trough moves through. Strong northwest flow will move in
behind the front as the pressure gradient remains tight over the
area. Winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 40-50+ mph are expected in the
higher elevations. With elevated northwest winds, snow showers will
be possible for the western slopes Sunday night, with flurries
possible as far east as the Blue Ridge. Snow totals will be minimal
at lower elevations, with flurries to a dusting possible. The NC/VA
mountains into West Virginia may see 1-2"+ while western Greenbrier
County in WV has trended up in snow totals and could see around 3-
5".
Winds begin to lessen Monday morning as the low moves further away
from the area, which will end any remaining snow showers. By Monday
morning, high pressure over the Midwest begins to ridge into the
area. Dry and quiet weather is expected to continue for Monday and
Tuesday, though temperatures will remain well below average.
Speaking of temperatures, Sunday will see a warm day, as strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the front will cause high temperatures
to rise into the 50s/60s. Mid to upper 60s may be possible for the
eastern piedmont before the frontal passage. Much colder air behind
the front will keep highs in the 30s/40s for the early week. With
strong winds and colder temperatures, wind chills will be quite low
Monday morning. Below zero wind chills are increasingly likely for
the highest elevations west of the Blue Ridge, with 5 to 10 below
possible in western Greenbrier County. Single digits will be
along/west of the Blue Ridge at lower elevations while the piedmont
will have wind chills in the teens. Low temperatures remain
consistent through the period, with teens/20s behind the front for
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) A midweek storm system is increasingly likely to bring wintry
weather back into the area.
2) Well below average temperatures continue through the period.
The quiet weather for the early week comes to an end by midweek, as
yet another winter storm approaches the area. Models have come into
a good general agreement for a low pressure system to develop along
the Gulf Coast and swing up somewhere near the East Coast and head
into the Northeast late next week. The exact track is still
uncertain and will play a vital role into how much precipitation
falls across the area. P-type currently looks to be mostly snow,
with some mixing to the south and east. Models also agree on timing
of the system, with the first snow flakes arriving Wednesday
morning. The most intense snow looks to occur Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.
Models differ in two main areas with the system: the first being the
track of the low. The ECMWF has the system hugging the coast, which
will keep heavier precipitation over our CWA, while the GFS has the
storm slightly further offshore, meaning less precipitation for our
area. The track difference is only around 100 miles, but will
determine where the heaviest band of snow and/or mixed precipitation
sets up. The other main difference is that the Euro has a much
stronger, deeper upper-level trough compared to the GFS, which would
also support heavier precipitation. Until the models can come into
better agreement on these differences, confidence in precipitation
totals remains low. However, confidence is increasing that an
impactful winter storm will impact the area for the middle of next
week.
The system moves out of the area by midday Thursday, with lingering
upslope snow showers expected on the western mountain faces through
Friday morning. Quiet weather then returns for the late week into
next weekend with high pressure controlling the pattern across the
area.
Temperatures continue to remain well below average, with highs in
the 20s/30s each day. Morning lows will be in the teens/20s midweek,
but by Friday will fall into the single digits west of the Blue
Ridge with low teens for the piedmont. Teens will be expected area-
wide Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Saturday...
Mid clouds with bases 8-12kft to persist through 13Z/8AM.
Models then bring increasing low level moisture with MVFR cigs
developing between 13z/8AM-15Z/10AM. Also expecting development
of light rain or freezing rain (pending surface temperature)
late this morning and continuing through the afternoon. A layer
of low level stratus will then develop late in the day and
overnight Saturday night with potential for IFR-LIFR
conditions. Light surface winds are forecast through the 24hr
valid TAF, but they will be increasing aloft, introducing
potential for LLWS.
Models have been slowing down the arrival time of precipitation
with onset mid-late morning. Stable air near the surface will
result in development of a cold wedge along the Blue Ridge
Saturday, keeping temperatures cold enough to support freezing
rain at the onset for KLWB, KBCB, and KROA, lasting 1-4 hours.
Temperature should slowly inch above freezing later in the
afternoon with all precipitation falling as rain.
In general expecting poor flying weather from about 14z/10AM
through the end of the valid TAF. Models suggest potential for
dense fog tonight, but this will depend on whether the cold
wedge persists or if it becomes scoured by increasing warm
southerly winds. The HRRR suggests a fairly large area of LIFR
VSBY developing east of the Blue Ridge tonight and persisting
until a cold front crosses the area Sunday.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday. Deep convection
along the front will produce moderate-heavy intensity
rain with potential for embedded thunderstorms, LLWS and
moderate to severe turbulence. Timing of the front Sunday...12-16Z
for BLF/LWB/BCB and 14-18Z ROA/LYH/DAN.
Behind the front ceilings/vsbys improve east of the mountains
but windward slopes may keep sub-VFR with snow showers across
BLF/LWB into early Monday. Also west to northwest winds behind
the front Sunday could gust over 40 mph along/west of the Blue
Ridge.
Should be VFR into late Tuesday maybe even Tuesday night but
another winter storm could bring poor aviation conditions across
the mid-Atlantic/NC midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 545 AM EST Saturday...
Key Message:
-Flood Watch in effect until Sunday evening along and west of
the Blue Ridge
The Dan River at South Boston remains in minor flood but is
falling and is expected to drop below flood stage this morning.
A river flood warning remains out for the Greenbrier River at
Alderson, where 1 to 2 inches of rain at or upstream looks to
bring it to minor flood on Sunday.
Snow melt will also contribute to runoff. Snow remains on the
ground over portions of southeast WV into the Alleghanys and
southern Shenandoah Valley. With the ground saturated, the
runoff efficiency in these areas will be high.
The upcoming rain event is expected to come in two time periods.
The first occurring with the warm front today. The second coming
with the cold front passage Sunday. Don't get caught off guard.
In spite of a lull in rain activity forecast early tonight, the
second wave of rain with the cold front Sunday may tip the
scales with respect to flash flooding. A line of showers with
potential for embedded thunderstorms associated with the cold
front may result in a short duration burst of rain that could
lead to flash flooding Sunday.
At the very least, those near small streams and rivers should
prepare for potential flooding. Small streams and creeks will
rise very quickly when the ground is saturated. Rivers will
respond a little slower (lag time) but can rise just as rapidly
if thunderstorms with heavy rain enter the equation.
The Greenbrier, Upper James, and upper Clinch river valleys are
especially susceptible to river flooding due to the wet
antecedent conditions and headwater higher elevation snow pack.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
035.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ011-
013>020-022>024-032>035.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ001-002-018.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
NCZ001>003-018-019.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ042>044-507-508.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ043-
044-507-508.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...PMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 NCZ003-019-161245- Surry-Wilkes- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina and northwest North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ011-013>020-022>024-035-WVZ043-044-507-508-161245- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Amherst- Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. High Wind Watch. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area. NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-161245- Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ010-012-WVZ042-161245- Bland-Wythe-Mercer- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. High Wind Watch. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area. VAZ032>034-161245- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area. VAZ007-009-161245- Tazewell-Smyth- 731 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Blustery conditions with much colder air comes in for Sunday night and Monday. Another winter storm system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
17 flood, 17 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Stroubles Creek was observed overflowing its banks into a nearby field and across portions of Stroubles Creek Road a few inches deep. The road was passible to traffic.
Numerous roads were reported flooded and impassible throughout the Town of Richlands due to flash flooding. This includes Ravens Nest Branch Road and Laurel Road due to flash flooding of Laurel Branch. Burnette Street near the intersection with Cliff Street was also observed flooded and impassible as a tributary of the Clinch River rose out of its banks. Near Cedar Bluff, portions of Bane Bottom Road were flooded by flooding of Indian Creek, with water approaching homes along the road.
Multiple creeks in and around the town of Saltville and across the northern half of Smyth County were observed overflowing their banks across nearby roads, causing them to become impassible. Possum Hollow Road was reported flooded as Beaver Creek rose out of its banks. Glade Branch was observed overflowing its banks several inches deep across Citizens Road, causing the road to be impassible until the flooding receded. No damage was reported to the road, which was reopened to traffic after the flooding receded. Social Media video indicates that the Well Fields in the town of Saltville flooded out of their banks across Palmer Avenue nearly a foot deep in spots. The parking lot of Food Country and Subway was also flooded by the Well Fields.
Numerous creeks and streams throughout the county were observed flowing out of their banks and onto nearby roads or over bridges. Roads that were flooded and impassible include Annie Akers Road, Lowman's Ferry Road, Gill Lane, Highland Road, Parrott River Road, Old Route 100, Fairlawn Road, Cox Hollow Road, Pond Lick Hollow Road, Buena Vista Road, Hilton Village Loop, Little Creek Road and Cleburne Boulevard. A trained Skywarn Spotter reported that Brookmont Road was flooded as Tract Fork rose out of its banks. WDBJ7 reported that several private bridges over creeks throughout the county that provide access to homes were heavily damaged or destroyed during the flooding.
Numerous creeks and streams were reported flooded out of their banks and across several roads throughout the county, making them impassible until the flood waters receded.
Several roads were reported flooded and impassible in the area surrounding Roanoke College.
A vehicle with a single occupant was pushed off of Kimberling Road into deeper water as Kimberling Creek flooded at least 2 feet over the roadway. The occupant attempted to abandon the vehicle, but was swept away by the flooding and passed away. Nearby, Wesendonck Road was observed flooded and impassible at several locations due to multiple creeks overflowing their banks. This includes Nobusiness Creek.
Brookside Park was reported flooded as Carvin Creek rose out of its banks. Property damage was the estimated cost of clearing debris out of the park once the flooding receded.
The Clinch River at Richlands, VA (RLRV2), crested at the Major Flood Stage (16.0 feet) of 16.09 feet at 11:30 pm EST on the 15th above the Minor Flood Stage of 10.0 feet. This is tied for the 4th-highest crest of all-time (Records dating back at least to 1901), and about the highest crest at this gage since 1978. The flooding was the result of between 2.75 to 3.25 inches of rain falling across the entire headwaters during a 9 hour period due to training heavy showers/storms. This event is about a 25-year event (4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats. Significant flooding was observed across town, with water entering many businesses and residences. As the river rose, multiple properties became inundated along Edgewater Drive near the gage. Water entered homes along E 1st and 2nd Streets on the east side of town. Water also surrounded homes on Orange and Jewell Streets, though it is unclear if water did enter any of the homes. Significant inundation occurred along Alleghany and Road and 4th Street, with multiple businesses along Front Street taking in at least 1 foot of water. Flooding of the river was also observed at the Richlands Tabernacle Church near the intersection of 4th Street and Rockbridge Street. Multiple motor homes around Page and Allen Streets were surrounded by at least 1.5 feet of water, though it did not appear that water entered any of the residences. In the Raven area, water surrounded several homes on Kirby Road, Atmore Street and Bottom Road, though there were no reports of the water actually entering the homes. If true, this would be about as high as water could rise without doing so. Water crested on Kirby Road next to the Doran Grocery Store before receding again. The elementary school at the end of Bottom Road was surrounded by water. Water advanced across York and Daw Roads off of Bottom Road as well. The National Guard was brought in during the flooding to help people evacuate, with at least 51 people assisted from their homes by swift water rescue teams.
Spring Branch was observed overflowing its banks at several locations, and was flowing several inches deep across multiple roads in the Shawsville community. No damage was reported to the roads, which were open to traffic after the flooding receded.
Den Hill Creek was observed overflowing its banks several inches deep across Den Hill Road at multiple locations, making the road impassible. No damage was reported to the road, which was open to traffic after the flooding receded, though large pieces of debris needed to be cleaned off the road. Property damage is the estimated cost of the cleanup of the road.
The Bluestone River at Falls Mills, VA (BRVV2), crested at the Moderate Flood Stage (9.0 feet) of 9.96 feet (1,337 cfs) at 22:30 EST on the 15th above the Minor Flood Stage of 7.0 feet. The flooding was the result of between 2.75 and 3 inches of rain falling in a roughly 9-hour period from around 9 am to 6 pm on the 15th. This event is a 10-year and a 25-year event (10%-4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
Peak Creek at Pulaski, VA (PCRV2), crested at 9.74 feet at 19:00 EST on the 15th above the Minor Flood Stage of 8.0 feet. The flooding was the result of between 2.25 and 2.5 inches of rain falling in a roughly 9-hour period from around 9 am to 6 pm on the 15th. The creek was reported flowing out of its banks and across portions of Dora Highway. The creek was also observed rising out of its banks in the center of town, flowing across Main Street and Walnut Street. No damage was reported though cleanup costs are estimated and included in the property damage.
The Roanoke River at Lafayette, VA (LAAV2) crested at 11.36 feet (11,800 cfs) at 9:40 am EST on the 15th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 11 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 8 feet). This was caused by between 2.5 and 2.75 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Modest snowmelt was a factor given the 2 to locally 4 inches of snow and ice that fell across the basin 2-3 days prior. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since the flooding associated with remnants of Hurricane Michael in October 2018, and the 12th highest documented crest since 1944. This event is between a 5-year and a 10-year flood (20%-10% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
Blocked culverts resulted in several inches of standing water at the intersection of Candlers Mountain Road and Sunnymeade Road. No damage was reported to the intersection.
Timber Lake was reported flooded, with water reaching up into several properties along the lakeshore, as well as the intersection of Timberlake Drive and Grove Road. No damage was reported.
The backyard of a property located roughly 0.5 miles north of the intersection of Stoney Fork Road and Black Lick Road was shown completely submerged by floodwater. It is unknown if there was any damage due to the flooding.
The Roanoke River at Glenvar, VA (GNVV2) crested at 15.26 feet (15,359 cfs) at 12:15 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 14 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 9 feet). This was caused by between 2.5 and 2.75 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Modest snowmelt was a factor given the 2 to locally 4 inches of snow and ice that fell across the basin 2-3 days prior. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since the flooding associated with remnants of Hurricane Michael in October 2018, and the 8th highest documented crest since 1992. This event is between a 5-year and a 10-year flood (20%-10% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats. Flooding of the river closed portions of both Mill Lane and Riverside Road. Residents of Salem Village Mobile Home Park and Ramey’s Mobile Home Park voluntarily evacuated due to flooding in several areas in Salem, according to Salem Fire & EMS.
The Bluestone River was observed overflowing its banks and flooded across portions of both Meredith Street and Tazewell Avenue.
Plum Creek was observed overflowing its banks, and was flowing several inches deep across Plum Creek Road, as well as within several nearby properties. No damage was reported, with Plum Creek Road open to traffic after the flooding receded. Property damage is the estimated cost of cleanup of the nearby properties.
The North Fork Roanoke River was observed overflowing its banks at several locations, and began flowing up to 2 feet deep across fields and properties along Catawba Road and Lusters Gate Road. Clubhouse Road was also flooded and impassible until the water receded. No damage was reported to the roads, which were open to traffic after the flooding receded.
Spruce Run was observed overflowing its banks, and was flowing several inches deep across Spruce Run Road. No damage was reported to the road, which was open to traffic after the flooding receded.
Tom's creek was observed rising rapidly out of its banks at multiple locations. Water was observed flowing across Coal Bank Hollow Road near Highway 460, and flooded the nearby Montgomery County Waste Site, causing damage to one of the service buildings located there. Further downstream, water was also observed flowing across Tom's Creek Road several inches deep.
Horners Branch was observed flowing out of its banks up to 3 feet deep across Main Street in the City of Salem. Multiple cars were reported stalled in the floodwaters.
North Creek was observed overflowing its banks and inundating North Creek Road several inches deep. No damage was reported to the roadway, which was open to traffic after the flooding receded.
Archer Creek was observed overflowing its banks about 1 foot deep across Stage Road, making the road impassible. No damage was reported to the road, which was open to traffic after the flooding receded, though pictures indicate that the road was covered in debris. Property damage is the estimated cost of clearing the debris from the road to make it passible.
Little Opossum Creek was observed overflowing its banks and inundating Holcomb Path Road several inches deep. No damage was reported to the roadway, which was open to traffic after the flooding receded.
The Roanoke River at Roanoke, VA (RONV2) crested at 14.26 feet (14,343 cfs) at 1:40 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 12 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 10 feet). This was caused by between 2.5 and 2.75 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Modest snowmelt was a factor given the 2 to locally 4 inches of snow and ice that fell across the upper portion of the basin 2-3 days prior. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since May 2020, and the 13th highest documented crest since 1944. This event is nearly a 5-year flood (20% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
Wolf Creek near Narrow, VA (WOLV2) crested at 12.85 feet (12,547 cfs) at 1:15 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 12 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 10 feet). This was caused by between 2.5 and 2.75 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Modest snowmelt was a factor given the 2 to locally 4 inches of snow and ice that fell across the basin 2-3 days prior. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since March 2010, and the 5th highest documented crest since 1909. This event is about a 25-year flood (4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats. One of the biggest noted impacts was the significant number of basements of homes that were flooded and needed to be pumped dry in the Narrows area. One water rescue was reported along the 4300 block of Wolf Creek Road as water from Wolf Creek surrounded the home.
Dunlap Creek at near Covington, VA (DLPV2), crested at 11.10 feet (8,209 cfs) at 2:15 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood stage of 11.0 feet. The flooding was the result of between 1.5 and 2.25 inches of rain falling across the basin in about 10 hours ending at 7:30 pm on the 15th. This is the 10th highest documented crest for this gage with records dating back at least to 1929, and is the highest crest of this gage since June 2016. This event is nearly a 5-year flood (20% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
Walker Creek at Bane, VA (BANV2) crested at 15.31 feet (16,065 cfs) at 3:30 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 14 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 11 feet). This was caused by between 2.25 and 2.5 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Modest snowmelt was a factor given the 2 to locally 4 inches of snow and ice that fell across the basin 2-3 days prior. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since April 2020, and is nearly a 25-year flood (4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
North Fork Holston River at Saltville, VA (SALV2) crested at 12.86 feet (13,283 cfs) at 2:30 am EST on the 16th above the Moderate Flood Stage of 12 feet (Minor Flood Stage is 10 feet). This was caused by between 2.25 and 3 inches of rain falling over a 9 hour period ending at around 7:00 pm on the 15th. Soils were partially frozen and saturated from recent heavy precipitation, and stream levels were already running high given rounds of heavy precipitation earlier in the month. This is the highest crest of this gage since April 1977, and the 7th-highest documented crest since 1907. This event is between a 10-year and a 25-year flood (10%-4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats. Around 10 homes were evacuated near the river in the town of Saltville as a precaution, though there were no reports that the river water entered any homes.
Reed Creek at Grahams Forge, VA (GRHV2), crested at 7.80 feet (9,528 cfs) at 7:15 am EST on the 16th above the Minor Flood stage of 6.5 feet. The flooding was the result of between 1.75 and 2.25 inches of rain falling across the Reed Creek basin in about 9 hours ending at 7:00 pm on the 15th. This is the 5th highest documented crest for this gage with records dating back to 1909, and is the highest crest of this gage since 2002. This event is between a 10-year and a 25-year flood (10%-4% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
Potts Creek near Covington, VA (PTCV2), crested at 9.67 feet (6,971 cfs) at 7:15 am EST on the 16th above the Minor Flood Stage of 9.0 feet. The flooding was the result of between 1.50 and 2.75 inches of rain falling in a roughly 10-hour period from around 9 am to 7 pm on the 15th. This is the highest crest of this gage since the flood of June 2016, and is tied for 12th highest documented crest since 1929. This event is between a 5-year flood and a 10-year flood (20%-10% Annual Exceedance Probability) per USGS StreamStats.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Bland | 2025-02-15 | 74 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1239874, 1238434, 1239977, 1239979, 1239985, 1238430, 1231242, 1239986, 1227987, 1238423, 1238426, 1227982, 1230240, 1232711, 1239909, 1239916, 1239983, 1232720, 1238433, 1238424, 1238425, 1239984, 1229850, 1238429, 1239886, 1239895, 1239905, 1232754, 1228440, 1232441, 1228448, 1230247, 1230238, 1234541.