An upper-level trough crossed the Four Corners region and dipped into northern Mexico on February 14, 2025. In response, deep southwesterly flow set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley and advected Gulf moisture poleward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper-level trough crossed the Four Corners region and dipped into northern Mexico on February 14, 2025. In response, deep southwesterly flow set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley and advected Gulf moisture poleward. Showers and thunderstorms blossomed across the region during the early morning hours on February 15, 2025. Meanwhile, a warm front quickly accelerated northward during the morning of February 15th as surface low pressure traversed the Southern Plains. The front stalled across the northern parts of the Mid-South. Heavy rainfall was focused along and north of the stalled front with 4 to 7 inches falling north of Interstate 40. Flash flooding was common across northwest Tennessee into northeast Arkansas during the day on February 15th. The event transitioned toward severe weather during the evening of February 15th as the airmass south of the warm front destabilized. The surface low tracked into north-central Arkansas and a line of severe storms developed and pushed across the Mid-South during the evening hours of February 15th exiting into Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama by midnight. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few weak tornadoes occurred. A levee overtopped and then breached in the Rives, TN area on February 16th, resulting in major flooding in the town.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:30 AM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
- Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across portions of
northwest Tennessee through late evening as 4 to 6 inches of
rain occurs. 2 to 5 inches is possible across the rest of the
Mid-South. River flooding and flash flooding are possible
across the entire Mid-South. A Flood Watch is in effect from
now through 6AM Sunday.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected for much of the
area on Saturday afternoon and evening, especially for areas
along and south of I-40. All hazards (damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, tornadoes, large hail) are possible. A strong tornado
or two (EF - 2 or greater) is possible.
- Well below normal temperatures are favored next week. Long
range models depict accumulating snow during the middle of next
week. Arctic air will move into the Mid-South for Wednesday
through Friday with single digit temperatures possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Plenty of convective activity already on radar this morning. The
most recent precipitation observations are pinging at or above 1
inch for along a WSW to ENE line from Jonesboro, AR to Dyersburg,
TN to Paris, TN. Showers and thunderstorms continue to train along
this theta-e axis at this hour, which is coincident with the
moderate and high risk areas for excessive rainfall. The flooding
threat is already ramping up and rainfall totals could approach 3
inches before sunup. A flood advisory has been issued for minor
crest unit streamflow responses.
The latest surface analysis places a 1003mb low near the Texas
Panhandle with a cold front extending southwest into southern
Utah. Another low was analyzed near Houston, TX with an attendant
warm front extending east along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Aloft, a
deepening positively-tilted longwave trough was located to the
southeast of the Four Corners region with deep southwesterly flow
over the majority of the Mississippi Valley.
The aforementioned trough will rapidly dig south into northern
Mexico and become more neutrally-tilted by 18Z this afternoon.
The Panhandle surface low will take an easterly track and push the
Gulf warm front all the way up to the I-40 corridor during the
same timeframe. The parameter space will quickly become conducive
for all modes of severe weather including damaging winds,
tornadoes (of which a couple could be strong), large hail, and
heavy rainfall. The warm sector will be characterized by moderate
instability, strong deep layer shear, and high levels of low level
helicity. MLCAPE values will range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 55
to 60 knots of 0-6 km shear, and 0-1 SRH values in near 350
m2/s2. Point soundings across the warm sector depict large
looping hodographs with low LCLs. There is enough confidence to
begin mentioning the threat of a couple of strong and potentially
long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Nearly 40
meter height falls will overspread the increasingly unstable warm
sector between 10AM and 2PM and could spawn a couple of supercells
ahead of an organizing line of convection.
By mid afternoon, the surface low will be located over north-
central Arkansas. HREF guidance is consistent with storm mode
changing from multi-cell clusters to a linear mode between 2 and
4 PM and just to the west of the Mississippi River. Once the line
congeals together, an all hazards threat will unfold as the line
sweeps eastward through late evening. Damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes are the main threat with large hail and heavy rainfall
as secondary threats. The QLCS should cross the Tennessee River
between 10 PM and midnight. Thereafter, a few trailing showers
will continue through tomorrow morning. Gusty post-frontal
northwest winds will advect in a polar airmass on Sunday. Below
normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist on Monday and
Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, a shortwave will traverse the Southern Plains
and dig ESE into the Lower Mississippi Valley. LREF guidance is
rather consistent with accumulating snow for areas along and north
of I-40. LREF probabilities for 1 inch of snowfall are now 75
percent or greater. Deterministic guidance remains divided on
totals with the ECMWF more bullish than the GFS on snowfall
totals. Nonetheless, there is a strong signal for accumulating
snow at this point.
Thereafter, the polar vortex will unleash a blast of arctic air
upon the Mid-South. NBM guidance suggests that numerous locations
could remain below freezing for 72 hours or more for Wednesday
through Saturday morning. Cold weather products look likely during
the latter part of next week as temperatures plummet into the
single digits. Winter is not over yet.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Warm air advection has allowed shower and thunderstorm activity
to encompass the airspace most of the evening. This trend will
continue as a warm front continues its northern ascent. A squall
line will take aim late this afternoon into early evening with a
cold frontal passage.
Elevated and gusty winds will persist through the day and a
wind shift is expected post frontal. Generally MVFR and IFR CIGs
will prevail through the period. Conditions can deteriorate
further with any thunderstorm activity. An AWW will likely be
needed for KMEM during FROPA. Winds will remain elevated and gusty
post frontal from the NW. MVFR conds will end out the period and
should return to MVFR tomorrow afternoon.
DNM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-
048-049-058.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-
088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNMThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:15 UTC.
23 flash flood, 11 hail, 6 thunderstorm wind, 3 flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Palestine Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Flooding over roadway stranded a motorist.
Flooded roadway resulted in a road closure.
Video footage depicted significant flooding at Johnson Park, on the northwest side of Paris.
Road closed due to flooding.
Road closed due to flooding. .
Road closed due to flooding.
Johnny Powell Road was closed due to flooding.
Several roads closed due to water over roadways across the county. Sulphur Creek Road was impassable.
Road was closed due to wash out conditions.
College street in Trenton was impassable due to flooding.
Boydsville Road near Latham Hwy 190 was completely flooded.
Several roads in Dyer County closed due to flooding. Roads included were Highway 105, Highway 104 West, Lenox Nauvoo Road at I-155, and Hogwallow Road at Jones Road.
Clifty Road was washed out between 4630 and 4709.
Miles Road between Martin and Dresden was fully inundated.
Road was inundated at the junction of Cuff and Beaverdam Roads.
Creek overflowed.
Golf ball sized hail reported on Richards Landing Road.
One tree was uprooted at a residence with minor damage observed to a surrounding outbuilding and home.
Tree blown down in Midtown.
Large road sign blown over off I-40 west bound just before the Germantown Parkway exit.
Creek overflowed out of its embankment.
An EF-2 tornado began just east of Laneview Concord Road southeast of Tuckers Corner in Gibson County around 7:01 PM CST on February 15. A tree fell on a home near the corner of Twin Creek Road and Thetford Road. The tornado continued just north of Thetford Road, causing tree damage including multiple uprooted trees and large branches snapped through a slightly wooded area. The tornado crossed Thetford Road, with additional tree damage noted. The tornado appeared to intensify as it crossed Milan Hwy (Hwy 45E), with the most severe damage occurring between Milan Hwy and Mt. Pisgah Road. Several homes were damaged in this area. Multiple homes on Mt. Pisgah Rd had large sections of their roofs removed and were surrounded by significant tree damage and debris. A barn was also destroyed and shifted off the foundation on Mt. Pisgah Rd. Damage mostly in the form of snapped and uprooted trees continued northeastward toward Idlewild Hollyleaf Rd. The tornado led to additional trees snapped along Walnut Grove Road (the last notable damage), before lifting just to the east around 7:11 PM CST. Peak wind estimated at 115 mph.
Tree downed on a shed and powerlines.
Creek overflowed out of its embankment causing some water to get into a basement.
Golf ball sized hail reported in Trenton.
Straight-line winds caused damage in the Fruitland area.
Roads closed and vehicles stranded due to flooding.
Nickel-size hail fell between Trenton and Milan.
Water over roadway.
Downed and snapped trees on the north side of Paris.
Flash flooding near the Lowe's Home Improvement in Union City.
Quarter sized hail fell in downtown Paris.
Quarter sized hail in downtown Paris.
Quarter sized hail near Highway 54 and Hathaway Road.
A section of Highway 22 between Huntingdon and McKenzie was closed due to flooding.
Public reports quarter sized hail in downtown Camden.
Roads were flooded leaving cars stranded on the west side of Camden.
Kirk Trail Rd in Holladay was closed due to washout conditions from heavy rain.
Significant flooding occurred in Rives, TN due to a levee overtopping. The entire town was flooded. All 105 homes suffered at least some damage with 60 homes suffering significant damage. Roads and culverts throughout town were damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Tennessee, 2025Warnings in Tennessee, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1236539, 1237031, 1237034, 1236540, 1237045, 1237046, 1237047, 1237043, 1237023, 1237027, 1236908, 1237020, 1237021, 1236904, 1236905, 1237019, 1236903, 1237318, 1236902, 1236842, 1236900, 1236898, 1236899, 1236897, 1236840, 1236890, 1236895, 1236696, 1236659, 1236896, 1237314, 1236894, 1237313, 1236892, 1236891, 1236889, 1236652, 1236888, 1236697, 1236901, and more.