Significant flash flooding occurred over west Kentucky, as anomalously high amounts of low-level moisture streamed northward over a warm front that became stationary along the Tennessee border. Steady rains began just after 0000CST on the 15th and continued until around 0100CST on the 16th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Significant flash flooding occurred over west Kentucky, as anomalously high amounts of low-level moisture streamed northward over a warm front that became stationary along the Tennessee border. Steady rains began just after 0000CST on the 15th and continued until around 0100CST on the 16th. The rain came in waves with the first one targeting Fulton, Murray, Fort Campbell, and Guthrie with 1-2 in the pre-dawn hours. The first flash flooding report came from Guthrie where flood waters had closed several roads and surrounded a few homes by 0430CST. By 1200CST the continuous rains had created a swath of 2-5 of rainfall over the southern half of the Purchase Area and along and south of the Interstate 69 corridor. The heavy rain (1-2) resulted in a rock slide that closed the right lane of eastbound Interstate 69 about 3 miles west of Dawson Springs in Caldwell County in the late morning. Numerous roads were impassable due to flash flooding of creeks and rivers. The South Fork of the Little River swelled to its major flood level resulting in widespread road closures in Hopkinsville. Its crest of 20.16 at the Bypass site was the third highest crest every recorded at that location. After a brief lull in the mid to late afternoon, a line of thunderstorms pushed eastward across the hardest hit areas near the Tennessee border in the evening. Small hail, up to 0.7 in diameter, was reported in Hazel, Murray, Newstead, Pembroke, and Trenton. Gusty winds up to 50 mph were reported from Earlington and Nortonville to Central City. As the heavy rain diminished in the late evening, major flooding developed along the Clarks River, flooding a firehouse and a pair of homes in Almo. The worst flooding occurred downstream in Benton, where several feet of water inundated businesses and closed numerous roads on the east and north sides of town. Two people lost their lives after their vehicles were swept away by flood waters, one in Caldwell County and the other in Graves County. There were numerous successful water rescues performed after vehicles stalled out in flood waters or were swept away. Final rainfall totals ranged from around 3 near the Ohio River to nearly 7 over much of the Jackson Purchase, including Fulton, Mayfield, Murray, and Benton, and northeast through Princeton and Central City. Daily rainfall records for the 15th were set at Paducah (4.54), Poplar Bluff (3.23), and Evansville (3.07).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 2:31 AM CST, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 231 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is possible this afternoon and tonight across portions west Kentucky and southwest Indiana and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. - Some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become severe in areas along the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two are the main threats. - Accumulating snow is looking increasingly likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall amounts could be high enough to cause travel impacts. - Dangerous, bitter cold is forecast for most of next week. Low temperatures in the single digits and subzero wind chills are forecast the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 A major, potentially historic, flash flood event is possible over parts of western Kentucky today. Adjacent parts of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri may see significant or considerable flash flooding as well. The set up is a classic one for flash flooding in our region: 1) Surface low pressure over the central Great Plains is funneling a moisture-laden Gulf airmass northward into the region; 2) A stalled warm frontal boundary that will help initiate training convection; and 3) A final push of heavy rain from thunderstorms that develop ahead of the trailing cold front. What makes this system so concerning is the residence time of 200-400% of normal PWAT values combined with a very strong 40-50 kt 850 LLJ. Both of these features interacting with the stalled warm front for potentially 12 to 18 hours today will result in several hours of 0.50-1.00"/hr rainfall rates this morning and afternoon. In fact, the heaviest rain may not fall until the end of the event this evening when thunderstorms associated with the approaching cold front arrive, when 1-2"/hr rates are possible for short window. The model guidance continues to trend upward with QPF amounts across the ongoing Flood Watch for western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, and adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Right now, we're expecting a broad brush of 2.5-5" of rain in the Flood Watch through late tonight, with a corridor of higher amounts of 5-8" somewhere in western Kentucky. The latest high- res model guidance has been keying in on a corridor of extreme rainfall amounts somewhere in the southern KY Purchase and southern KY Pennyrile, mainly along a line from Fulton to Murray to Hopkinsville to Elkton. The forecast rainfall amounts are not unheard of in our region, but they usually occur in the warm season. In warm season heavy rain events, the ground is warmer and drier, stream levels are lower, and there is vegetation to intercept rainfall before it drains to waterways. There will not be any of these mitigating factors for this event. The soil is cold and soggy; there is no vegetation to lessen runoff; area streams and river are already running high. All these factors point to the potential for a corridor of extremely dangerous and possibly historic flooding, which is most likely to set up near the KY/TN border. A relatively recent analog for this event occurred on February 28, 2021, when training thunderstorms produced a small swath of 3-7" of rain from Murry to Hopkinsville to Elkton in western KY. This produced considerable flash flooding in both Murray and Hopkinsville and prompted a Flash Flood Emergency and evacuations for Elkton in Todd County, KY. If the forecast rainfall totals pan out, we could be looking at similar impacts but across a larger area. Beyond the flooding, we will need to watch for the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening for southern parts of western Kentucky. This would mainly be with the line of thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front and will depend on if surface-based instability can advect into the region. If it does, a few mesovorticies may develop with in the main squall line, with a locally enhanced straight- line wind and spin-up tornado risk. The risk will be greatest from roughly the 22z/Sat to 06z/Sun period. As the system the departs the region, another blast of bitter Arctic air will surge into the region overnight through much of next week. Depending on how fast the cold air arrives, some of the precipitation early Sunday morning could end as snow showers with blustery NW winds. Temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday, which yields high temperatures from 25-35F and lows of 15-25F. Confidence is growing that accumulating snow will impact much of the region from the latter half of Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This will be driving by a southern-stream surface low that will pass through the Mid-South. Thermal profiles look to be cold enough for all snow, and the latest forecast as it stand shows impactful accumulations over the entire region. Don't want to get into specific numbers at this range, but the latest NBM guidance shows about 50-75% chance of the area seeing 2" of snow or more and a 25-50% chance of 4" or more. A lot can still change a few days out, but if you have travel plans during the Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM period, you may want to consider changing them. After the system exits the region, dangerous cold will surge into the area as a 1050 mb Arctic high pressure plunges southward into the Midwest. High temperatures will only reach the 15-25F range Wednesday through Friday, with overnight lows in the low single digits possible. Subzero wind chill values are likely as well. Depending on snow pack and winds, some locations could see their coldest temperatures of the winter season so far. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 502 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Flight conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight as our next weather system pushes into the FA. Restricted CIGS become commonplace before daybreak as VSBY-restricting rains develop. Further deterioration into the day tmrw is anticipated as widespread Marginal restrictions become Instrument restrictions by/during the daylight morning hours. At this writing, we kept thunder out of the terminals, as the main chance resides just south of the airport forecast radius. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ082-083-085>094. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ108>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022. && DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 337 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 337 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 /437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Considerable to potentially major flash flooding is expected today into tonight across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana as well as adjacent parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Refer to the Flood Watch for more details. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight for locations near the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two are the main risks. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Accumulating snowfall with travel impacts is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Dangerous cold is forecast for much of next week. Morning wind chill values will be near or below zero from Wednesday through Friday. Widespread river flooding will continue or is forecast to develop long parts of the Ohio and Green Rivers for the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of flooding, heavy rainfall measurements, and any damage reports from thunderstorms would be appreciated today and tonight. DWS
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 14 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:30 UTC.
39 flash flood, 31 flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding inundated roads and threatened homes in the Guthrie area.
Flood waters covered Highway 121 South near New Concord.
Minor flooding of low-lying areas occurred along the South Fork of the Little River near Highway 68/80.
Flash flooding along Brush Creek closed Highway 58 and Highway 1283 near the Hickman County line.
Flash flooding closed Highway 58 near the Graves County line.
Water covered a portion of Highway 94 between Murray and Lynn Grove.
Flood waters from Mayfield Creek closed a portion of Highways 1820 and 1628 north and northeast of Cunningham.
KY-1462 was closed northeast of Benton due to flooding issues from heavy rains during the morning. Issues lingered through the day before the evening round of heavy rain intensified flooding near Benton.
Flash flooding along the Little Bayou de Chien east of Cayce closed Highway 94.
One person was rescued from a vehicle stranded in high water on Clayton Drive east of Murray.
Major flooding of several roads occurred along the South Fork of the Little River on the east and south sides of Hopkinsville. Durret Avenue, Christian Quarry Road and Marietta Drive were impassable due to high water. The river level at the Hopkinsville Bypass crested at 20.16 feet around 1645CST on the 15th. The major flood stage is 20 feet.
Much of Highway 121 from New Concord southeast to the state line was impassable due to flood waters.
Flood waters isolated the Evergreen Apartments in Hopkinsville. Several nearby roads were water covered and impassable.
Flash flooding has covered the road on U.S. 51 near the intersection with Highway 1529.
Heavy rain(1-2) on the morning of the 15th led to a rock slide that closed the right lane of northbound Interstate 69 at the 87 mile marker.
Highway 1255/Bonds Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Flash flooding made several roads in Pembroke impassable, including Mason Lane at Highway 115, Spring Street, and south Main Street. Flood waters were just deep enough to get into two homes on East Nashville Street in Pembroke.
Flooding along the Clarks River and Bee Creek closed numerous roads in and around Murray.
Flood water closed a portion of Highway 94 3 to 4 miles west of Hickman.
Flash flooding closed a portion of Highway 138 near Slaughters.
Flash flooding along Mayfield Creek closed a portion of U.S. 62 east of Cunningham.
Flash flooding washed out portions of several county roads.
Poplar Creek Road has flooded near Poplar Creek just west of Kuttawa. Bill Thompson Road was flooded at Spring Creek and Joe Peek Road was flooded near Crab Creek.
Nearly two dozen roads were closed due to flash flooding as of 4 PM. The flash flooding intensified in the early evening, as a line of thunderstorms moved through the region. Highway 298 was closed just west of Masonville, and Highways 762 and 764 were closed near the Ohio County line.
Flash flooding closed several county roads between Herndon and Ft Campbell, including Palmyra Road.
Flood waters made portions of New Hope Road and Hardy Road impassable.
A portion of Highway 1014/Houser Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Flash flooding closed a portion of Highway 1379 northeast of Central city. Several other county roads were also closed from Central City to Powderly and Greenville.
Flood water from Mayfield Creek closed Highway 408 east near Viola.
Flash flooding closed a portion of Highway 80 just west of Arlington.
Flash flooding along Goose Creek closed Highway 128 southeast of Princeton.
Widespread flooding surrounded a mobile home on Highway 80.
Flood water from Cane Creek flooded a garage and surrounded a house on Tater Road northwest of Wingo.
A water rescue occurred due to a four wheeler driven into floodwaters during the morning hours of the 16th. A juvenile clinging to a tree was rescued.
Flash flooding closed Alternate U.S. 41 near the Webster County line.
Multiple periods of heavy rainfall (3-4) led to flooding of numerous highways and county roads. Housebridge Road was closed at Beaverdam Creek. Highway 1557 was closed at Camp Creek. Highway 351 was closed at Lick Creek. Highway 812 was closed southeast of Henderson.
A water rescue occurred on Highway 109 near Wheatcroft due to flash flooding along the Caney Fork.
A water rescue occurred along Slaughters Elmwood Road north of Slaughters due to flash flooding along the Sugar Camp Creek.
A water rescue occurred on Highway 132 between Dixon and Clay due to flash flooding along Crab Orchard Creek.
A bridge on KY-58 lost much of its support due to flash flooding damage. The scale of damage was observed once waters receded during the afternoon the day after torrential rainfall. End time based on observation of damage.
Torrential rainfall during the evening hours, following the heavy rain from the earlier round, resulted in flash flooding issues on the north and east side of Benton with multiple roads closed. Flooding issues transitioned to areal flooding overnight with the highest water levels in the town of Benton occurring the following day with the arrival of extremely high waters on the Clarks River.
Flash flooding closed a portions of Highway 902 near the Dry Branch.
Flash flooding closed Highway 855 between Frances and New Salem.
Flash flooding has closed Highway 1943 at Skin Frame Creek and Highway 819 at Panther Creek. Several county roads also flooded in the same areas.
Flash flooding along Yellow Creek, closed a portion of Highway 797 southeast of Beech Grove. One water rescue occurred in this location. Numerous other county roads were flooded across McLean County.
Flooding along Massac Creek closed a portion of Highways 305 and 1585.
Flash flooding closed a portion of U.S. 62 near Nortonville.
Flood waters have closed Highway 307 from Highway 58 in Fulgham southward to the Fulton County line. Every State Highway across Hickman County now has water over it in at least one location, with the exception of Highway 239.
Flood water from the Clarks River was 2 to 4 inches deep in the Calloway County Fire-Rescue substation in Almo. The substation has never flooded before. Flood water caused minor damage to a nearby home and got into the crawl space of another.
The South Fork of the Little River at Highway 68/80 rose back above flood stage in the late evening after having flooded earlier in the day. Minor flooding of low-lying areas occurred along the South Fork of the Little River near Highway 68/80. Moderate flooding of low-lying areas occurred from 0100CST to 0300CST on the 16th, as the river level at Highway 68/80 briefly climbed above the moderate flood level of 17 feet.
Brushy Grove Creek flooded Highway 126 making it impassable. Portions of Wallonia Road (Highway 128) and Barefield Road (Highway 1507) were also closed due to flood waters. The flooding was generally centered around the community of Cerulean.
Flash flooding from earlier in the evening transitioned to areal flooding before midnight. Highway 902 remained closed.
Flash flooding earlier in the evening transitioned to areal flooding before midnight. Highway 855 between Frances and New Salem remained closed.
Flash flooding from the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th around midnight. Flood water continued to close a portion of U.S. 51 south of Clinton, and portions of Highways 123, 239, 1238, 1529, and 58. Numerous county roads were washed out or otherwise sustained some damage.
Flash flooding from the 15th transitioned to areal flooding just after midnight on the 16th. Portions of Highway 94 east of Cayce and west of Hickman remained closed.
Flash flooding on the 15th transitioned to areal flooding around midnight on the 16th. Several roads remained closed due to flooding, including Highways 1255, 787, and 348.
Flash flooding on the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th and continued through the 17th. Extensive damage to numerous county roads occurred, along with damage to culverts and shoulders.
Flash flooding from the evening of the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Highways 1943 and 819 remained closed.
Flash flooding from the evening of the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Alternate U.S. 41 near the Webster County line and U.S. 62 near Nortonville continued to flood, along with numerous county roads.
The flash flooding on the evening of the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. The additional flood waters served to aggravate the ongoing flooding on the Green River through McLean County.
Flash flooding on the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Numerous highways and county roads continued to be closed. Flooding along Crab Orchard Creek was particularly troublesome as it closed Highways 270, 1340, and 132.
Flash flooding from the evening of the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Numerous highways and county roads remained closed, mainly to the south and west of Owensboro, as well as near Oklahoma.
Significant areal flooding occurred on the northern and eastern sides of the city of Benton due to the arrival of extremely high water levels on the Clarks River, which had reached record levels upstream at Almo, and accompanying branches and streams. Many businesses on the north side of town near Main Street sustained water intrusion with vast areas completely covered. Rainfall amounts were around 5 to 6.5 inches with the KY Mesonet site 4 miles north of Benton recording 6.4 inches of rain on the 15th.
Flash flooding from the 15th into early on the 16th transitioned to areal flooding along the Clarks River from Almo to the Dexter area. Highway 1346 and other local roads were closed.
Flash flooding from the 15th and early 16th transitioned to areal flooding along Cane and Brush Creeks to the west of Pryorsburg and Wingo. Highways 1283 and 58 remained closed.
Flash flooding from the 15th and early 16th transitioned to areal flooding along Mayfield Creek and the West Fork of the Clarks River near Viola and Symsonia. A man lost his life after his vehicle was washed away in flood waters on Highway 348 where it crosses the West Fork of the Clarks River northwest of Symsonia. Numerous roads, including Highway 408, remained closed into the 17th.
Flash flooding on the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Portions of several state highways were closed, including Highway 139 south of Farmersville, Highway 91 northwest of White Sulphur, Highway 293 southwest of Princeton, and Highway 126 from Highway 128 to the Trigg County line. The bulk of the flooding ended on the 16th, but the time was extended into the 17th for a fatality that occurred when flood waters washed a man's car off the levee and into the spillway of Lake Beshear.
Flash flooding from the evening of the 15th transitioned to areal flooding early on the 16th. Highway 1379 remained flooded, as did many other county roads from Central City to Powderly to Greenville.
Flash flooding from the 15th and early on the 16th transitioned to areal flooding near Cerulean in northeast Trigg County. Swollen rivers, creeks, and streams continued to flood several roads, including Wallonia Road, Barefield Road, and Cobb Road.
Flash flooding from the 15th and very early on the 16th transitioned to areal flooding along many rivers, creeks, and streams over the eastern half of Christian County. Portions of Highways 695, 345, 1663, 1338, and 124 were closed due to high water.
A semi truck and trailer washed off the road on U.S. 51 south of Clinton near the intersection with Highway 780. A water rescue was performed.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Graves | 2025-02-16 | 39 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flood, Caldwell | 2025-02-17 | 67 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1235029, 1236140, 1235732, 1236251, 1236546, 1236232, 1236607, 1230216, 1236559, 1236137, 1236025, 1236235, 1235578, 1236548, 1237341, 1236650, 1235577, 1236139, 1236566, 1237372, 1236598, 1236867, 1236869, 1237869, 1235579, 1236135, 1236658, 1237358, 1236252, 1236612, 1237337, 1236584, 1236541, 1230210, 1237355, 1237401, 1237374, 1237377, 1237388, 1230212, and more.