NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 2:29 AM PST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 2:29 AM PST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
229 AM PST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Snow continues over the Sierra above 6000 feet with periods of
rain over western NV today and tomorrow.
* Gusty winds will continue across the region through Friday,
although winds on Wednesday should be lighter.
* A more significant and colder system is expected Thursday into
Friday with heavy snowfall, strong winds, and colder
conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An atmospheric river continues to affect the region through early
tomorrow morning. Then we have a break or lull in activity on
Wednesday morning through very early Thursday morning. We remain
on a southwesterly flow bringing ample moisture and gusty winds,
especially aloft as the upper trough slowly descends from the
northern Pacific. By tomorrow, ensembles and deterministic models
indicate a lull in precipitation as the trough descends and
temporarily cuts the moisture inflow. By Thursday, the upper
trough finally moves inland and bringing another shot at
precipitation and gusty winds. At least this system is quicker
with impacts ending by Friday evening.
Over the weekend and into early next week, we will be at the edge
of the storm track. Therefore, the better chances for
precipitation and gusty winds remain north of the area. However,
breezes, and lingering showers are possible. However, the angle of
the trough will allow for a colder airmass to advect towards
western NV, NE CA and the Sierra with temperatures 10 to 15
degrees colder than usual for this time of the year.
Here are some of the details with the current system and the next
system late this week:
PRECIPITATION: Conditions above 6500 feet across the northern
Sierra will continue to deteriorate this morning, but snow levels
rise this afternoon to 7000 to 8000 ft. The Sierra could see a
range of 1 to 3 feet of snow accumulate through the rest of today
into early Wednesday morning with the Eastern Sierra crest seeing
higher amounts of the range. For more information on this winter
storm system, please see the current Winter Storm Warning product
for the Sierra portions of the CWA. Snow water equivalent (SWE)
for today looks to still be 0.10 to 0.50 inches in the western
Nevada valleys, 1 to 3 inches in the Tahoe Basin and the Sierra
crest could see around 2.50 inches of new liquid. The
precipitation will taper for Wednesday morning (SWE around 0.10
inches or less along the Sierra through Wednesday night). However,
early on Thursday, snow levels will come down and close to the
valley floors during the morning commute, which could cause a
rain/snow mix that may hinder travel across the CWA. Snow levels
still look to come up for the afternoon and evening, changing the
valleys below 5000 ft over to rain, but will tumble back to valley
floors by Friday morning. Widespread snow showers will linger
into Friday (Please see Winter Storm Watch product for the Sierra
Mountain portions of the CWA for more info/potential snowfall
amounts), while some light mountain snow shower chances may be
present through Saturday afternoon. Check the latest road
conditions at nvroads.com or quickmap.ca.gov as you plan your
travel this week. The latest snowfall forecast along with
potential winter weather impacts can also be seen at
weather.gov/rev/winter.
WIND: The jet stream shifts towards central CA today as the upper
trough pulls on it. However, during the time the strongest winds
aloft occur, clouds and precipitation moves in reducing the max
winds possible with this system. Therefore, expect gusts in
western NV ranging in the 35-55 mph with wind prone areas
experiencing stronger gusts. Over the Sierra ridges, gusts could
be upwards of 85 mph. We get a lull on the winds on Wednesday, but
winds will still be kind of breezy with gusts in the 20-30 mph
range. By Thursday with the next system, the focus will be from
the Quad counties and Tahoe Basin area towards Mineral and Mono
county.
IMPACTS:
* Be prepared for hazardous driving conditions in wind prone areas,
especially for high profile vehicles, especially during the late
morning through early evening hours today.
* Travelers should anticipate chain controls, delays, and hazardous
driving conditions over mountain passes. It is advised to check
road conditions with Caltrans and NDOT 511 before traveling into
the mountains.
* Aviation interests should be prepared for frequent periods of
mountain wave turbulence, rotors, and LLWS.
* The windy conditions will also bring choppy lake conditions with
wave heights of 2-4 feet for larger area lakes through today.
* Other potential impacts include downed trees, fences and
powerlines, and power outages.
-HC/078
&&
.AVIATION...
* Mountain snow and valley rain continues with a potential lull on
Wednesday. IFR/LIFR conditions with mountain obscurations and
low visibilities are likely in Sierra terminals. Additionally,
there will be periods of moderate to heavy precipitation,
turbulence, LLWS and gusty winds.
* WINDS: Turbulence and LLWS remain present through at least
tomorrow afternoon. Wind gusts along Sierra ridges could exceed
100 kts through this evening, with surface wind gusts for valley
terminals ranging between 30-40 kts. Winds decrease by Wednesday
but remain quite breezy.
* PRECIPITATION: Snow continues over the Sierra through tonight
with activity decreasing by Wednesday morning. Spillover periods
of rain continue over western NV through tonight with no
significant accumulations, except for this evening.
-078/HC
&&
.AVALANCHE...
Strong winds, high elevation snow, and heavy rain is likely this
week for the Lake Tahoe area and southward. There looks to be a lull
period on Wednesday sandwiched between two winter weather systems
this week. Will continue to monitor the late week system, but it
currently looks to be a fast moving system compared to the early
week's system.
* Snow levels: Area snow levels start around 5500 to 6000 feet
this morning, then increase to 6500 to 8000 ft this afternoon.
The late week system's (Thursday-Friday) snow levels currently
look to be around 3000-4500 feet in the Northern Sierra
Mountains while the East-Central Sierra sees 5500-6500 feet on
Thursday that come crashing down on Friday.
* Snowfall totals: Snowfall is expected through Wednesday morning,
with 2-3 feet of snow expected along the highest peaks Tahoe and
southward. As of now, the heaviest period of snowfall will take
place on Tuesday evening and overnight with the Tahoe basin
seeing up to 8 inches of snow in a 6 hour period. Locally higher
amounts towards Mono County (up to 12 inches in a 6 hour
period) along the highest peaks. For the late week system, the
forecast currently calls for around 20-35 inches in the Sierra
crest.
* SWE and SLR: SWE looks to be around 1 to 2.5 inches through
tomorrow morning for the Northern Sierra including the Tahoe
Basin. Those numbers decrease as you head southward with 1 to 2
inches in the Eastern Sierra. This system is relatively wet, so
SLRs will be between 6:1 and 10:1. The late week system
currently looks to bring around 1 to 2.5 inches of SWE with SLRs
of 9-16:1 between Thursday and Friday.
-078/HC
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
* Changes...The Flood Advisory for Plumas and Sierra Counties has
been dropped. While flows are still forecast to increase on the
Middle Fork of the Feather through the week, they are expected to
crest well below flood stage. Other creeks and streams in and
south of Plumas county will remain elevated and may see some
additional rises, but no significant flooding is expected.
* A flood warning continues for the Pit River in NW Lassen County.
The Pit River near Canby is cresting upstream, but flooding in
Big Valley is still expected due to impacts from numerous
streams that enter the Pit River below the Canby gage. The Canby
gage was expected to continue to rising into Wednesday, but
latest observed data shows the river cresting at the moment of
this writing. Smaller tributaries below the gage are likely to
remain elevated, but recede slowly this week.
* The Susan River at Susanville crested last night just above
minor flood stage, and has receded below action stage. Very
high flows are still making their way down the lower Susan River
and could cause minor flood impacts. While the Susan River is
not forecast to return to flood stage, additional rises and
minor flooding can not be ruled out if the next wave of
precipitation comes in with higher rain/snow elevations then
forecast.
* Check cnrfc.noaa.gov for updated forecasts. River forecasts will
be updated 4 times per by 9am, 3pm, 9pm, and 3am PST. Through
Tuesday night. -Bardsley/078/HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night NVZ002.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday NVZ002.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ001-003-004.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Tuesday CAZ071.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night CAZ071>073.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday CAZ072.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday CAZ073.
&&