NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 3:49 PM PST, 10 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 3, 3:49 PM PST, 10 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
349 PM PST Mon Feb 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* An active pattern continues through this week with periods of
heavy precipitation and strong gusty winds.
* The latest in this series of winter storms will impact the
Sierra today through Wednesday morning. This system will have
lower snow levels, continued strong winds, and flooding concerns
across northwest Lassen County.
* A more significant system is possible for Thursday going into
Friday, with heavy snowfall, strong winds, and colder conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The forecast calls for the atmospheric river winter weather event to
continue through this week with a possible lull in the action on
Wednesday sandwiched between two more rounds of active weather.
Forecast guidance has the CWA with a west-southwesterly flow
aloft being generally between an upper air Pacific trough to the
west and an upper air ridge in the central CONUS today and
tomorrow. On Wednesday, the CWA's upper air flow turns more zonal
as the Pacific trough moves eastward. But by Thursday, models show
another trough developing over the Pacific Northwest that passes
over the CWA on Friday.
With this upper air pattern evolution, the forecast shows a
winter storm going through today and lasting into Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Threats with this storm include strong
winds with blowing dust possible in some locations, mountain snow,
and valley rain that may allow for some possible flooding
concerns. Following a somewhat of a brief break on Wednesday,
another yet colder weather system looks to be in the forecast for
on Thursday and Friday with more of the CWA seeing snowfall
chances along with enhanced winds. This late week system looks
to potentially be a quicker moving system compared to the early
week's system, but it still could bring a good amount of snowfall
that may impact travel through the mountains once again. The
breakdown of the upcoming weather threats are as follows:
* PRECIPITATION: Snow levels expect to be between 6000-7500 feet
throughout today and going into tomorrow afternoon. This will
translate into valley rain and a mountain rain/snow mix during
the remainder of the daytime hours today. QPF for the rest of
today will be the greatest along the northern Sierra and will
range from under a tenth of an inch west of US-395 to around 1-2
inches along the crest. Snow accumulations still look to mostly
begin after sunset, and will be greatest north of US-50 and
along the western-most peaks of the northern Sierra with around
a half of a foot to around just over a foot of additional snow
possible. By sunrise Tuesday, conditions on roads above 6500
feet across the northern Sierra can expect to worsen. The Sierra
could see a range of 2 to 4 feet of snow accumulate on Tuesday
into early Wednesday morning with the Sierra crest portions of
Mono County seeing the higher amounts of the range. For more
information on this winter storm system, please see the current
Winter Storm Warning product for the Sierra portions of the CWA.
Snow water equivalent (SWE) for Tuesday looks to still be 0.10
to 0.50 inches in the western Nevada valleys, 2 to 3 inches in
the Tahoe Basin and the Sierra crest could see around 3.50
inches of new liquid. The precipitation will taper for Wednesday
afternoon (SWE around 0.10 inches or less along the Sierra
through Wednesday night). However on early Thursday, snow levels
will come down and close to the valley floors during the morning
commute which could cause a rain/snow mix that may hinder some
traveling conditions in the CWA. Snow levels still look to come
up briefly for the afternoon, changing the valleys over to all
rain, but will tumble back to valley floors by Thursday night.
Widespread snow showers will linger into Friday (Please see
Winter Storm Watch product for the Sierra Mountain portions of
the CWA for more info/potential snowfall amounts), while some
mountain snow shower chances may be present through Sunday. It
is recommended to check for the latest road conditions at
nvroads.com or quickmap.ca.gov as you plan your travel this
week. The latest snowfall forecast along with potential winter
weather impacts can also be seen at weather.gov/rev/winter.
* WINDS: The proximity of the atmospheric river also means we are
in a favorable position beneath the jet to keep gusty to strong
winds in the forecast through much of the period. Gusts up to 60
mph will make it all the way to the valley floors, with the
ridges still rocking at up to around 95 mph in Mono County.
Travel will remain to be difficult for aviators, high-profile
vehicles and those trying to travel mountain passes. See the
Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Tahoe, our Wind Advisory for the
Basin and Range, and our High Wind Warning for the Sierra Front
for more details. Reductions in visibility have been reported in
desert areas of western NV this afternoon due to blowing dust.
Tuesday sees a slight reduction in wind speeds, but gusty winds
will still be an issue with the potential for some of the
valley areas seeing 45-50 mph gusts possible once again. Winds
will relax a bit on Wednesday before amplifying again ahead of
the next trough on Thursday and Friday with the late week
system. Please check www.weather.gov/rev for our latest
information.
IMPACTS:
* Be prepared for hazardous driving conditions in wind prone areas,
especially for high profile vehicles, especially during the late
morning through early evening hours today.
* Travelers should anticipate chain controls, delays, and hazardous
driving conditions over mountain passes. It is advised to check
road conditions with Caltrans and NDOT 511 before traveling into
the mountains.
* Aviation interests should be prepared for frequent periods of
mountain wave turbulence, rotors, and LLWS.
* The windy conditions will also bring choppy lake conditions with
wave heights of 2-4 feet for larger area lakes through today.
* Other potential impacts include downed trees, fences and
powerlines, and power outages. -HRICH/078
&&
.AVIATION...
* Mountain snow and valley rain chances continue early this week
with a potential lull in activity on Wednesday. Be alert for
IFR/LIFR conditions with mountain obscurations and low
visibilities. Additionally, there will be periods of moderate to
heavy precipitation, turbulence, LLWS and gusty winds within
the region.
* WINDS: Expect turbulence and LLWS to remain present through at
least this evening. Wind gusts along Sierra ridges could exceed
100 kts for the rest of today, with surface wind gusts for
valley terminals ranging between 35-45 kts for the most part.
Enhanced winds are also possible within the region tomorrow.
* PRECIPITATION: Rain will spillover into the Sierra front terminals
later this afternoon going into the evening with some terminals
seeing snow mix in during the overnight hours. -HRICH/078
&&
.AVALANCHE...
Strong winds, high elevation snow, and heavy rain is likely this
week for the Lake Tahoe area and southward. There looks to be a lull
period on Wednesday sandwiched between two winter weather systems
during the work week. Will continue to monitor the late week
system, but it currently looks to be a fast moving system compared
to the early week's system.
* Snow levels: Area snow levels expect to be between 6000-7500
feet throughout the rest of the day. Sierra locations south of
Lake Tahoe will likely see snow levels locally lower tonight.
The late week system's (Thursday-Friday) snow levels currently
look to be around 3000-4500 feet in the Northern Sierra
Mountains while the East-Central Sierra sees 5500-7000 feet on
Thursday that come crashing downward going into Friday.
* Snowfall totals: Snowfall is expected today through Wednesday
morning, with 3-4 feet of snow expected along the highest peaks
Tahoe and southward. As of now, the heaviest period of snowfall
will take place on Tuesday afternoon with the Tahoe basin seeing
up to around 8 inches of snow in a 6 hour period. Locally
higher towards Mono County (up to 12 inches in a 6 hour period)
along the highest peaks. For the late week system, the forecast
currently calls for around 20-30 inches in the Sierra crest.
* SWE and SLR: SWE looks to be around an inch for the rest of
today in the Northern Sierra, with an additional half of an inch
around the Tahoe Basin, that dramatically decreases as you head
southward. The rest of the early week's system will see higher
SWE levels with 2-3 additional inches in the Sierra Avalanche
Center's area. For the Bridgeport and Eastern Sierra Avalanche
Centers, roughly 2-4 additional inches, with the highest amounts
in the highest peaks. This system is relatively wet, so SLRs
will be between 6:1 and 9:1. The late week system currently
looks to bring around 1-2 inches of SWE with single digit
(6-9:1) SLRs on Thursday with SLRs of 15-16:1 on Friday.
-HRICH/078
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
* Changes...The Flood Advisory for Plumas and Sierra Counties has
been dropped. While flows are still forecast to increase on the
Middle Fork of the Feather through the week, they are expected to
crest well below flood stage. Other creeks and streams in and
south of Plumas county will remain elevated and may see some
additional rises, no flooding is expected.
* A flood warning continues for the Pit River in NW. Lassen County.
The Pit River near Canby is still rising upstream and flooding in
Big Valley is also impacted by numerous streams that enter the Pit
River below the Canby gage. The Canby gage is expected to continue
to rise into Wednesday. Smaller tributaries below the gage are
likely to remain elevated, but recede slowly into the week.
* The Susan River at Susanville crested last night just above minor
flood stage, and has reseeded below action stage. Very high flows
are still making their way down the lower Susan River and could
cause minor flood impacts. While the Susan River is not forecast
to return to flood stage, additional rises and minor flooding can
not be ruled out if the next wave of precipitation comes in with
higher rain/snow elevations then forecast.
* Check cnrfc.noaa.gov for updated forecasts. River forecasts will
be updated 4 times per by 9am, 3pm, 9pm, and 3am PST. Through
Tuesday night. -Bardsley/078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday NVZ002.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ001-003.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening NVZ004.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Tuesday CAZ071.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night CAZ071>073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday CAZ072.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ073.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Wednesday CAZ073.
&&