Arizona, 2025Drought in Arizona, February 4 to 28, 2025
February 4 to 28, 2025 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to northeastern sections of southeast Arizona during beginning of February and by the end of the month included western sections and eastern sections of Southeastern Arizona. The total area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; the Huachuca…
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
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- Floods
- Wind
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- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to northeastern sections of southeast Arizona during beginning of February and by the end of the month included western sections and eastern sections of Southeastern Arizona. The total area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County; and Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Across Southeast Arizona, the overall precipitation ranking was in the bottom tenth of the driest months on record. Soil moisture readings fell to below the 1st percentile ranking by the end of February in most areas.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 1:53 AM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 1:53 AM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 AM MST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions today with potentially record breaking warm
temperatures. Though temperatures cool a bit Wednesday through the
weekend, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue
through this period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels, flow has become southwesterly over the desert
southwest as a Pacific Northwest trough sits to the north. While
the broad ridge that has brought unseasonably warm temperatures
is shifting east, the region remains under strong positive mid-
upper level height anomalies. Another day of near to record
breaking highs under this ridging is expected today before temperatures
cool off slightly tomorrow after the ridge axis fully exits. A
modestly tightened pressure gradient associated with the southwest
flow will likely produce breezy winds today in the 10-20 mph
range, with gusts up to 25 mph. As the jet stream nudges southward
towards the region Wednesday through the weekend, daily breezy
conditions are likely to a varying degree.
High temperatures will transition from 12-16 degrees above normal
today to 10-14 through the remainder of the work week, then likely
gradually dropping off further this weekend into next week.
Ensemble heights continue to favor a transition to troughing next
week across the western to central CONUS, which should at least
bring southern Arizona temperatures closer to normal by mid-week
(if not colder if a deeper wave arrives). Given the open-wave
pattern depicted in deterministic and ensemble guidance, notable
precipitation chances look scarce. At this point the forecast
remains dry through the 7 day period into Tuesday, with longer
range ensembles/NBM depicting low but non-zero chances mid to late
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
FEW-SCT high level cirrus gradually clearing through the forecast
period. Winds increase to 10-15 kts out of the south/southwest
after 04/18Z, with gusts to 20 kts. Lighter winds expected at
KSAD. Winds diminish and become terrain driven after 05/02Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures continue today. Breezy south to
southwest winds are expected to increase late this morning and
afternoon across much of southeastern Arizona, especially in areas
exposed to southwest flow and ridge tops. 10 to 20 mph winds with
gusts up to 25 mph likely in these areas. Minimum
relative humidity values will be down into the 8 to 14 percent
range this afternoon. These dry conditions remain through the
weekend, with slightly higher values in far western Pima county.
Though not as warm as today, temperatures remain unseasonably warm
through the remainder of the week as well.
&&
.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures today.
DATE Feb 04
FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 85 84/1925
AJO 84 85/1963
KITT PEAK 67 75/1963
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 83 89/1963
PICACHO PEAK 82 82/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION 82 75/1995
SIERRA VISTA FD 79 77/1980
TOMBSTONE 80 79/1963
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/TucsonDrought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- February 4, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to northeastern sections of southeast Arizona during beginning of February. The drought area began with portions of southern Greenlee and southeast Graham counties. For the month of February, Greenlee County ranked 10th driest and Graham ranked the 14th driest for the period of record. Soil moisture readings is between the 5th and 10th percentile for the month of February.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- High Wind and Winter Weather in California, February 4 to 5, 202567 kt wind · 11 events
- Heavy Snow and High Wind in California, February 4 to 5, 2025126 kt wind · 10 events
- High Wind in Nevada, February 4 to 5, 202572 kt wind · 9 events
- Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 4 to 5, 2025118 kt wind · 5 events
- High Wind in Nevada, February 4 to 7, 202558 kt wind · 5 events
- Heavy Snow in Oregon, February 4 to 5, 20252 events
- Drought in Connecticut, February 4 to 28, 20252 events
- Heavy Snow in Washington, February 4 to 5, 20252 events
- Drought in New Mexico, February 4 to 28, 20252 events
- Marine High Wind in Lake Superior, February 4, 202553 kt wind · 1 event
- High Wind in Wyoming, February 4, 202552 kt wind · 1 event
- High Wind in Utah, February 4 to 5, 202558 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1231397.