An upper-level trough crossed the Four Corners region and dipped into northern Mexico on February 14, 2025. In response, deep southwesterly flow set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley and advected Gulf moisture poleward.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper-level trough crossed the Four Corners region and dipped into northern Mexico on February 14, 2025. In response, deep southwesterly flow set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley and advected Gulf moisture poleward. Showers and thunderstorms blossomed across the region during the early morning hours on February 15, 2025. Meanwhile, a warm front quickly accelerated northward during the morning of February 15th as surface low pressure traversed the Southern Plains. The front stalled across the northern parts of the Mid-South. Heavy rainfall was focused along and north of the stalled front with 4 to 7 inches falling north of Interstate 40. Flash flooding was common across northwest Tennessee into northeast Arkansas during the day on February 15th. The event transitioned toward severe weather during the evening of February 15th as the airmass south of the warm front destabilized. The surface low tracked into north-central Arkansas and a line of severe storms developed and pushed across the Mid-South during the evening hours of February 15th exiting into Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama by midnight. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few weak tornadoes occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:30 AM CST, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
- Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across portions of
northwest Tennessee through late evening as 4 to 6 inches of
rain occurs. 2 to 5 inches is possible across the rest of the
Mid-South. River flooding and flash flooding are possible
across the entire Mid-South. A Flood Watch is in effect from
now through 6AM Sunday.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected for much of the
area on Saturday afternoon and evening, especially for areas
along and south of I-40. All hazards (damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, tornadoes, large hail) are possible. A strong tornado
or two (EF - 2 or greater) is possible.
- Well below normal temperatures are favored next week. Long
range models depict accumulating snow during the middle of next
week. Arctic air will move into the Mid-South for Wednesday
through Friday with single digit temperatures possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Plenty of convective activity already on radar this morning. The
most recent precipitation observations are pinging at or above 1
inch for along a WSW to ENE line from Jonesboro, AR to Dyersburg,
TN to Paris, TN. Showers and thunderstorms continue to train along
this theta-e axis at this hour, which is coincident with the
moderate and high risk areas for excessive rainfall. The flooding
threat is already ramping up and rainfall totals could approach 3
inches before sunup. A flood advisory has been issued for minor
crest unit streamflow responses.
The latest surface analysis places a 1003mb low near the Texas
Panhandle with a cold front extending southwest into southern
Utah. Another low was analyzed near Houston, TX with an attendant
warm front extending east along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Aloft, a
deepening positively-tilted longwave trough was located to the
southeast of the Four Corners region with deep southwesterly flow
over the majority of the Mississippi Valley.
The aforementioned trough will rapidly dig south into northern
Mexico and become more neutrally-tilted by 18Z this afternoon.
The Panhandle surface low will take an easterly track and push the
Gulf warm front all the way up to the I-40 corridor during the
same timeframe. The parameter space will quickly become conducive
for all modes of severe weather including damaging winds,
tornadoes (of which a couple could be strong), large hail, and
heavy rainfall. The warm sector will be characterized by moderate
instability, strong deep layer shear, and high levels of low level
helicity. MLCAPE values will range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 55
to 60 knots of 0-6 km shear, and 0-1 SRH values in near 350
m2/s2. Point soundings across the warm sector depict large
looping hodographs with low LCLs. There is enough confidence to
begin mentioning the threat of a couple of strong and potentially
long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Nearly 40
meter height falls will overspread the increasingly unstable warm
sector between 10AM and 2PM and could spawn a couple of supercells
ahead of an organizing line of convection.
By mid afternoon, the surface low will be located over north-
central Arkansas. HREF guidance is consistent with storm mode
changing from multi-cell clusters to a linear mode between 2 and
4 PM and just to the west of the Mississippi River. Once the line
congeals together, an all hazards threat will unfold as the line
sweeps eastward through late evening. Damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes are the main threat with large hail and heavy rainfall
as secondary threats. The QLCS should cross the Tennessee River
between 10 PM and midnight. Thereafter, a few trailing showers
will continue through tomorrow morning. Gusty post-frontal
northwest winds will advect in a polar airmass on Sunday. Below
normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist on Monday and
Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, a shortwave will traverse the Southern Plains
and dig ESE into the Lower Mississippi Valley. LREF guidance is
rather consistent with accumulating snow for areas along and north
of I-40. LREF probabilities for 1 inch of snowfall are now 75
percent or greater. Deterministic guidance remains divided on
totals with the ECMWF more bullish than the GFS on snowfall
totals. Nonetheless, there is a strong signal for accumulating
snow at this point.
Thereafter, the polar vortex will unleash a blast of arctic air
upon the Mid-South. NBM guidance suggests that numerous locations
could remain below freezing for 72 hours or more for Wednesday
through Saturday morning. Cold weather products look likely during
the latter part of next week as temperatures plummet into the
single digits. Winter is not over yet.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Warm air advection has allowed shower and thunderstorm activity
to encompass the airspace most of the evening. This trend will
continue as a warm front continues its northern ascent. A squall
line will take aim late this afternoon into early evening with a
cold frontal passage.
Elevated and gusty winds will persist through the day and a
wind shift is expected post frontal. Generally MVFR and IFR CIGs
will prevail through the period. Conditions can deteriorate
further with any thunderstorm activity. An AWW will likely be
needed for KMEM during FROPA. Winds will remain elevated and gusty
post frontal from the NW. MVFR conds will end out the period and
should return to MVFR tomorrow afternoon.
DNM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-
048-049-058.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-
088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
932 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 AM Flash Flood 1 WNW Paris 36.31N 88.33W
02/15/2025 Henry TN Trained Spotter
Trained Spotter sent in a video showing
significant flooding at Johnson Park.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
945 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0922 AM Flash Flood 2 N Forked Deer 35.80N 89.41W
02/15/2025 Haywood TN Emergency Mngr
Flooding over roadway, resulting in road
closure.
0922 AM Flash Flood 3 SW Maury City 35.78N 89.26W
02/15/2025 Crockett TN Emergency Mngr
Flooding over roadway, resulting in a road
closure.
0922 AM Flash Flood 2 SE Alamo 35.76N 89.09W
02/15/2025 Crockett TN Emergency Mngr
Flooding over roadway, resulting in road
closure.
0922 AM Flash Flood 2 E Gadsden 35.78N 88.95W
02/15/2025 Crockett TN Emergency Mngr
Flooding over roadway, resulting in road
closure.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
946 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0922 AM Flash Flood 3 NNE Maury City 35.85N 89.21W
02/15/2025 Crockett TN Emergency Mngr
Flooding over Johnny Powell Rd, resulting in
road closure.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
948 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 AM Flash Flood 2 SW Martin 36.32N 88.89W
02/15/2025 Weakley TN Emergency Mngr
Flash flooding over roadway with one
stranded motorist.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
950 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 AM Flash Flood 4 WNW Martin 36.37N 88.93W
02/15/2025 Weakley TN Fire Dept/Rescue
Flooded roadway resulting in road closure.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
951 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 AM Flash Flood 2 SW Martin 36.32N 88.89W
02/15/2025 Weakley TN Fire Dept/Rescue
Corrects previous flash flood report from 2
SW Martin. Flash flooding over roadway with
one stranded motorist *Corrected to edit
report source*.
&&The Memphis radar (KNQA), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:59 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooded roadways in areas near Dyess, Arkansas.
Multiple trees were knocked down in Marked Tree along Highway 75.
Several roads were flooded in the Gosnell area. Water reached at least one home.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1235166, 1235171, 1235168.