Winter Storm in Alaska, November 7, 2024

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/
The front continues to make its way north across the panhandle
this morning, changing winds from northerlies to southerlies. This
front end the short break of dry weather as precipitation begins
again. The southern panhandle has already seen these wind
direction and precipitation changes.

The Icy strait area and northern panhandle could see mixed
precipitation early this morning before it switches to rain. This
is due to the wind direction changing from being northerly to
southernly. The northerly flow helped to cool temperatures before
this front brought in more precipitation. The Haines and Klondike
highways will see snow today with total amounts around 3 to 5
inches. The rest of the panhandle, central and southern, will see
precipitation as rain, heavy at times. This rain will become more
showery late this morning with a slight chance of thunderstorms
along the coast this evening.

For winds, we will not only see a direction change, wind
magnitudes will also increase this morning. Inside channels can
expect fresh to strong breezes throughout the day. Strongest winds
will occur in north/south oriented channels. Coastal marine
waters can expect strong breezes throughout the day.

.LONG TERM.../Friday Through middle of Next week/...
The active weather pattern looks set to continue through most of
the weekend, before an early season northerly outflow event brings
cooler temperatures and drier weather to SE AK beginning late
Saturday and lasting through much of Monday.

The long range forecast starts with still more rain for SE AK.
Already widespread precip generated by strong onshore flow will be
reinforced by a shortwave rotating into the panhandle on Friday.
Expect lower chances of precip Saturday as a system approach from
the SW weakens onshore flow, and on Sunday think that parts of the
N half of the panhandle may be largely dry as said system passes
to the S. Expect a frontal band with this system to reach into the
southern panhandle and potentially into the outer Gulf Coast,
alongside breezy conditions. As the low passes to the S, the
pressure gradient fully turns out of the N across the panhandle,
and between the low to the S and a weak high pressure over the
Yukon, anticipate small craft or near small craft winds across
most of the inner channels Sunday into early Monday. Anticipate
drying conditions across the N half of the panhandle late Sunday
into Monday, with drier weather likely spreading into the S
panhandle by Tuesday. Some cooling of temperatures is expected,
but given the lack of a reservoir of truly cold arctic air in the
Canadian Interior, am anticipating that the weather shouldn't turn
too cold, with low temperatures largely staying in the 20s.
Operational guidance diverges substantially by Tuesday, though
another low could potentially pass to the S of the area through
the middle of next week. Anticipate that what precip does fall
should remain largely within seasonal parameters, with nothing too
extraordinary in the way of QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...

Brief period of clear skies overnight has produced a mixed bag of
LIFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this morning
with locally patchy fog affecting PAJN. Anticipating FG to
dissipate through morning as winds increase ahead of an
approaching system. Flight conditions this afternoon should be
variable between upper with CIGS AoB 3000 to 5000ft and
visibilities dropping down to 2 to 4sm within the heaviest
showers.

Once again for today, aviation concern will be elevated wind
gusts and LLWS. For this morning, seeing hints of a weak mountain
wave forming over the downtown Juneau area with increasing cross-
winds over Gastineau Channel up to 30kts. As the front approaches,
this should dissipate through late morning. For the southern
panhandle and coastal TAF sites such as PAKT and PAKW, anticipate
LLWS up to 40kts through 00z this afternoon as the system pushes
inland. Winds will increase through the afternoon for much of the
panhandle with sustained winds up to 15kts and gusts up to 30kts
possible, with strongest winds expected near Skagway and Haines by
00z this afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight AKST tonight
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033>036-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...NM

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