A storm system developed strengthened across the southern Rockies where it slowed down during the evening of November 6th. A cold front moved into the northwest Panhandles but stalled out, persisting throughout the event.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
A storm system developed strengthened across the southern Rockies where it slowed down during the evening of November 6th. A cold front moved into the northwest Panhandles but stalled out, persisting throughout the event. This front allowed for snow to fall in parts of the northwest Panhandles while the rest of the Panhandles to the south and east stayed mostly a cold rain. Seasonably rich moisture was brought in place ahead of the system, and precipitation began as early as the evening of November 6th in the northwestern Panhandles, beginning as snow. However, some of the areas that saw snow had precipitation changed to rain during the day on the 7th, melting some of the snow that fell. Precipitation changed back to snow on the night of the 7th. The western half of Cimarron County in Oklahoma and western half of Dallam County in the Texas Panhandle stayed mostly all snow into the morning of the 8th. This allowed snow totals to add up with almost two feet falling in the western third to quarter of Cimarron County. In total, 20 inches of snow fell in Kenton, Oklahoma, 18 inches in Wheeless, Oklahoma, and 11 inches in Texline, Texas. Highway 87 was closed northwest of Dalhart, and a part of I-40 was closed into New Mexico. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacted the remainder of the Panhandles, with widespread 1 to 3.5 inches of rain being observed. A flash flood was reported in Canadian where a road was washed out. All precipitation ended by the evening of the 8th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 10:46 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1046 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A prolonged period of precipitation is expected Wednesday night through Friday afternoon across the Panhandles. - Periods of wet snow is expected across a portion of the northwestern Panhandles; mostly in western Cimarron county and northwestern Dallam county. - There is high uncertainty regarding how much snow will fall, and for how much of Cimarron and Dallam counties. There is the potential for highly impactful snow, potentially exceeding a foot, for western Cimarron county and perhaps far northwestern Dallam county. There is lower confidence in this scenario, but it is in the realm of possibilities. - Widespread rain is expected across the Panhandles with amounts generally expected to be between 1-2 inches, though a few isolated locations may see as much as 3-4 inches if there is a prolonged period of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 A potent upper-level trough is current spinning above the Four Corner states, very slowly moving south or south-southwest. Meanwhile, a cold front has moved through the western Panhandles and is gradually moving southeast. Forecast models suggest this cold front will lose momentum as it moves into the eastern Panhandles and stall out this evening. Models have come into better agreement that the trough will dig more to the southwest tonight. Meanwhile, there will be robust 700mb theta-e advection moving into the Panhandles tonight gliding overtop the cold front, resulting in the development of precipitation in the northwestern combined Panhandles. At least some of this precipitation will fall in the form of wet snow, most likely in western Cimarron county but potentially as far east as Boise City. This activity should continue through Thursday morning. Unfortunately, this is where the greater uncertainties begin and compound. A slight majority of the models re-develop a northwest-southeast oriented band of showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the morning hours in the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, the NAM products push precipitation out of the northwestern Panhandles and keep the band of showers southwest of the CWA. This may be, in part, associated with the NAM products keeping the trough slightly further west than the others. The latest NBM really highlights this uncertainty more than previous runs by dropping PoPs across the central and eastern Panhandles, though it does still have almost 90% PoPs in for the northwest where the NAM products have nothing. In either case, rain will fill in from southwest to northeast through Thursday afternoon as impressive moisture transport continues. There is also uncertainty regarding what happens in the northwestern combined Panhandles at that time; although it will be precipitating, some models suggest that 850mb and 700mb temperatures will warm, causing the snow to transition to rain while others keep the freezing/sub-freezing thermo profile going. It's tough to say which solution is correct at this time, so it does insert additional uncertainty to the snow totals. It's possible that the NAM products are correct, and that perhaps an extremely small portion of Cimarron county sees snow Thursday, or the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/RDPS/GDPS/ICON are correct and 6-12 inches could fall for a more sizable portion of Cimarron county and northwestern Dallam county. Another complicating factor is that there will be a very sharp cutoff to where the snow falls. Uncertainty continues into Thursday night... especially in the northwestern Panhandles... as there could be a lull in the activity, it could switch to rain, or it could continue to snow. Most, if not all of that comes down to the track and position of the upper low at the time. Snow may continue in western Cimarron and perhaps northwestern Dallam county, but that again depends upon the longevity of the cold airmass. Otherwise, widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the Panhandles throughout Friday. Although rain rates could be as much as 1-3 inches per hour, these showers/isolated thunderstorms will be moving very quickly, thus the true hourly rain rates will generally be less than that... though enhanced totals may result from training heavy showers/storms. Still, thinking that the flash flood threat is low due to the very quick storm motion despite the potential for training. Most models bring in a dry slot from the southwest that bring precipitation to an end across much of the area by 6 PM Friday except perhaps the western Oklahoma Panhandle as moisture wraps around the low. Despite being highlighted frequently in the above paragraphs, it should be emphasized again that the confidence in snow totals northwestern Dallam and western Cimarron counties has high uncertainty. If the warmer NAM solution is right, perhaps a very small sliver of Cimarron county could see around 5-8 inches of snow, but if the colder solutions are right, over a foot of snow will be possible in western Cimarron county... and Boise City could see anywhere from no snow to 6 inches of snow. What is of higher certainty, however, is the potential for widespread rain for a prolonged period and rain totals between 1-2 inches. Although there is high uncertainty in how much snow will fall in western Cimarron and northwestern Dallam counties, there is enough confidence to transition the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning... but since it is a county-based warning, it will be heavily emphasized that the Warning is only meant to be valid for less than half of each county and that most of each county may not see snow at all. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 Overall, the long-term period look relatively uneventful especially compared to the short-term period. Saturday will kick off a warming trend as the upper low departs the Panhandles, and temperatures will reach into the 70s in the southern Panhandles by Tuesday. There may be another system come mid-week, but there is timing differences as well as differences in precipitation potential. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 Low ceilings and precipitation chances are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hours. Low ceilings of MVFR to LIFR will remain throughout the entire TAF cycle. Rain showers will be possible at all sites (potentially some snow showers at KDHT) with rain chances beginning around or after 12z. Lower visibility will be likely with showers over any terminal. Winds will be out of the north to northeast with gusts upwards of 30 kts. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 38 50 41 46 / 30 70 100 90 Beaver OK 41 51 37 47 / 30 50 90 100 Boise City OK 31 37 31 36 / 90 90 90 90 Borger TX 41 52 41 48 / 40 70 100 90 Boys Ranch TX 38 47 39 44 / 60 80 100 90 Canyon TX 37 50 40 48 / 30 80 100 90 Clarendon TX 42 53 45 51 / 10 70 100 90 Dalhart TX 33 41 33 40 / 80 80 100 90 Guymon OK 37 47 35 44 / 70 60 90 100 Hereford TX 38 49 40 46 / 40 80 100 80 Lipscomb TX 40 52 40 49 / 20 50 90 100 Pampa TX 41 51 41 48 / 20 60 90 90 Shamrock TX 42 55 44 54 / 10 50 90 90 Wellington TX 45 56 46 56 / 10 50 90 90 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for TXZ001. OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for OKZ001. && SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 212 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-070815- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 212 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Accumulating snowfall could start tonight in the far western OK Panhandle. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A major storm system is expected to bring heavy rains to much of the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles with the potential for heavy snow in the far northwestern combined Panhandles tomorrow into Friday night. Embedded thunderstorms may be possible mainly late Thursday into Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A sharp gradient in snowfall occurred across Dallam County. The heaviest snowfall and highest accumulations occurred across the western part of Dallam County, with Texline measuring 11 inches. Further to the east, Dalhart mainly observed rain with perhaps some light snow mixed in at times.
Marshall Drive (County Road P) was closed due to part of the road being washed out one mile east of where the pavement section of the road ends. Road P was washed out at Elk Creek. The flood was likely 200 feet wide where the road crosses Elk Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1223217, 1223218.