Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Georgia, November 7, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
135 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 121 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The region will be between high pressure to the northeast, and
Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf Tonight. A trough will extend north
from Rafael across inland counties. Moisture is converging in the
onshore flow over coastal SE GA this afternoon. A few embedded
thunderstorms will be possible over SE GA as this activity
converges. This area is expected to gradually drift further inland
and weaken this evening, before dissipating Tonight.

Lows Tonight around 70 will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Conditions dry out a little at the end of the week and heading into
the weekend as Hurricane Rafael moves further west into the Gulf
of Mexico, pulling some of that tropical moisture out with it.
PWAT values remain between 1.5 to 1.8 inches with a frontal
boundary slowly making its way south through Georgia and into our
area begining Saturday morning. Just enough moisture and
instability from the frontal boundary and diurnal heating could be
enough to see a few scattered showers over southeast Georgia and
along the Florida coast Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight
inland temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, sticking in the low
70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Continued onshore flow and lingering moisture Sunday and Monday
will produce some continued chances of widely scattered showers in
mainly along the coast and frontal boundary as it stalls near the
Florida Georgia border. Conditions dry out significantly by
midweek with little to no chance of precipitation and mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Daytime high temperatures will stay in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s at the
begining of the week and are expected to cool into the 50s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Conditions improving early this period to prevailing VFR
with showers around for most of the TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. The exception will be at KSSI where a few thunderstorms
will be possible, with restrictions in rain and stratus continuing.
Fog is expected to produce restrictions overnight and continue a few
hours after sunrise inland. Conditions across area TAFS are
expected to improve to VFR Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

A weakening ridge of high pressure will be located to the
northeast of the region through Tonight, as Hurricane Rafael spins
in the Gulf. Another high will build to the northwest Friday, then
to the north Saturday, while Rafael continues a westward movement
across the Gulf. The high will build more toward the northeast on
Sunday, as Rafael is expected to continue to spin over Gulf.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Friday
              NE FL: High, Today, Moderate Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  82  66  80 /  30  10   0  10
SSI  73  80  70  79 /  40  10   0  10
JAX  71  85  68  82 /  20  10   0  10
SGJ  73  83  70  81 /  10  10   0  10
GNV  69  85  67  84 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  69  87  68  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&