NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 9:36 PM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 9:36 PM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
936 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2023
Predominant zonal flow along the generally straight jet stream over
Wyoming will keep the flow of moisture into the region. The next in
the series of shortwaves to impact the region will move into the
west this evening and overnight tonight. This shortwave in
conjunction with the jet will draw significant moisture into western
Wyoming. Up to 2 inches of liquid (SWE) is possible across some of
the western mountain locations in 1 to 2 feet of snow. Western
valleys will also get a significant amount of snow, however exact
amounts are a little trickier there due to warmer surface
temperatures. This is one of the warmest systems we've seen so far
this winter (it is March, after all) and resulting surface temps will
be in the low to middle 30s across Jackson Valley and especially
Star Valley Friday afternoon. This will raise snow levels to near
7000 feet, and at the valley level, rain could even mix in with snow
at times.
The warmer temperatures will help to limit impacts across the
valleys, however, mountain passes will not likely be so lucky,
meaning travel will be quite hazardous across Teton, Togwotee, and
Salt Passes Friday and Friday night. This is not only a result of
the heavy snow, but also very strong winds. Winds will increase
through the day Friday, with gusts 50 to 60 mph across the mountains
by late afternoon. In the valleys, winds will also be gusty with
gusts 20 to 30 mph, locally up to 40 mph. The warmer temps during
the day will reduce the blowing and drifting snow threat, but not
completely eliminate it. Exposed areas could certainly see blowing
and drifting snow Friday afternoon through Friday night, despite the
heavy, wet nature of the snow. These very strong winds will continue
into the overnight hours, diminishing towards sunrise Saturday.
Snow will also be possible across the south. The upper Green River
Basin and southern Lincoln County could see 3 to 6 inches, with
locally higher amounts towards Sage Junction and Cokeville and
towards Pinedale and the Bondurant Valley. Sweetwater County will
also see some snow, locally up to 1 inch, however, especially
towards eastern Sweetwater County, winds will be quite gusty with
gusts 30 to 40 mph expected. This could create some travel concerns
along I-80, despite otherwise light snowfall amounts.
East of the Divide, wind will be the main concern. Flow is not
favorable for snow to make it over the Divide and significant
downslope flow will not help either. West-southwest 700mb flow will
increase to 50 to 60kts by late Friday afternoon, resulting in some
quite strong winds across favored areas including South Pass,
Jeffrey City, and Casper. The High Wind Watches have been upgraded
to Warnings with the afternoon update for the Rattlesnake/Green
Mountain and Natrona County zones. Will also need to keep an eye on
the Lander Foothills and Cody Foothills for the wind threat,
however, flow appears to be too westerly to fully favor Lander for
high wind.
With the wind, basins that have not previously fully mixed out their
cold pools, will likely do so Friday. This includes the Wind River
and Bighorn Basins. Temperatures are expected to climb above
freezing in those areas. With the strong, warm, downsloping winds,
could see a bit of melting of snow/ice Friday. This is a bit of a
concern as rivers could see some minor rises as a result, however,
temperatures will quickly dip back below freezing overnight so the
melting should be short-lived and we are not looking at any flood
concerns at this time.
This storm will move out of the region Saturday, with both snow and
the strong winds diminishing by sunrise and snow ending completely
by midday. Ridging will build through the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. This means that those colder basin locations
may continue to see temps climb above freezing during the day
through at least Tuesday with temperatures around 50 possible across
the Cody Foothills and Johnson County Monday and especially Tuesday.
These temperatures are still 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but it
will certainly feel warmer than we've been all winter. These warmer
temps will however increase the flooding concern as several days
with highs well above freezing will help to ripen snowpack.
Luckily, we are not looking at extended warmth and overnight temps
will drop below freezing, limiting the melting. As a result, our
flooding concerns will remain low for now.
Other than some light snow showers across the far west, the rest of
the weekend and into early next week looks pretty dry and quiet
overall. Models are progging the next storm for Tuesday/Wednesday.
Again, in generally westerly flow, it looks to be a mainly west of
the Divide event, but will continue to watch this as we get into the
weekend and early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 936 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2023
West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals.
Widespread snow will spread over much of the area except for
Sweetwater County between 06Z and 12Z. IFR conditions are
expected at KBPI, KJAC and KPNA. High resolution models then show
a potential break in snow between 14Z and 18Z especially for KBPI
and KPNA. Will show this break in the TAF. Confidence in this
occurring at KJAC is less certain so will keep IFR conditions
there. If this break does occur, IFR conditions will once again
develop by around 18Z. LIFR conditions are likely at those
terminals as times, with a decent chance of a prolonged period
IFR/LIFR conditions at KJAC. Airfield minimums are expected as
well at those terminals, but especially at KJAC at times. The snow
over those 3 terminals should end between 02Z and 06Z Saturday.
KRKS has the best chance of snow and associated MVFR/IFR
conditions between 21Z Friday and 06Z Saturday. VFR conditions are
expected to develop at all terminals between 04Z and 08Z
Saturday. Windy southerly flow is expected to develop over much of
the area between 16Z and 20Z Friday with weakening in the Upper
Green River Basin by around 00Z Saturday, but KJAC and KRKS will
remain breezy for much of the night. Mountains will be obscured
much of the time through at least 03Z Saturday.
East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals.
VFR conditions with mainly considerable mid-level cloudiness
through 18Z. The exception will be at KCPR where ceilings could
lower to around 5 kft agl by around 12Z. Not out of the question
for some morning fog, but confidence is not enough to warrant for
VCFG at any terminal at the moment.
Will have VCSH at KLND beginning around 12Z for the spill over
snowfall becoming within around 10 miles west of the terminal.
This snow is not expected to reach KLND. The main issue at KLND
between 12Z and 18Z will be LLWS as surface winds become light
northeast with strong southwest winds just above the surface. The
strong southwest winds are expected to mix down to KLND around
18Z. Very strong southwest winds are expected to develop at KCPR
between 12Z and 18Z. Gusts to around 45 knots are possible at this
terminal. Breezy winds are also expected at the other terminals
Friday afternoon, before the winds weaken between 00Z and 06Z
Saturday.
Scattered snow showers are possible mainly between 21Z Friday and
03Z Saturday especially at KCPR, KLND, and KRIW. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions could occur, but will not prevail these conditions. VFR
conditions with decreasing cloudiness after 06Z Saturday.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2023
Significant wet, heavy snow expected beginning tonight across the
west and continuing through Friday night. Very strong winds with
gusts 50 to 60 mph expected across zones 279/280/289 as well as
286/288 Friday and Friday night. Snow and wind end Saturday. Warmer
and mostly dry through the rest of the weekend and into early next
week with light snow showers possible across the far west. The next
storm system is expected to impact the region Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Saturday for
WYZ001-012>015-023>025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Saturday
for WYZ002-026-027.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Saturday for
WYZ019-020.
&&
DISCUSSION...Hensley
AVIATION...Murrell
FIRE WEATHER...Hensley