NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 3:11 PM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 10, 3:11 PM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023
Key messages:
1) Snow increases in coverage and intensity across the Continental
Divide tonight and continues through the day Saturday.
2) Strong wind potential over the Eastern Mtns tonight, especially
for the southern Sangre de Cristo Mtns into the S I-25 corridor.
3) Cooler with showers developing across the SE Plains Saturday.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
moderate to strong westerly flow across the region as as a broad
upper trough is translating across the West Coast attm. Water vapor
imagery is also indicating abundant available moisture streaming
across the West Coast through the Great Basin and into western
Colorado at this time, with GOES data indicating PWATS running
150 to 250 percent of normal within this plume. Regional radars
are indicating precipitation spreading across western Colorado
and into the Central and Southwest Mtns, with a few echoes spreading
across the Upper Arkansas River valley attm. Further east, seeing
bouts of wave clouds spreading across the southeast Plains, with
pockets of breezy westerly winds across high mountain valleys and
southeast mountains, with some breezy southerly winds across the
far southeast plains. Despite the bouts of clouds, temperatures
have warmed into the mid 50s to mid 60s across the plains this
afternoon.
For Tonight and Saturday...westerly flow continues to increase
across the region through Saturday morning, as the West Coast
trough continues to translate across the Great Basin and Rockies.
With said embedded moisture within the orographic flow, will continue
to see snow increasing in coverage and intensity across the ContDvd
tonight, which looks to continue through the day Saturday. Current
grids indicate 10 to 20 inches of snow across the Western Mosquito
and Eastern Sawatch ranges and Eastern San Juan Mtns, with locally
higher amounts on west facing slopes. This snow, combined with gusty
westerly winds of 30-60 mph, will create dangerous travel conditions
across the higher mountain passes through the day Saturday, with
current Winter Storm Warnings still looking good. Other winter
weather advisories for the for lower elevations of Lake County,
the La Garita Mtns, the lower elevations west of the ContDvd and
the higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns will also remain
in place.
Further east, breezy to windy conditions to persist over and near
the higher terrain tonight, with a few models still indicting a small
window of downslope winds across the lee slopes of southern Sangre
de Cristo Mtns. However, with models differing on this marginal set
up for downslope winds, will not be issuing a high wind warning,
through later shifts will continue to monitor. The passing wave will
spread scattered showers, across the high mtn valleys through the
eastern mts and immediate adjacent plains later tonight and through
the day Saturday, with showers spreading south and west across the
plains along the passing systems cold front Saturday morning and
afternoon. The timing of this front continues to be faster and
with the front likely moving across the Palmer Dvd late Saturday
morning, and with that said, I have cooled high temperatures
areawide. Still, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s, showers
across the plains to be mainly rain, with some light snow
accumulations possible across the higher terrain of the Pikes
Peak region and southeast mts.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023
Key Messages:
1) Active weather expected through the weekend with rain and snow
chances for the plains and a Winter Storm Warning in effect for much
of the Continental Divide.
2) Warmer and dry for Monday and Tuesday.
3) Our next potential weather system arrives mid-week.
Saturday Night through Sunday..
The upper low transitions across the northern plains Saturday night
into Sunday morning, bringing us continued light to moderate
snowfall across the Continental Divide, and rain changing over to
snow across the plains. Much of Sunday's precipitation on the plains
will be upslope enhanced, with day time high temperatures on Sunday
looking much cooler than Saturday as well. Both the NAM and the
Canadian suggest a reinforcing shot of precip for Sunday night into
early Monday morning, with the passage of shortwave energy embedded
in weak ridging aloft. Overall accumulations for Sunday and into
Monday look to be light, with generally 3 to 5 inches of new snow
for the central mountains, the La Garitas, and the San Juans
wrapping up Sunday evening, 2 to 4 inches for the Sangres Sunday
afternoon to Monday morning, and 3 inches or less for the Wet
Mountains, Teller county, and the Palmer Divide. If this trend with
the extra push of shortwave energy and associated snowfall over our
eastern mountains continues, may need to extend the Winter Weather
Advisory we have in place for the Sangres until midnight or even
into the early morning hours of Monday.
Monday and Tuesday..
We remain under weak riding and northwesterly flow aloft for Monday,
with light snow continuing in our central mountains and clearing sky
conditions for our plains. Daytime highs will likely remain in the
50s on our plains with light diurnally driven winds. By Tuesday our
flow becomes more zonal, allowing for dry, westerly, downsloping
winds. This pattern will keep precipitation chances minimal, even in
the high country. It will also allow many of us to warm into the 60s
for daytime highs. We could see some spotty critical fire weather
conditions on Tuesday afternoon as well, especially across our gap
flow prone areas, though at this time winds look to be very marginal.
Wednesday Onwards..
By midweek our next potential storm arrives, though at this time
there is much uncertainty associated with it. Ensembles are in
agreement that some sort of trough will push through the region from
Wednesday into Thursday, though there are still considerable
differences in the shape of the trough, along with timing and
location differences as well. At this point, CMCE members show the
highest amplitude, and deterministic runs of the Canadian even try
to close the low off over the four corners region. The GEFS shows a
much weaker and faster wave, and the EPS is somewhat in the middle
of both. For now, it appears evident that a system will bring active
weather to the region, though at this point impacts are still
unknown. Behind the system, we likely stay cooler than average for
our Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MST Fri Mar 10 2023
VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB through tonight with
bouts of mtn wave clouds spreading across the region. Breezy
westerly winds to mix down across the terminals through the late
afternoon. Gusty westerly winds to continue overnight across
the higher terrain west of the terminals, with potential for llws
at COS, with expected southeast winds through the evening into
the overnight. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to
develop at COS and PUB early Saturday morning, ahead of a cold
front across eastern Colorado, which could bring MVFR conditions
with rain and snow showers.
Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS through this taf period,
with gusty southwest winds continuing through the late afternoon.
Strong westerly flow aloft will bring showers to the higher
terrain west and east of the terminal, with the potential for
a few isolated showers drifting across the terminal, leading
to possible brief MVFR cigs and vis. Gusty southwest winds to
develop once again Saturday morning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-061.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Saturday for COZ059.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Saturday for COZ064-067.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ066.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ073-075.
&&
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW