NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 5:09 AM MST, 9 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 5:09 AM MST, 9 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
509 AM MST Sun Feb 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Valley inversions will gradually diminish today
across the northern valleys. A winter storm will impact much of
the state today into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...A progressive shortwave ridge
over the area last evening has shifted to the east as an upstream
storm system arrives onto the West Coast. High clouds have been over
the area for much of the night, and are just clearing out this
morning. The clouds have kept temperatures from cooling much thus
far, but now that skies are clearing, there will be a few hours of
more efficient radiative cooling before sunrise, but still, many
valleys will start the day with temperatures not too dissimilar from
yesterday. Southwest flow aloft has begun to pick up ahead of the
storm. Thus far, enhanced winds have been realized mainly over the
higher terrain and some southwestern Utah valleys.
Southerly winds are not expected to pick up much across the northern
valleys today, as the strongest observed pressure falls are over
west-central Utah, which corresponds to where most models place the
surface low. As such, northern Utah will not see a supportive MSLP
gradient. This means that winds can not be expected to help mix out
the northern valleys this morning. However, cooler air aloft will
quickly arrive this afternoon, and inversions should start turning
over as the cap weakens.
Precipitation will be supported by a 125kt upper jet and H7
baroclinic zone which will arrive across northwest Utah by mid-
morning, crossing SLC around midday. Areas near the Idaho border,
where inversions remain quite strong, are expected to see
precipitation type as all snow. Additionally, road temperatures
remain quite cold there, in the teens to low 20s in the Cache Valley
and from near Brigham City northward along I-15 and I-84. As such,
snow is expected to accumulate on area roadways in these areas.
Despite relatively low forecast snow amounts, have decided to add a
Winter Weather Advisory to the Cache Valley and eastern Box Elder
County owing to expected road impacts, in coordination with UDOT.
Farther south along the Wasatch Front, road temperatures are
currently warmer, and air temperatures are forecast to rise above
freezing this afternoon. Even though precipitation type will likely
be mostly snow or at best a rain/snow mix for a few hours before
transitioning to snow, the thought is that road snow accumulations
will be increasingly harder to come by the farther south one gets
from the Brigham City or Tremonton area.
The baroclinic zone will slide into central and southern Utah later
in the afternoon through the evening hours, with precipitation
continuing to develop along it. Some models suggest that
frontogenesis increases as it shifts south, which could bring an
increase in precipitation rates. However, most west-central through
southwest Utah valleys are expected to see better wind-aided mixing
and relatively warm temperatures today, so valley snow amounts will
be limited there. All mountains in Utah are expected to see
accumulating snow, most significant across the north.
As the baroclinic zones exits the area, there will be a relative
lull in precipitation for the overnight hours. Then, an embedded
shortwave disturbance near the mean trough axis will rotate into
northern Utah, bringing a reinforcing cold front into the area. This
will bring a renewed burst of snow to portions of northern Utah. The
timing of this could impact the Monday morning commute along
portions of the Wasatch Front. Lingering orographics across mainly
the northern and central mountains will persist through the
afternoon Monday before snow tapers off during the evening when the
flow turns anticyclonic and a ridge starts to build back into the
area.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...Little change in the big picture
through the long term with this morning's update sans a few minor
changes in the track of Wednesday's shortwave trough. Short lived
ridging and a brief reprieve from colder temps under blue sky and
limited potential for inversion development should lead to a fairly
pleasant day for much of the state including the northern valleys.
An unimpactful grazer of a trough is expected to slide through along
the northern Utah border, now trending further south among much of
the model suite, increasing chances for snowfall in the northern
valleys and slightly increasing forecast snowfall amounts in the
northern mountains. At best, snowfall would reach as far south as
the Salt Lake Valley and the western Uintas, while producing little
more than a cloud storm further south. Precipitation would start
late morning Wednesday and largely wrap up by the late evening.
While the quick hitting shortwave trough brings with it a
significant reinforcing shot of cold air, by Friday morning an
amplifying but transient ridge will begin to build over the
intermountain west before shifting east into the plains. While
normally this would incite heightened concern about another
prolonged period of northern valley inversions, ensemble forecasts
remain confident that yet another storm is right on its heels.
Nearly the entire model suite carries a deep trough off the
California coast by Saturday evening, with a few key differences.
CMCE cuts this feature off from the flow and likely allows ridging
to shift onshore as the northern branch splits off and the low
stagnates. A less than ideal scenario for the forecast area, but
supported by an overwhelming minority of the total membership and
nearly entirely attributed to the CMCE. Worth noting the
deterministic EC also latches on to this setup along with 20 EPS
members... so cannot totally discredit it. GEFS and the majority of
the EPS keep the pattern progressive though disagree with its
eastward speed. Notably, the GEFS brings this feature onshore nearly
a full day earlier, with precipitation and wind impacts felt across
the southwestern portion of the state by Sunday morning.
Never ideal to see stagnation of the pattern during the winter
season as suggested by the cutoff/splitting scenario above, though
upstream, the upper level pattern remains energetic and should
prevent a long-term stall. Still, worth keeping an eye on the
development of the cutoff feature and its implications beyond the
current long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Last morning of haze-driven IFR potential before
our next storm should finally scour the valley air by late
afternoon...though low CIGS and VSBY due to building cloud decks and
periods of moderate snowfall could cause short-lived interruption to
otherwise VFR conditions. Precipitation will creep in from the
northwest this morning, likely reaching the terminal by 19Z. Trended
towards higher confidence for snowfall from the onset of
precipitation but could see intermittent periods of rain/snow mix
early on. Precipitation shifts east and dissipates around 23Z but
light showers could linger until 01Z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Areas of periodic FZFG this
morning should become less of a problem in the northern valleys as
cloud cover builds in before sunrise, though will still struggle
with VSBY reductions due to haze as late as mid-afternoon.
Precipitation begins shortly after sunrise for the NW portion of the
forecast area, spreading across the northern half late in the
morning, and the southern half by early evening through the early
overnight. Accordingly, reduced CIGS/VIS can be expected as
precipitation, likely light to moderate snow, moves over terminals.
MVFR conditions most likely, though IFR can't be ruled out during
heavier precip.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening
for UTZ103-107.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 5 PM MST Monday for
UTZ108-110>112.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Monday for UTZ113-117.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Monday for UTZ125.
WY...None.
&&
Cheng/Wessler
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity