A front moved over the panhandle from the west with increasing rates that caused snow to accumulate even at temperatures above freezing, then becoming mixed or changing to rain near sea level.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A front moved over the panhandle from the west with increasing rates that caused snow to accumulate even at temperatures above freezing, then becoming mixed or changing to rain near sea level.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 5, 6:33 AM AKST, 8 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
633 AM AKST Sun Feb 5 2023
.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis show one
system moving inland with the next one approaching from the W.
Weak ridging between these systems is aiding Sly flow over the
panhandle and providing WAA across the Icy Strait corridor early
this morning. Onshore flow will maintain shower activity across
the region through the morning, kept mention of snow over the N
central panhandle but little to no accumulations expected. Model
solutions remain in good agreement with the break between systems
being brief with precip chances and winds increasing this
afternoon into evening across the region. Gales will develop over
the gulf today with a period of storm force winds near Cape
Suckling late this afternoon. Winds over the inner channels will
also begin to increase this afternoon with near gales to gales
over much of the Inside Passage by this evening. No change to
winter statements, with 4-7 inch accumulations expected for the
Haines and Klondike highways. Kept forecast of snow through the
night, but WAA will decrease snow ratios to limit accumulations
and may result in a change to mix precip late tonight near sea
level. Biggest change to inherited forecast was to change precip
to mixed for the Icy Strait corridor and limit accumulations to an
inch or two.
.LONG TERM...Snow and rain are in the forecast for much of the
long term, as a series of systems move through SE AK with the
continuing active weather pattern.
Aloft, the upper level pattern will continue to maintain the
ridge/trough setup, steering system after system into the area.
The most recent of these systems will be diminishing in coverage
and intensity through the day on Monday as it departs the
panhandle, being replaced by lingering chances of precipitation as
onshore flow continues in its wake. A weak wave may try to move
through Monday night before being followed by a somewhat stronger
wave which will arrive on Tuesday. Operational runs continue to
disagree on the exact track of the parent low associated with this
wave, with some favoring the S half of the panhandle while others
anticipate precipitation spreading throughout the area. Where the
wave does impact, anticipate that accumulating snow could be a
possibility, though exact snow totals are not yet set in stone.
Agreement is somewhat better on the potential for a strong system
to move N and impact the panhandle Thursday and Friday. Although
run to run consistency on the exact placement of the system's
parent low remains something of a challenge, the possibility of a
front moving into the area is looking increasingly likely. At this
time, it does look like this system could deliver potentially
impactful snow totals across the area, as the front's positioning
perpendicular to the panhandle would favor cooler and drier air to
race in ahead of it, helping to encourage snow melt cooling.
Models are currently caught between placing this system at gale
force and storm force, but at this time, will continue to place
the system at gale force until confidence has grown in the exact
track and potential strength of the system, as changes in overall
intensity are still evident between model runs.
Another wave related to the previous system may arrive on Friday,
before the potential for a brief break in the active weather
occurs late Friday or Saturday. Past this point, the potential
exists for another front to move into the area from W late
Saturday or Sunday, though diverging operational and ensemble
guidance make determining details a challenging prospect.
The main changes to the forecast were focused around the fine
tuning of the departure of the Sunday Monday system, as well as on
building some details where confidence was high enough for the
Thursday/Friday event. The GFS and Euro operational models were
favored through much of the time frame as their broader features
remained largely in decent agreement, with the upper level
steering flow in both maintaining some run to run consistency. The
Canadian model was something of an outlier today, as evidenced by
a positively tilted upper level trough over the area on Friday in
contrast to the negatively tilted trough favored by both the GFS
and the Euro. Forecaster confidence is average.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Monday/...Conditions over the majority of
the Panhandle look to improve from MVFR to VFR CIG and VIS
conditions around mid-morning. Another low and associated front
begin their push into southeast Alaska this afternoon, decreasing
CIG and VIS conditions back down into the MVFR category.
Conditions look to begin to periodically dip down into the IFR
category along with heavier precipitation and lowered ceilings.
For the Yakutat area and the NE Gulf Coast, the lowered conditions
will arrive by mid-morning as that area is poised farther west,
closer to the weather front, making it arrive there, first. LLWS
magnitudes centered at around 2 kft will progressively increase to
between around 40 and 50 kt through the 24 hour forecast period
as the frontal system approaches and moves over the Panhandle. SFC
winds over the area will increase to relatively breezy and gusty
values over the same timeframe, as well.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
Monday for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind this evening for AKZ328.
Areal Flood Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330.
Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ330-
332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
Gale Warning for PKZ031-033>036-041>043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-032-053.
&&
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...JLC
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Retired NWS employee measured 5 inches of snow between 3pm and 750pm. Estimated another 2 inches fell before it changed to rain around midnight.
Morning DOT Haines Highway report from 424am on the 6th state there was approximately 5 to 8 inches of snow on the road. Trained spotters from Mud Bay, south of Haines, reported a range of 6 to 11 inches fell over a 12 hour period.
Morning DOT Klondike Highway report from 9am on the 6th stated there was 6 to 10 inches of snow between MP 8 to the border. Blowing snow and heavy drifting was also reported between MP 12 and the border.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1068535, 1068537, 1068536.