The flip of the generally wet and often stormy pattern of spring 2023 that began on June 9th, reached into dangerous heat territory starting on June 12th. Local Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices of 111 to 115) arrived on this day, with increasing heat index values persisting through the remainder of the month in most areas.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The flip of the generally wet and often stormy pattern of spring 2023 that began on June 9th, reached into dangerous heat territory starting on June 12th. Local Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices of 111 to 115) arrived on this day, with increasing heat index values persisting through the remainder of the month in most areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 11:40 AM CST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 The story remains the same: 500 mb high pressure building north and east out of Mexico will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. This will produce dry weather with well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures today through Tuesday. Finally, an important note about the short term portion of the forecast. Actual realized daytime high temperatures for the past couple of days have not been reaching expected values. This could be due to a few factors: a less-influential mid-level high, mid to high level cloudiness, abundant soil moisture from several consecutive weeks of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, etc. As a result, manually knocked high temperatures down a few degrees for today and Tuesday. Additionally, chose CONSShort for short term dewpoint temperatures, as these values have also been overforecast for the past couple of days. The combined result of these selected adjustments means that heat indices will be close to, but not at, established Heat Advisory criteria through the next 48 hours. As a result, will instead issue a Special Weather Statement to advise of expected heat index values. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 The 500mb ridge pivots north then settles east across Deep South Texas mid week through the weekend as surface high pressure sits across the Gulf. This bumps heights toward 595 dam and will allow temperatures to gain a few degrees, near record highs, through the remainder of the long term period. Expect Heat Indices to top out near 110-115 and locally higher every afternoon, driving Heat Advisories through the period, although model guidance has not been handling dewpoints very well. Have trimmed dewpoints a little lower, but potentially not enough. Have also nudged BRO highs a degree or two higher Wednesday through Saturday, topping off at 100 Thursday and Friday with potentially more of a southerly or briefly SSW wind. Fire weather should also be monitored through the period, with RH values dropping below 40 percent and 20 foot winds becoming breezy each afternoon. Still feel most areas will fall below any fire weather criteria, but this may change by mid week as fuels dry more. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Expecting VFR conditions for the rest of the day and some MVFR conditions during parts of the overnight hours as well. Winds will continue to be mostly out of the south and could be breezy at times during the day tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Now through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce moderate to breezy winds and generally moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution is likely, especially for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore, and a Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out for this area on Tuesday. Tuesday Night through Sunday...Southeasterly winds will maintain Small Craft Caution conditions each afternoon into early evening across the bay and nearshore waters, shifting further offshore each night. Small Craft Advisories are possible, mainly on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 93 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 97 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 100 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 104 76 108 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...64-Katz
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-130915- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Heat Index values of 105 to 110 degrees are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Heat Index values between 110 and 116 degrees are expected during the afternoon hours of the period. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and an Excessive Heat Warning cannot be ruled out. An elevated risk of rip currents and longshore currents is possible at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-130915- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories will be possible along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
The McAllen/Miller International Airport AWOS reported heat index rising to 113 just before 2 PM CDT, continuing at or above 111 through 5 PM CDT. (interpolated between higher observations). The peak heat index was 113, at around 2 PM CDT.
The Brownsville/South Padre Island Int'l Airport reported heat index rising to 111 before 2 PM CDT, continuing at or above 111 through 430 PM CDT. (interpolated between higher observations). The peak heat index was 115, at 3 PM CDT. Harlingen/Valley Int'l Airport, a bit farther inland, fell just shy (110 degrees).
The South Texas International Airport AWOS in north-central Hidalgo Countyreported heat index rising to 111 at around 130 PM CDT, continuing at or above 111 through around 45 PM CDT (interpolated between higher observations). The peak heat index was just under 114, between 255 and 315 PM CDT.
The Falcon Lake RAWS location, 28 miles northwest of Roma, reported several hours of heat index between 111 and 119 degrees. The Texas Water Development Board mesonet site at Rancho Los Comitas in far northern Starr County reported peak heat index between 106 and 108 during the same period. By proxy, it is assumed that populated Starr County locations along the Rio Grande fell somewhere in between for several hours, ranging from 111 to 113.
The Brooks County Airport AWOS reported heat index rising to 111 at around 2 PM CDT, continuing at or above 111 through around 445 CDT (interpolated between higher observations). The peak heat index was 112, at 335 PM CDT and again at 435 PM CT.
By proxy between the Brooks County Airport AWOS and the Kingsville Naval Air Station observing platform (20 miles north of the Kenedy County border, heat index values likely reached 111 or higher from around 2 PM CDT, continuing at or above 111 through around 545 CDT (interpolated between higher observations). The peak heat index was likely between 113 and 115.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1116333, 1116340, 1116330, 1116364, 1116326, 1116346.