Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 12 to 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Through Tuesday/

Outside of cooling areas north of Hwy 380 down a few degrees on
cool side of the boundary with NE winds, clouds, and showers (per
coordination with OUN), no other big changes were done from the
previous forecast below.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Early Week Period/

With Day 4 in a row with severe storms somewhere across our CWA,
we now go on to focus on later today, or more like this evening as
our Day 5 with yet another round(s) as more shortwave impulses
lift out of the Southwest U.S./Great Basin and help to break down
and dampen the crest of the upper ridge over North-Central TX.
Modest mid level height falls should help draw the cool front
draped along the I-20 corridor back northward toward the Red River
as we move through the morning hours. Forecast challenges abound
today as an initial shortwave later this morning and ongoing
southerly low level flow and warm advection overrun the shallow
frontal slope from around Hwy 380 up into southern OK. This will
likely produce non-severe showers and storms with the best chances
across the immediate Red River Valley. Mid level lapse rates near
or just below 7 deg C/km and 50 knot 0-6km flow may be enough for
a robust, strong storm or two with sub-severe hail, as the fairly
wet and showery environment with low level northeast flow help to
hold this area to between the upper 70s to mid 80 for today's
highs. In the pseudo warm sector south of the shallow low level
front, highs in the 90s will prevail with the hottest temperatures
occurring from the Big Country down into western Central Texas
with values between 95 and 100 degrees. Heat index values across
this southwest quarter of the CWA will be between 102-106 degrees
from Hearne to Breckenridge and to the southwest.

The GFS wants to cool pool the boundary back southward toward the
I-20 corridor by early this evening, while the NAM/RAP keep it
about another row of counties further north. Considering surface-
based instability to our north isn't going to be high at all, I
doubt the GFS solution comes to fruition and will lean with the
higher, low level resolution solutions of the NAM/RAP. A more
vigorous mid level impulse arrives just before 00z (around peak
heating once again) and this is where we could see isolated to
scattered initial supercells once again considering the strong
deep layer shear and even seeing 0-1km values upwards to 20 kts
from the south for good storm organization, while feeding off very
high surface-based instability from I-20 and the DFW Metroplex
once again thanks to the seasonably hot temperatures and rich
surface dew points in the lower 70s. MLCAPE values between
2500-3500 J/KG will coincide with steepening lapse rates up to
near 8 deg C/km once again for the production of very large hail
and damaging winds across particularly western North and Central
Texas where a surface low/triple-point shift toward the Colorado
River Valley. This so happens to be where a Slight Risk for severe
storms will be in place once again, except I'll even add an
isolated tornado risk as a mode considering the intense 0-1km
inflow noted above.

As a LLJ of 25-40 kts develops after nightfall across Central and
western North Texas, I expect storm mode to transition to either a
broken linear MCS or severe storm clusters moving southeast across
parts of Central Texas after 02z once again, before dissipating by
midnight and after as synoptic-scale subsidence takes hold and the
cap aloft re-establishes in wake of this second shortwave of the
day. About the only area that I'll maintain some convective
chances overnight will be across our northeast counties thanks to
a third shortwave on a more northerly track eastward across OK/AR
and the Ozarks region. I couldn't rule out a strong storm here,
but nothing I would be too concerned about.

Like the previous days beforehand, Tuesday will start off quietly
with a weak surface low near or across our far northwest counties
of western North TX with a stationary boundary draped in a NW-SE
fashion from this low across the remainder of North TX. Like a
broken record, hot and unstable conditions will evolve southwest
of this boundary with highs 95-100 degrees and of course, hot,
humid with high surface-based instability. Mid level lapse rates
will average between 7-8 degrees C/Km. As more mid level energy
traverses east within the low amplitude ridge across North TX,
strong to severe storms (shocker we know) will develop once again
with (you guessed it) large hail, damaging winds, and as SPC
states in their Day2 Outlook, "a tornado or two" with any discrete
supercells.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023/
/Tuesday Night Into Early Next Week/

Ongoing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
will maintain a threat for hail and damaging winds until storms
eventually dissipate and/or exit the region around midnight. The
frontal boundary will linger across the area again on Wednesday,
resulting in near-normal temperatures with afternoon highs
climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s. The main exception to this
will be across our far southern zones where temperatures will
approach the triple digit mark.

The lingering front and a passing shortwave trough to our
northeast could result in a few showers and thunderstorms in
eastern North and Central Texas again on Wednesday. However,
coverage would be very isolated as better lift will be displaced
to our northeast. If storms are able to develop, they will have
abundant instability and shear to work with. Therefore, we'll have
yet another opportunity for strong to severe storms with hail and
damaging winds Wednesday afternoon through the evening.

The rest of the week will feature climbing temperatures as mid-
level ridging gradually increases. This will result in very hot
conditions across the region with widespread triple digit
temperatures expected Friday through the upcoming weekend. With
temperatures climbing to 102-105 degrees or greater with heat
index values soaring to 105-110+ degrees, there's a good chance
we'll need to introduce heat headlines within the next few days.
Make sure you're prepared for the upcoming heat!

With the mid-level ridge gradually building in, rain chances will
remain near zero for most of the area beyond Wednesday. The main
exception will be across our east/northeast which will have less
subsidence to battle as additional mid-level disturbances skirt
along the periphery of the ridge. Therefore, these locations will
maintain a low potential for showers and thunderstorms through the
remainder of the week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Challenges/Concerns:
Timing in MVFR (IFR at Waco Regional Airport) cigs by mid morning,
then best window for the next round of +TSRA/TSRA by this evening,
as we go on day 5 of potential TSRA/severe weather.

Early morning mid level shortwave now passing E of the D10/DFW
airports with subsidence allowing me to remove TS/CB from from
this morning, though I'll carry VCSH by/after 18z with stalled
front nearby the D10 airports. Currently, we are just north of the
boundary, but heating and next round of mid level height falls
ahead of the late day/evening mid level disturbance should mix
this front north toward the Red River with a dryline moving E
toward RPH/BKD/GZN by 00z.

These boundaries, along with a secondary mid level disturbance
are expected to be the foci for ISO-SCT +TSRA, with best
confidence for VCTS across the D10 airspace and DFW Metro between
01z-04z/05z, before subsidence arrives in wake of this
disturbance exiting the region. NE-ENE winds 7-13 kts are expected
while north of the stationary front. Surface winds then will
become ESE by 00z at 10-15 kts with higher gusts by 21z/after,
before becoming SE 7-10 kts overnight.

05/Marty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  71  94  71  93 /  40  40  20  20   5
Waco                97  74  98  73  95 /  10  20  10  10   5
Paris               80  67  86  67  87 /  60  60  40  40  20
Denton              86  69  92  67  92 /  60  40  20  20   5
McKinney            84  70  91  68  89 /  50  50  20  20  10
Dallas              91  72  95  71  93 /  40  40  20  20   5
Terrell             89  71  91  70  90 /  30  50  30  30  10
Corsicana           92  72  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  30   5
Temple              97  73  99  73  99 /   5  20   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       93  70  95  68  93 /  40  30  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
304 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
304 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of North and
Central Texas today. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds by this evening. An isolated tornado can't be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of North and
Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday during the afternoon and evening.
Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

Heat advisory criteria will likely be reached later this week with
heat index values near 105 to 110 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
842 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     Hail             5 NW Joshua             32.51N 97.43W
06/11/2023  E1.50 inch       Johnson            TX   Trained Spotter

            report of half inch to ping pong ball size
            hail near CR915 and FM1902.

&&

BG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
851 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             1 S Royse City          32.96N 96.33W
06/11/2023  M2.00 inch       Rockwall           TX   Trained Spotter

            report of several measured golf ball to ping
            pong ball size hail stones south of I-30
            near the intersection of FM548 and Rowdy Dr.

&&

BG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
924 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

TXZ094-095-121500-
Lamar TX-Fannin TX-
924 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Lamar
and northern Fannin Counties through 1000 AM CDT...

At 924 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Albany, or 15 miles east of Durant, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Lake Crook, Powderly, Sumner, Lake Gibbons, Crockett Lake,
Arthur City, Coffee Mill Lake, Camp Maxey, Pat Mayse Lake, Forest
Hill, Toco, Telephone, Duplex, Direct, Midcity, Sowells Bluff, Globe,
Brookston and Lamasco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9556 3388 9554 3389 9546 3356 9560
      3375 9630 3377 9629 3375 9619 3384 9615
      3384 9605 3386 9603 3384 9602 3387 9600
      3386 9595 3389 9594 3384 9584 3386 9581
      3384 9577 3389 9575 3388 9570 3394 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 286DEG 47KT 3390 9614

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

30

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
949 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Hail             2 SW Double Oak         33.05N 97.13W
06/11/2023  E4.25 inch       Denton             TX   Public

            photo shared via social media of 4.25 inch
            hail near the intersection of Cross Timbers
            Rd and Shiloh Rd in Flower Mound.

&&

BG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
955 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

TXZ095-121530-
Lamar TX-
955 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lamar County through
1030 AM CDT...

At 955 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Crook, or near Paris, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Blossom, Lake Crook, Pattonville, Arthur City, Powderly,
Sumner, Lake Gibbons, Camp Maxey, Pat Mayse Lake, Deport, Novice,
Toco, Sun Valley, Forest Chapel, Garretts Bluff, Midcity, Chicota,
Globe and Faught.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9556 3388 9554 3389 9552 3388 9551
      3389 9546 3387 9546 3387 9534 3389 9533
      3388 9531 3349 9531 3369 9580 3386 9579
      3384 9577 3386 9575 3389 9575 3388 9570
      3391 9564 3394 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 286DEG 49KT 3373 9562

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

30

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1026 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Hail             2 NW The Colony         33.11N 96.92W
06/11/2023  M2.75 inch       Denton             TX   Emergency Mngr

            report of tennis ball to baseball size hail
            in The Colony east of Lewisville Lake.

&&

BG