A low pressure system was centered over the Great Lakes region on June 12th, with an associated cold front extending to the south and west across central Mississippi during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong westerly flow interacting with the hot and strongly unstable air mass ahead of the front was enough to sustain afternoon thunderstorms as they became severe across southern portions of…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A low pressure system was centered over the Great Lakes region on June 12th, with an associated cold front extending to the south and west across central Mississippi during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong westerly flow interacting with the hot and strongly unstable air mass ahead of the front was enough to sustain afternoon thunderstorms as they became severe across southern portions of Mississippi and produced scattered wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 12:11 PM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 All is generally on track for this near term forecast update. We expect storms to develop later this afternoon as we heat up along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that extends west to east across southern portions of the forecast area. There is sufficient deep layer flow for storms to organize into a convective system and push through the lower Pine Belt/I-59 corridor by early evening. A lower-end severe wind/hail threat is still expected with this activity and will continue to advertise it in the HWO. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front nearly along our Highway 82 corridor that emanated from a surface low over western Pennsylvania. Local radars showed a few showers and thunderstorms south of the cold front that were noted weakening near the Interstate 20 corridor. This convection is expected to dissipate well before sunrise despite the cold front continuing to sag and eventually stall near Interstate 20 this morning. Satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the southern periphery of a large closed low centered over the Great Lakes region and downstream of a mid level ridge centered over the southern and central Plains. Together these features were maintaining northwest flow aloft across our region that models suggest will become nearly zonal by this evening. Daytime heating of the moist and unstable airmass along and south of the stalled cold front will again lead to the potential for strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. These storms are expected to move east southeast so the area at risk for severe storm develop this afternoon and early evening is generally along and south of Interstate 20. This area is also where our afternoon highs top out in the lower 90s again while the cooler drier air north of the cold front helps hold temperatures in the 80s. The day's convection is expected to diminish early this evening and there may even be a few hours lull in convection before additional storms start moving back into our northwest after midnight. Another shortwave rounding the base of the large closed low centered over the Great lakes region and embedded in our nearly zonal flow aloft is progged to develop storms west of our CWA during the evening and then spread east into our CWA after midnight. This activity is not expected to be severe but a strong wind gust or two along with a brief heavy downpour will be possible. /22/ Tuesday through next Monday... A subtropical ridge is extending east across the Southern Plains into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for warm gulf air to settle across our CWA leading to increasing temperatures and diurnal convection for much of Tuesday. Given the alignment of this slow moving west to east frontal boundary, some of the storms have the potential to become severe. Because of this, we will advertise a "Slight" risk for severe storms across the forecast area through Tuesday evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to golf ball size will the primary concerns with this system. Some of these storms could train across northern portions of central Mississippi, resulting in heavy rainfall across the southeast US. For this reason, we will continue to advertise a "Limited" threat for much of Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe threat should begin to move further east as the frontal boundary slowly shifts east across Alabama. After collaborating with the Storm Prediction Center, we have decided to advertise a "Slight" risk for severe storms for much of Wednesday. The exact timeframe of these storms is unknown at this time, however we will be keeping an close eye on this system and will provide updates as this system develops. Afternoon highs forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s across the southeast region later this week. A couple of locations could see heat indices reaching between 106-110 degrees mainly across the Pine Belt. In response to this, we will continue to advertise a "Elevated" risk for heat stress mainly for the southwest portion of our CWA. Make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors. Rain chances should continue into the weekend before tapering off by next Monday giving us a small break from the rain. /CRJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Timing of convective systems will be most critical in this forecast period...appears one round of SHRA/TS will impact mainly the HEZ-HBG corridor late this aftn/early evng, then another system will move along/north of HKS/JAN to MEI corridor late tonight through early Tue morning. Outside of convective systems, VFR conditions should prevail for the most part with tendency for late night/early morning stratus to develop. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 68 89 69 / 40 40 60 60 Meridian 87 66 88 68 / 40 50 70 70 Vicksburg 85 69 91 70 / 40 40 40 60 Hattiesburg 90 71 93 73 / 60 20 30 30 Natchez 88 70 91 71 / 60 10 30 30 Greenville 81 66 85 69 / 10 70 70 70 Greenwood 81 65 85 68 / 10 70 80 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && EC/22/EC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ035-036-040>046-050>052-130945- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Humphreys- Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Scott-Newton-Lauderdale- 435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Severe thunderstorms are possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of Interstate 20. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast area late this week into the weekend. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Wednesday night. MSZ018-019-025>034-037>039-130945- Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay- Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Attala-Winston-Noxubee- 435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Severe thunderstorms are possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of Interstate 20. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast area late this week into the weekend. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday through Wednesday night. LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>066-072>074-130945- Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke- Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis- Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Severe thunderstorms are possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of Interstate 20. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast area late this week into the weekend. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Wednesday night. 97 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
LAZ007-008-015-121915-
Richland LA-Morehouse LA-West Carroll LA-
138 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Morehouse,
northeastern Richland and southwestern West Carroll Parishes through
215 PM CDT...
At 137 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Collinston, or 8 miles southeast of Bastrop, moving southeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Oak Ridge around 155 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3289 9159 3276 9134 3270 9138 3269 9140
3267 9140 3242 9162 3256 9192 3261 9193
3266 9191 3267 9193 3266 9194 3268 9196
3271 9197 3270 9202 3271 9204 3270 9204
3269 9205 3273 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 300DEG 15KT 3269 9183
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JNESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
LAZ024-026-122045-
Concordia LA-Catahoula LA-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Concordia and southwestern Catahoula Parishes through 345 PM CDT...
At 244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayna, or 11 miles south of Jonesville, moving east at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Monterey around 330 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana...and southwestern Mississippi.
&&
LAT...LON 3130 9201 3129 9201 3130 9200 3133 9201
3161 9200 3156 9154 3127 9164 3125 9166
3117 9167 3120 9170 3120 9173 3123 9179
3127 9184 3126 9185 3130 9191 3127 9195
3123 9192 3125 9200 3127 9199 3129 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 282DEG 6KT 3146 9180
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
254 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
MSZ059-122100-
Jefferson MS-
254 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jefferson
County through 400 PM CDT...
At 254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fayette, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Fayette around 305 PM CDT.
Red Lick and Mcnair around 325 PM CDT.
Blue Hill around 400 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Mississippi.
&&
LAT...LON 3167 9118 3185 9113 3184 9092 3183 9084
3180 9084 3179 9085 3179 9084 3161 9089
3161 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 288DEG 7KT 3175 9108
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
MSZ066-122045-
Jones MS-
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jones County
through 345 PM CDT...
At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellisville, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Ellisville around 330 PM CDT.
Laurel around 340 PM CDT.
Tuckers Crossing around 345 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8936 3177 8929 3172 8895 3147 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 286DEG 7KT 3167 8925
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DBThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:57 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down on Champion Hill Road in Bolton.
A few trees and power lines were blown down in Jackson including a large tree that fell down onto power lines at the intersection of North State Street and Northside Drive, and a power line which was blown down at the intersection of Rose Street and Robinson Road.
A tree was blown down onto a power line along Farve Road.
A few trees were blown down in central Lamar County. One tree was blown onto MS Highway 589 near Ford Loop, and another tree was blown down near the intersection of Purvis Oloh Road.
A tree was blown down onto a power line near Old Highway 11 and MS Highway 589.
A tree was blown down onto Brooklyn-Janice Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1145021, 1145022, 1145193, 1145196, 1145214, 1145215.