Forest Service road 135 washed away near the intersection of Bear Creek and Antelope Pass Roads. Rainfall combined with snow melt continued to create flooding in the Salmon Challis National Forest.
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The episode as NWS PIH wrote it up.
Forest Service road 135 washed away near the intersection of Bear Creek and Antelope Pass Roads. Rainfall combined with snow melt continued to create flooding in the Salmon Challis National Forest.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 8:38 AM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 938 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023 .UPDATE...We are pushing out a quick update mainly for rainfall amounts and chance of rain through tonight. The highest amounts are expected across the central mountains, Snake Plain/Magic Valley and the bench areas from Burley to the Big Holes. Probability forecasts have 30-60% of over 0.50" in those areas this afternoon through late evening. The threat of flash flooding and river/stream spikes is there across the entire area today, along with small hail. Gusts or outflow boundaries with winds over 35 mph are possible, with a bullseye across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Showers and isolated storms are possible overnight, with a much lower risk of heavier rainfall. Keyes && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wed night. The next two days will feature thunderstorms, again, and some potentially heavy rainfall with them. For today, the probability of exceeding 0.50 of an inch is very high on the southeast side of the central Idaho mountains and in the Bear Lake basin area; for Tue, this focal point continues. Increased cloud cover for Tue will cool temperatures somewhat for afternoon highs, but keep overnight lows mild. On Wed, the pattern shifts eastward and the heaviest precipitation will be east of Interstate 15. Also, the thunderstorm coverage will trend to isolated or low scattered conditions. A cooler air mass will settle in, continuing the cooling trend everywhere. Wind should pick up in the mid- morning hours with a Lake Wind Advisory likely for the American Falls Reservoir as wind in the Snake River plain exceeds sustained 20-plus mph wind at that time. The main forecast issue is how the precipitation will affect rivers. The convective nature of this event has shown a large deviation for precipitation, as much as 0.70 of an inch of rain in 6 hours to less than 0.10 of an inch for the same location. Would not be surprised to see Flood Watches for flash flooding as the afternoon heating spikes up thunderstorm activity. Messick LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. Thursday marks the start of a brief break from the rainy/stormy pattern we've been stuck in for quite some time now. That doesn't mean we will completely dry out, but more of the area will see some dry time. For Thursday, PoPs are highest through the Eastern Highlands, but staying generally at or below 30 percent. We will finally be out of the WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday, too. This comes as we are in between two lows. One is to our south, over southern California, and the other is up to our north in Canada. We will primarily be influenced by west/northwest flow from the Canadian low. PoPs are even lighter on Friday, less than 20 percent through the Eastern Highlands, as the Canadian low lifts northward and the low to our south begins to weaken. Models begin to diverge more by Saturday. The ECMWF shows a mostly dry day while the GFS brings another round of showers and storms back to the area in the second half of the day. This is mainly due to how both models are handling the speed of the next low coming into the PNW with the ECMWF bringing it in a bit slower than the GFS. Either way, both models agree on the return of rain and storms next Sunday and continuing into early next week. Still, the 8 to 14 day outlook from the CPC shows a 40-60% chance of above average precipitation from the 19th-25th, so don't expect to totally dry out any time soon. It looks like we'll be breezy during the extended forecast period as these systems roll through the area. Look for wind gusts 20-30 mph each afternoon, though we likely get stronger winds early next week. Saturday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs generally in the 70s and then 60s next Monday. AMM AVIATION...12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. Generally VFR conditions are expected throughout the day once again, until we get the afternoon/evening convection going. Any patchy fog early this morning looks to stay outside of any terminals, though it may get close to PIH with the NBM 4.1 showing a 30% chance of CIGS less than or equal to 3000ft around 13Z/7AM. Rain and storms will get going again today with the HREF 24 hour thunder showing an 80 to 90 percent chance of storms at SUN, BYI, and PIH, and a 90 to 100 percent chance at IDA and DIJ. With storms, look for wind gusts up to 40 kts, heavy rainfall, and VIS/CIGs down to MVFR/IFR conditions. More storms will be on tap again for Tuesday afternoon/evening. AMM FIRE WEATHER...Low pressure will dominate that pattern, with the low center actually entering from the south during the day Tuesday. The cooling aloft will continue the instability, and with moisture in the air increasing as the low approaches, expect thunderstorms with light to very heavy precipitation. Flooding will be the primary concern, especially in the Caribou NF, the northern Sawtooth NF, and the eastern Salmon Challis NF along with the adjacent BLM lands. The showers and thunderstorms shift eastward on Wed, affecting the Caribou-Targhee NF mainly, along with nearby BLM lands. Wind will increase, but humidity should remain high in the windiest parts in the Snake River plain and southern highlands of Idaho. The hazard lessens from there into the weekend, with another low approaching and bringing precipitation back by Sun. Messick HYDROLOGY...Some minor flooding in Cassia and Minidoka Counties in the late evening and early morning appears to have subsided, and the Flood Advisory for this area was allowed to expire. Flooding continues on several rivers including the Big Wood at Hailey, the Big Lost at Howell Ranch, Antelope Creek north of Arco, the Big Lost below the Mackay Reservoir, the Big Lost near Arco, the Portneuf at Pocatello and Topaz and the Bear River at the Wyoming border. The Big Lost River below Mackay Reservoir is currently under a flood warning as well. The Big Lost near Arco is under a flood advisory. All these sites are running above normal due to high mountain snow melt and recent moderate to heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall will push all these rivers (and others) higher than current flows. All or portions of central and eastern Idaho are under a MARGINAL RISK of excessive rainfall through midweek. The forecasts are trending toward lower chances of rain, especially heavy rainfall, for the latter part of the week and into next weekend. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Forest Service road 135 washed away near the intersection of Bear Creek and Antelope Pass Roads. Rainfall combined with snow melt continued to create flooding in the Salmon Challis National Forest.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1115901.