Winter Storm and Cold in Texas, January 30 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 306 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
Update:
/Today Through Tuesday/

We'll see a couple of strong shortwave disturbances ejecting
northeast from the subtropical branch of the split flow jet
stream. These successive shortwaves will originate from the
Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, then race northeast across
Mexico and impact the North-Central Texas area, as well as the
Southern Plains. Usually this wouldn't be anything to write home
about, however, a shallow arctic airmass approximately 2.5-3 kft
is already in place at the surface with sub-freezing temperatures
between the mid 20s to lower 30s. A significant "warm nose" was
centered around 825mb-850mb with temperatures around 10 deg C (or
around 50 degrees F) above the shallow, but dense and chilly
arctic airmass.

Our first of several disturbances will likely act upon the
current dry atmospheric column and be "primer" to help moisture
and cool down the atmospheric column above the arctic frontal
inversion near the surface. As we progress through the morning
hours into this afternoon, light rain showers will initially mix
with melting sleep for some spotty and light freezing rain or
drizzle through the evening commute forthcoming this evening. With
ground temps continuing to fall and subfreezing temperatures in
place, elevated surfaces such as bridges/overpasses will initially
be the first to ice up and become slick for those commuting thanks
to no ground below touching these surfaces to keep them above
freezing. Meanwhile, steeper mid level lapse rates, extremely low,
secondary freezing levels, and 200-400 J/KG of MUCAPE across
eastern Central Texas may be enough to result in a few strong to
marginally severe storms across the Lower Brazos and Trinity River
Valley for strong updrafts in the 850mb-700mb layer for some hail
to fall across these areas. Meanwhile the further north/northwest
you go, the arctic air will be slightly deeper and cold atmospheric
column. The combination of strong ascent, elevated instability y
above the arctic air, some convective "bursts" of sleet may overtake
the spotty light freezing rain and create some slushy travel concerns
and slick highways and roads.

It wont' be precipitating the entire time, but trying to define
these brief, quiet windows of dry weather is about near impossible.
Another mid level impulse within the southern branch of the
westerlies upstream over Mexico will impact the forecast areas
beginning late Tuesday morning and continuing off/on through
Tuesday night. After a frigid start in the 20s to mid 30s (eastern
Central TX), very little diurnal warm up is expected with much of
North Texas lucky to reach near or at freezing for the afternoon
high. Slightly warmer high temperatures in the mid 30s is expected
across Central and East Texas with persistent cloud cover and
periods of rain mixing with, or changing over to sleet.

Bottom line: Upwards to 0.75-1.5 inches of water equivalent or a
mixture with rain will occur during this 36-48 hour period. I
recommend that if you don't have to be on the roads, then
discipline yourself to wait it out in a warm home, vehicle,
business, or any shelter from the chilly weather outside. Of
course, if you have to be outside and head for work or go to
school, be sure to allow extra time and to take it cautiously and
slow. The Winter Storm Watch that was out for all but our far
southeastern counties was upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for
ALL of North and Central Texas for the sake of simplicity the
possible widespread travel impacts that are expected to evolve
with time Monday night through Tuesday afternoon and evening. It
doesn't take much ice or melted sleet that refreezes at night to
cause very slick and hazardous travel conditions...even on the
more well-traveled roads, highways, and interstates. Stay safe out
there folks! Old man Winter isn't done with us just yet as we
move ever so closer to Valentines Day and then early Spring.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 438 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/
/Tuesday Night Through the Upcoming Weekend/

With accumulations of ice (and some sleet) already in place, a
subsequent round of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday will only worsen conditions. Near steady temperatures
Tuesday night will demonstrate a slow decline with the entire
region at or below freezing by daybreak Wednesday. The gradient of
surface temperatures, along with a steady increase in the depth of
the sub-freezing air from southeast to northwest, will result in
a grab bag of precipitation types. Rain will transition to a
mixture of rain and freezing rain in our southeast with freezing
rain dominating the population centers along the I-35 corridor.
Sleet will accompany the freezing rain with the potential for all
frozen precipitation in our northwest early Wednesday. With
multiple days of surface cooling and ice/sleet already on the
ground, a much greater portion of this precipitation will
accumulate. The overnight period Tuesday night into Wednesday
could yield additional ice amounts near 1/4 inch where freezing
rain dominates; this is significant icing, which would result in
treacherous driving conditions. While this axis of greatest
impacts to travel may be adjusted with future forecasts, it is
expected to include the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

Waves of precipitation will continue throughout the day Wednesday.
The intensity of the precipitation may reduce the proportion that
accumulates while also imparting some heat to the surface layer,
which would otherwise struggle to warm. Pockets of moderate to
heavy rainfall may actually melt some of our ice. Even with these
processes, daytime temperatures will still be very cold,
potentially remaining below freezing where ice accumulations are
the greatest. The high temperature forecast continues to trend
colder, with 30s across nearly the entire region, but even that
may be too optimistic. But for much of the region, a slowly
warming boundary layer should shift the freezing rain line to
northwest over the course of the day.

Negligible advection and additional precipitation from the warmer
cloud layer may prevent temperatures from dropping Wednesday
night, reducing the extent of any additional wintry precipitation
into Thursday morning. Temperatures across the Big Country and our
northwestern zones may still be governed by lingering ice, and a
non-zero potential for additional freezing rain will exist. The
current forecast package will keep the weather grids all rain, but
this will continue to assessed as the impacts of the preceding
rounds are better understood. A final round of showers late
Thursday will bring an end to our multi-day event as the parent
cyclone transits the region. The sunshine will then return, with
temperatures climbing back above normal for the first weekend of
February.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Light freezing drizzle and pockets of light freezing rain have
developed across North and Central Texas with low MVFR and IFR
cigs still socked in across the area. This will continue
throughout the afternoon, with another round of freezing rain
arriving from the west sometime between 20-23Z. Occasional bursts
of sleet will be possible with this round of precipitation until
it exits the region early this evening.

Patchy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may stick around
tonight and might eventually need to be added to the TAF.
However, given its patchy nature, it was excluded for now.

Another round of freezing rain is expected to arrive tomorrow
morning. The current TAF advertises a 14Z arrival; however, it
could arrive as early as 11-12Z. Freezing rain and occasional
sleet are expected to persist for much of the day tomorrow. There
could be occasional breaks in precipitation across D10; however,
confidence in when these might occur is very low at this time.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    31  28  31  29  37 /  30  30 100  80  90
Waco                33  31  34  30  37 /  40  50 100  90  90
Paris               32  28  33  30  37 /  40  50  90  70  90
Denton              30  25  29  25  36 /  30  30 100  70  90
McKinney            31  27  31  27  37 /  40  30 100  80  90
Dallas              32  29  33  30  37 /  40  30 100  80  90
Terrell             33  29  32  30  38 /  40  50 100  90  90
Corsicana           33  29  34  31  40 /  40  60 100  90  90
Temple              32  29  34  30  37 /  30  50  80  90  90
Mineral Wells       27  24  29  25  35 /  20  30  80  80  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
449 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
449 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Freezing rain and some sleet will impact much of the region today.
Road conditions will worsen tonight with additional wintry
precipitation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Additional rounds of freezing rain and sleet are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ice accumulation will result in significant impacts to
travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.